UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Daily Monitor Weekly Monitor Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- Firms are putting the Budget circus behind them, despite a disappointing headline PMI.
- Surveys of job growth improved in December, and redundancies dropped after a post-Budget surge.
- The DMP shows wage growth and inflation stuck well above target-consistent rates.
- We expect CPI inflation to tick up to 3.3% in December, from 3.2%, as tobacco duties rise.
- A later CPI collection date than we assume would tip our forecast to 3.4% via higher airfares inflation.
- Strong BRC Shop Prices for clothes in December pose an upside risk to our forecast.
- Look past the disappointing headline PMI for December; forward-looking balances improved.
- The Q4 PMI is consistent with 0.0-to-0.2% growth, but new orders point to an improvement in January.
- Price pressures remain stubborn despite weak jobs, which will keep the MPC cautious.
- The story of 2025 was growth averaging close to potential but inflation much higher than expected.
- We see similar trends in 2026, with growth rebounding in Q1 and inflation proving persistent.
- We expect the MPC to end its rate-cutting cycle with a 25bp Bank Rate reduction in April.
- The MPC squeezed in a fourth rate cut for 2025 in response to weak wage, growth and inflation data.
- But rate-setters suggested limited room for more cuts, surprising the market hawkishly.
- We expect one more cut in April now, but that could easily be knocked off course by stubborn wages.
- An MPC interest rate cut today is beyond doubt after inflation undershot the MPC’s forecast by 20bp.
- We add an April rate cut to our forecast too, although that is a finely balanced call still…
- ...Because underlying inflation pressure remains much firmer than the headline inflation drop suggests.
- Chaos running up to the November Budget hit hiring, but by less than payrolls suggest.
- Payrolls will be revised better, vacancies are rising, and jobless claims are down on a year earlier.
- The MPC has enough evidence to cut on Thursday, but stubborn pay growth will keep it cautious.
- GDP disappointed expectations, falling 0.1% month-to-month in October, as services output fell sharply.
- Autos production will boost activity in November, and a number of erratic falls should rebound...
- This week’s data have a high bar to keep the MPC on hold, but little room remains to keep cutting in 2026.
- A food-price drop and tobacco-duty base effects should lower CPI inflation to 3.5% in November.
- We are tracking a chunky hotel-price rise, while a large airfares base effect will drop out of the figures...
- …So, we look for CPI services inflation to increase to 4.7% in November, from 4.5% in October.
- We expect the MPC to vote five-to-four to cut Bank Rate at its meeting on December 18.
- Hawks will likely note supply-side weakness, and that the Budget raises medium-term inflation a little.
- The MPC will need to change its guidance for gradual further cuts as it approaches neutral.
- We expect ‘final’ payrolls to fall by 13K month-to-month in November, as Budget worries hit jobs.
- The headline LFS unemployment rate will hold at 5.0% in October, as August’s single-month rise corrects.
- Pay growth to slow in October, but wage gains look set to stabilise over the coming 12 months.
- We expect CPI inflation to drop to 3.5% in November, from 3.6% in October.
- A month-to-month fall in food prices and base effects from duty hikes in 2024 will drag inflation lower.
- Our forecast for headline CPI inflation in November sees it 10bp higher than the MPC expects.
- Chaotic pre-Budget tax-hike speculation shifts the risk to our growth forecasts to the downside.
- The Chancellor’s decision to increase fuel duty from September 2026 raises our 2027 inflation forecast.
- We expect the MPC to cut in December and hold in 2026, but are close to adding an April 2026 cut too.
- Collapsing job growth in the November DMP survey leaves a December rate cut nailed on.
- But the DMP was sampled at the height of Budget chaos so will likely improve in December.
- The DMP shows wage and price disinflation is over for now, so the MPC will still have to be cautious.
- Our models indicate that the PMI is consistent with quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of just 0.1% in Q4.
- But the upward revision from the flash PMI suggests sentiment improved as the Budget became clearer.
- So, we see a decent chance of the PMI improving further in December.
- We expect manufacturing output to rebound in October, as car factories reopened after a cyber attack.
- Growth in consumer-facing services will ease as pre-Budget worries creep into activity.
- Underlying economic activity is still holding up close to trend, so spare capacity is emerging only slowly.
- Consumers added to their savings and took on less credit in October, as the Budget approached.
- Bank lending to firms continues to rise year-over-year, but net external finance raised by PNFCs dropped.
- The housing-market data remain solid; mortgage approvals eased only slightly and transactions rose.
- The Chancellor is gambling on the MPC cutting rates rapidly, but the Budget provides little reason to do so.
- We think gilts are ripe for a sell-off as the market digests the details of shaky Budget plans.
- This week’s data releases will show a only small hit to activity from months of pre-Budget speculation.
- A tax-and-spend budget that delayed fiscal consolidation will struggle to drive a sustained gilt rally.
- Measures to cut CPI inflation by 50bp in mid-2026 leave a December rate cut nailed on…
- …but the Budget will boost the MPC’s inflation forecasts fractionally from 2027.
- The Chancellor will likely to confirm a 4.1% rise in the National Living Wage in the Budget…
- …But 18-to-20-year-olds will see a much bigger rise, while the ‘Real Living Wage’ increases 6.7%.
- The BoE now expects a 3.5% rise in pay settlements in 2025, likely supported by hikes for the low paid.
