Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

UK Publications

Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Daily Monitor Chartbook Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)

1 April 2025 UK Monitor Consumers are back, cutting saving and spending on plastic

  • Consumers are raising credit-card borrowing rapidly and cutting saving to support spending.
  • Liquid asset accumulation shows households saving the least since August 2023.
  • Falling finance raised by corporates, however, suggests investment will stagnate in early 2025.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

March 2025 - UK Chartbook


GROWTH HOLDS UP AND INFLATION RISES...

  • …BUT US TARIFFS CAN UPEND THE OUTLOOK

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

28 March 2025 UK Monitor Inflation is still heading to 3.7% in the autumn

  • Just the third February fall in clothes prices in 18 years dragged inflation below consensus.
  • A March goods price rebound is a solid bet, so inflation will still likely surge to 3.5% in April.
  • The MPC will have to stay cautious, especially as services inflation pressures remain stubborn.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

27 March 2025 UK Monitor Chancellor springs few surprises in the Spring Statement

  • Chancellor Reeves cut spending to maintain £9.9B of headroom against her fiscal rules.
  • OBR forecast changes and spending cuts were close to expectations and modest.
  • Higher borrowing and back-loaded spending cuts are slightly hawkish for the MPC.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

26 March 2025 UK Monitor Growth has bottomed, and inflation remains too high

  • Better growth and rising inflation implied in the March PMI raise the risk of only one more rate cut this year.
  • The PMI now agrees with other surveys that employment is stalling rather than cratering.
  • The PMI is signalling a small increase in underlying services inflation pressure.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

25 March 2025 UK Monitor Cuts and creative accounting will restore the fiscal headroom

  • Higher gilt yields and weaker-than-expected taxes wipe out the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom.
  • Back-loaded welfare cuts and modest reductions to planned public spending can restore headroom.
  • Gilt issuance will reach a post-pandemic high of £313B in 2025/26.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

21 March 2025 UK Monitor MPC keeps the option to skip a quarter as job growth holds up

  • The surprisingly hawkish 8-to-1 vote to hold rates, and guidance changes, signal a more cautious MPC.
  • Saying policy is not “on a pre-set path” gives the MPC the option to skip a cut at May’s meeting.
  • The risk of a sharp job fall fades as the hard data hold up; pay growth remains too strong for 2% inflation. 

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

20 March 2025 UK Monitor Gilt yields to remain high as defence spending increases

  • Higher deficit spending to fund increased security commitments will weigh on gilts.
  • We raise our gilt yield forecasts to reflect our call that Bank Rate will settle at 4%, up from 3.75% previously.
  • Fewer interest rate cuts relative to major peers will support sterling.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

19 March 2025 UK Monitor CPI preview: holding at 3.0% as core inflation ticks up

  • Headline CPI inflation should hold at 3.0% in January, 0.2pp higher than rate-setters expect.
  • We expect hotel and phone app prices to push up services inflation to 5.1%, matching the MPC’s call.
  • February is the ‘calm before the storm’ of price resets; inflation will rise to 3.5% in April.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

18 March 2025 UK Monitor The MPC should expect more inflation persistence

  • The Bank of England is far too sanguine about elevated long-term consumer inflation expectations.
  • Five-year-ahead expectations hit a new high in Q1, adjusting for a methodology break in the BoE survey.
  • Public satisfaction in the BoE’s handling of inflation remains depressed, hindering its credibility.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

14 March 2025 UK Monitor House prices will continue to rise, defying higher stamp duty

  • House prices grew by 4.6% in 2024 as borrowing costs fell and affordability improved.
  • We continue to expect official house prices to rise by 4% year-over-year in 2025.
  • Sticky rates represent a downside risk to house prices, but homeowners can still bear the costs.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

13 March 2025 UK Monitor MPC preview: eight-to-one vote to hold, as wage gains stay strong

  • We expect the MPC to keep Bank Rate on hold next week, with an eight-to-one vote in favour.
  • GDP growth and inflation overshot MPC expectations, but services inflation and wages undershot.
  • We expect stubborn wage growth to limit the MPC to two more rate cuts this year, in May and November.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

12 March 2025 UK Monitor Labour-market preview: rising unemployment and strong wages

  • We look for a 28K month-to-month fall in February payrolls, which will eventually be revised up.
  • The unemployment rate should hold at 4.4% in January, although it could easily round up to 4.5%.
  • Pay growth is proving stubborn; we expect January private ex-bonus AWE to rise 0.4% month-to-month.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

11 March 2025 UK Monitor Defence spending will have to rise much more, boosting inflation

  • Raising UK defence spending to 2.5% of GDP will have little effect on growth or the Bank of England.
  • We expect the government eventually to go further, raising defence spending to at least 3.0% of GDP.
  • The resulting higher neutral rate means we see Bank Rate at 4.0% by end-2026, up from 3.75% previously.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

7 March 2025 UK Monitor GDP likely fell 0.1% month-to-month in January

  • We expect GDP to fall 0.1% month-to-month in January, as consumers stayed away from the pub.
  • Manufacturing output should also unwind from the sharp increase seen in December.
  • We continue to look for quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.3% in Q1, but downside risks are building.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

6 March 2025 UK Monitor Price pressures build as PMI employment balance plummets

  • The catastrophic PMI jobs balance suggests the UK is heading into recession.
  • But the PMI exaggerates weakness by measuring the breadth rather than extent of job changes.
  • Disinflation is over as the PMI shows firms passing payroll tax hikes and strong wages into prices.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

5 March 2025 UK Monitor CPI preview: on the cusp of 3.1%, as core inflation ticks up

  • We expect CPI inflation to stay at 3.0% in February, 0.2pp higher than the MPC’s forecast.
  • Food inflation should remain firm, while BRC non-food shop prices are rising faster than in 2024.
  • We now expect CPI inflation to peak at 3.8% in September; 4.0%-plus is possible.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

4 March 2025 UK Monitor Consumers are spending, but uncertainty hits investment hard

  • The rise in credit-card borrowing in January points to consumers recovering from October Budget wobbles.
  • Increasing mortgage approvals for house purchase signal a broad-based revival in buyer interest.
  • But falling finance raised suggests business investment has been hit hard by uncertainty.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

February 2025 - UK Chartbook

GROWTH HOLDS UP BETTER THAN SURVEYS IMPLY

  • …THE MPC CAN CUT ONLY TWICE MORE THIS YEAR

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

28 February 2025 UK Monitor Chancellor will meet her fiscal rule by cutting spending

  • Higher interest repayments and lower tax receipts will increase forecast government borrowing.
  • We estimate that the Chancellor’s £8.9B headroom against her fiscal rules has been wiped out.
  • We expect the Chancellor to respond on March 26 with back-loaded public spending cuts.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Region

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters
Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,