UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Chartbook
- Cautious guidance and strain on long-dated gilts suggest the MPC will slow the pace of QT.
- We expect rate-setters to opt for a reduced pace of £70B-per-year for the next 12 months from October.
- Level of reserves in the system is high, but use of the short-term repo facility indicates demand for liquidity.
- The insolvency rate remains low and steady, indicating that corporate distress is contained.
- Leading indicators suggest that insolvencies will remain around current levels in the coming months.
- Solid GDP growth and falling borrowing costs will limit corporate distress in H2.
- The PMI beat expectations and rose to a 12-month high in August.
- August’s flash PMI is consistent with quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.3% in Q3.
- Sticky inflation and strong growth mean the MPC will need to stay on hold for the rest of 2025.
- Food, energy-price increases and an erratic jump in airfares drove CPI inflation up to 3.8%.
- Underlying services inflation is easing but remains far too high for the MPC to cut rapidly.
- Headline CPI averaging 3.8% for the rest of 2025 means the MPC will have to stay on hold.
- Sterling has had a mixed year so far against peers, as policy uncertainty has soared.
- We expect less easing than the market, but fiscal worries will weigh on sterling come Budget time.
- Pantheon’s interest rate calls collectively imply cable at 1.35 and GBPEUR at 1.18 at end-2025.
- The ONS’s measure of house prices rebounded by 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis in May.
- Activity indicators and gains in the private-sector house price indices suggest another rise in June.
- Sticky interest rates are a risk to house price inflation, but we retain our call for prices to gain 3.75% in 2025.
- GDP growth beat consensus expectations in June, rising by 0.4% month-to-month.
- Quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.3% in Q2 was above the MPC’s latest forecast, 0.1%.
- The expenditure breakdown for GDP in H1 shows household spending growing at a healthy pace.
- We look for a 1.0% month-to-month rise in retail sales in July as surveys signal healthy consumer spending.
- Households appear confident and comfortable with their assets, so the saving rate should fall in H2.
- Rising inflation, falling jobs and fiscal worries remain risks to the outlook.
- Payrolls declined by 8K month-to-month in July, the smallest drop in six months.
- Redundancies fell and vacancies look to have stabilised; the worst of the job slowdown is over.
- Private-sector pay growth was below the MPC’s call in Q2, but it remains too high to cut rates rapidly.
- Public sector borrowing matched the OBR’s expectations to June on a cumulative basis…
- ...but policy U-turns and overoptimistic OBR growth forecasts mean the Chancellor faces a £13B hole.
- We expect back-loaded stealth and ‘sin’ tax hikes to cover most of the £20B gap against headroom.
- The MPC cut by 25bp but was much more hawkish, with a tighter-than-expected 5-to-4 vote in favour.
- The MPC added more cautious guidance, lifted its inflation forecasts and said upside risks had risen.
- So, we maintain our forecast for no more rate cuts this year, which the market moved closer to pricing.
- We expect CPI inflation to rise to 3.7% in July from 3.6% in June, as motor fuels and airfares rise.
- CPI collected close to school vacations should boost travel prices, while domestic hotel prices likely rose.
- We expect inflation to peak at 4.0% in September and still be at 3.7% in December.
- We expect GDP to rise 0.2% month-to-month in June, as retail sales, real estate and autos output rebound.
- Our call points to quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.2% in Q2, above the 0.1% forecast in the MPC’s May MPR.
- We think growth will run close to potential for the rest of 2025, giving the MPC little room for manoeuvre.
- We expect CPI inflation to rise to 3.7% in July from 3.6% in June, as motor fuel prices increase.
- We see upside risk to our goods price call after strong BRC Shop Price inflation and flash Eurozone CPI.
- We now expect inflation to peak at 4.0% in September, up from 3.8% previously, as food price inflation rises.
- Our central Bank Rate forecast is hawkish, assuming only one more cut this year and none next year.
- A probability-weighted average of three scenarios is more dovish but still above the market in 2026.
- Continued sharp payroll falls or easing inflation expectations would shift us to more dovish scenarios.
WEAK JOBS PUSHING THE MPC TO AN AUGUST CUT...
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate by 25bp on August 7 in response to weak payrolls.
- We expect two votes for a 50bp reduction, four for a 25bp cut and three for no change.
- The MPC will likely maintain “gradual and careful” guidance, but may need to mention neutral.
- Credit is flowing to businesses and households, as economic uncertainty falls and borrowing costs drop.
- Saving flows temporarily spiked on cash ISA rumours, but the trend remains for lower household saving.
- Rising mortgage approvals suggest that the slowdown in the housing market is over.
- We expect payrolls to be revised up to an 8K fall in June, and to drop by 7K in July.
- Vacancies leading indicators suggest the labour market is stabilising after-payroll-tax-hike disruption.
- We expect another solid private-sector ex-bonus AWE gain, at 0.4% month-to-month in June.
- The PMI’s headline activity index fell in July and signals quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.1% in Q3.
- But a short-lived rise in global trade policy uncertainty likely spooked firms, so we expect an upward revision.
- The PMI overstates job market weakness because of a sample seemingly skewed towards large firms.
