UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Chartbook
- The gilt market continues to function well, but yields have been volatile.
- The gilt curve has steepened as markets reprice for more interest rate cuts from the MPC.
- Longer-dated gilts have sold off and remain vulnerable to policy developments.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- A May rate cut is a racing certainty after CPI inflation undershot the MPC’s forecast in March.
- But underlying services inflation held steady at 4.5%, while tax hikes, government-set price increases…
- ...and unwinding erratic factors weighing on March inflation will still drive CPI inflation to 3.5% in April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Treat March’s huge payrolls drop with caution, it will very likely be revised up.
- Looking across the range of labour-market data, the picture remains one of gradual loosening.
- Pay growth remains far too high, but the hit to GDP growth from tariffs risks a faster job market easing.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Official house prices rose sharply in January, taking year-over-year house price inflation to a two-year high.
- House price inflation will ease to 4.0% year-over-year in December, as higher stamp duty curbs demand.
- Better affordability as markets price more rate cuts will be offset by weaker employment.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Multiplying ONS errors increasingly hint at systemic problems that could affect more data series.
- The saving rate has disconnected from its usual economic drivers, so it may have been mis-estimated.
- Household income based on unreliable official job data is particularly subject to risk of error, we think.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Slow progress in implementing the Bernanke review leaves us pessimistic about the resulting changes.
- Sub-optimal communication means the MPC will need higher interest rates than otherwise.
- The rapidly evolving trade war means we see three further 25bp cuts to Bank Rate in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We look for a 30K month-to-month fall in March payrolls, consistent with a 6k fall after revisions.
- The unemployment rate should tick up to 4.5% in February, from 4.4% in January.
- Pay growth remains sticky; we expect February private ex-bonus AWE to rise 0.3% month-to-month.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We still think tariffs will be stagflationary eventually, as countries retaliate and boost government spending.
- But the balance of risks has shifted to recession after President Trump doubled down over the weekend.
- We cut 2025 GDP growth to 0.7% but leave our rate forecasts unchanged, waiting for clarity on headlines.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We assume a 10% tariff on UK goods exports to the US lowers 2025 UK GDP growth by 0.2pp.
- But strengthening growth in services—immune from tariffs—shows that UK growth can hold up.
- Strong domestic price pressures will keep the MPC cautious; we still expect two more rate cuts this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect CPI inflation to decline to 2.7% in March, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- Petrol price falls will drag inflation down, while core price gains will remain firm.
- March is the calm before the storm of April price hikes, which should drive up headline inflation to 3.6%.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect zero GDP growth in February as services and construction offset falling industrial output.
- Risks to our call are broadly balanced, though manufacturing is subject to tariff-driven uncertainty.
- We continue to forecast 0.3% quarter-to-quarter GDP growth in Q1.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Consumers are raising credit-card borrowing rapidly and cutting saving to support spending.
- Liquid asset accumulation shows households saving the least since August 2023.
- Falling finance raised by corporates, however, suggests investment will stagnate in early 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
GROWTH HOLDS UP AND INFLATION RISES...
- …BUT US TARIFFS CAN UPEND THE OUTLOOK
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Just the third February fall in clothes prices in 18 years dragged inflation below consensus.
- A March goods price rebound is a solid bet, so inflation will still likely surge to 3.5% in April.
- The MPC will have to stay cautious, especially as services inflation pressures remain stubborn.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Chancellor Reeves cut spending to maintain £9.9B of headroom against her fiscal rules.
- OBR forecast changes and spending cuts were close to expectations and modest.
- Higher borrowing and back-loaded spending cuts are slightly hawkish for the MPC.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Better growth and rising inflation implied in the March PMI raise the risk of only one more rate cut this year.
- The PMI now agrees with other surveys that employment is stalling rather than cratering.
- The PMI is signalling a small increase in underlying services inflation pressure.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Higher gilt yields and weaker-than-expected taxes wipe out the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom.
- Back-loaded welfare cuts and modest reductions to planned public spending can restore headroom.
- Gilt issuance will reach a post-pandemic high of £313B in 2025/26.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The surprisingly hawkish 8-to-1 vote to hold rates, and guidance changes, signal a more cautious MPC.
- Saying policy is not “on a pre-set path” gives the MPC the option to skip a cut at May’s meeting.
- The risk of a sharp job fall fades as the hard data hold up; pay growth remains too strong for 2% inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Higher deficit spending to fund increased security commitments will weigh on gilts.
- We raise our gilt yield forecasts to reflect our call that Bank Rate will settle at 4%, up from 3.75% previously.
- Fewer interest rate cuts relative to major peers will support sterling.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Headline CPI inflation should hold at 3.0% in January, 0.2pp higher than rate-setters expect.
- We expect hotel and phone app prices to push up services inflation to 5.1%, matching the MPC’s call.
- February is the ‘calm before the storm’ of price resets; inflation will rise to 3.5% in April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
