UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line:Retail sales are trending up solidly.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence knocked by inflation and tax hike speculation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Consumers still look set to support GDP growth in H2.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Our central Bank Rate forecast is hawkish, assuming only one more cut this year and none next year.
- A probability-weighted average of three scenarios is more dovish but still above the market in 2026.
- Continued sharp payroll falls or easing inflation expectations would shift us to more dovish scenarios.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
WEAK JOBS PUSHING THE MPC TO AN AUGUST CUT...
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate by 25bp on August 7 in response to weak payrolls.
- We expect two votes for a 50bp reduction, four for a 25bp cut and three for no change.
- The MPC will likely maintain “gradual and careful” guidance, but may need to mention neutral.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Credit is flowing to businesses and households, as economic uncertainty falls and borrowing costs drop.
- Saving flows temporarily spiked on cash ISA rumours, but the trend remains for lower household saving.
- Rising mortgage approvals suggest that the slowdown in the housing market is over.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- We expect payrolls to be revised up to an 8K fall in June, and to drop by 7K in July.
- Vacancies leading indicators suggest the labour market is stabilising after-payroll-tax-hike disruption.
- We expect another solid private-sector ex-bonus AWE gain, at 0.4% month-to-month in June.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- We reiterate our Q2 GDP growth call of 0.2% quarter-to-quarter after retail sales improved in June.
- Over-50s’ confidence disconnected from spending, possibly as political views drive sentiment more.
- Under-50s are optimistic, consistent with retail volumes growing by 2% year-over-year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Manufacturing activity will continue to recover from the tariff-induced slowdown.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Enough for the MPC to cut, but watch for chunky revisions in the final release.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The PMI’s headline activity index fell in July and signals quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.1% in Q3.
- But a short-lived rise in global trade policy uncertainty likely spooked firms, so we expect an upward revision.
- The PMI overstates job market weakness because of a sample seemingly skewed towards large firms.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Vacancies are one of the least accurate leading indicators of near-term job growth.
- Moreover, high-frequency data suggest that vacancies have stabilised...
- ...In part as small firms’ hiring intentions recover sharply from payroll-tax-hike-induced falls in April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Autumn tax hikes are likely and will probably be backloaded.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We estimate that most of the fall in payrolls since October has been driven by payroll-tax hikes.
- 35K of the payroll drop likely reflects mismeasure-ment, as workers switch to self-employed status.
- Job growth should ease as firms complete their adjustment to the tax hikes.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Sticky wage and price gains are being caused in part by falling MPC credibility.
- Household inflation expectations sit higher than their relationship with inflation implies, and are still rising.
- The UK is an outlier in Europe, where inflation expectations seem to have behaved much better.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Jobs falls are easing and pay growth is far too high to deliver 2% inflation, but the MPC seems keen to cut anyway.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Prices will keep gaining as stamp duty disruption has further to unwind.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Inflation is proving sticky, with most of June's acceleration looking genuine.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A huge bounce in official retail sales is coming in June as seasonal distortions unwind.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
