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Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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Brazil's BCB indicates that it will tighten beyond neu- tral levels as the inflation outlook deteriorates.
The COPOM's hawkish rhetoric is good news in terms of re-anchoring inflation expectations.
Peru's BCRP will increase the main rate next week as the currency slide fuels inflation.
Peruvian New Sol — President Castillo already on fire
Chilean Peso —The copper-driven sell-off
Colombian Peso — Deteriorating fundamentals
Brazilian industrial production ended Q2 on a soft footing, but leading indicators point to a decent H2.
That said, supply-side constraints and rising prices remain a big near-term threat for manufacturers.
Mexico’s PMI remained resilient in July, but a modest downtrend likely will emerge in Q3.
Colombia’s central bank kept the main rate on hold, but the split Board introduced a clear hawkish tone.
Inflation is rising rapidly, and prospects remain grim; BanRep will hike rates next month.
Chile's economic recovery consolidated in June, thanks mainly to solid services activity.
Mexico's economy gathered speed in Q2, thanks to solid services activity and despite one-off shocks.
Manufacturing activity has stalled, due to global supply issues, but conditions likely will stabilise soon.
Further good news from Chile's retail sector and manufacturing ended Q2 on a solid footing.
Chile's central bank has joined the bandwagon of monetary policy normalisation that started in the region with Brazil and Brigade has expanded, more recently, to Banxico.
Mexico — A pause despite an improving outlook
Colombia — Improving as social tensions ease
Chile — Political uncertainty prevails
Continued improving global growth and its impact on the goods sector are particularly beneficial in LatAm, where the rapid recovery of commodity prices poses added upside risks as the economies gradually reopen.
High inflation is forcing LatAm policymakers to act earlier than expected.
Brazilian Real — Starting Q3 on a weak footing
Colombian Peso — Investment grade days are over
Chilean Peso —The copper-driven sell-off is easing
Colombia’s central bank, BanRep, left the reference rate on hold on Monday, at 1.75%, in line with market expectations.
LatAm FX markets have been under severe strain over the last week, following slightly hawkish comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve, suggesting policymakers are now ready to talk about tapering.
The May industrial production data, released on Friday, brought discouraging news about the state of the Mexican economy in the very near term, due to supply issues and temporary shocks. But we expect better news in Q3.
LatAm as a whole is gradually recovering from the Covid shock, despite a temporary bump in late Q1 and April.
The economic data flow in Brazil remains upbeat, following a temporary blip in late Q1, due to the worsening of the pandemic, which triggered localised lockdown measures and curfews.
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