Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

trade Central Banks

21 Sept 2021 July Activity was Solid in the Andes, but Political Risk is the Narrative

  • July activity was firm in Peru, but the slowdown narrative remains, due to increased political risk.
  • Capex likely will suffer next year, if the government takes a misstep; a downtrend is already emerging.
  • Chile's central bank minutes set the table for further bold rate hikes, neutrality is around the corner.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

8 Sept 2021 Mexico's Leading Indicators Point to a Modest Slowdown in Q3

  • PMI surveys in Mexico suggest that momentum shifted lower in August, due to supply shocks.
  • Consumer confidence deteriorated in Q3, on the back of the third Covid wave and high inflation.
  • Fixed investment stalled in June, but the rec

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

7 Sept 2021 BanRep Feels the Pressure from Accelerating Inflation; it will Act Soon

  • Inflation in Colombia rose sharply in most of Q3, de- spite a stuttering economic rebound in H1.
  • The FX sell-off and rising commodity prices will make life more difficult for behind-the-curve BanRep.
  • The economic recovery stalled in Q2, due mainly to social unrest; it will improve soon.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

31 Aug 2021 The Latest Covid Wave Continues to Ease, but Delta-Hit Mexico Still Lags

  • New Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations continue to fall in most of LatAm; Mexico still lags.
  • The Delta variant remains a key threat, so victory is still a way off, despite an improving vaccine rollout.
  • Brazil's economic recovery continues, but rising inflation and supply shocks are a real threat.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

11 Aug 2021 Temporary Shocks will Keep Brazil's Inflation Too High For Comfort in Q4

  • The jump in Brazil's IPCA inflation in July shows that temporary shocks are filtering through quickly.
  • Inflation will remain well above the target range this year, forcing the COPOM to act boldly soon.
  • Peru's central bank president agreed to continue in the post, boosting financial markets, for now.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

6 Aug 2021 High Inflation will Force Brazil's BCB to Hike Rates Beyond Neutral Levels

Brazil's BCB indicates that it will tighten beyond neu- tral levels as the inflation outlook deteriorates.

The COPOM's hawkish rhetoric is good news in terms of re-anchoring inflation expectations.

Peru's BCRP will increase the main rate next week as the currency slide fuels inflation.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

5 Aug 2021 High Political Risk in the Andes Offsetting Upbeat Economic News

Peruvian New Sol —  President Castillo already on fire

Chilean Peso —The copper-driven sell-off

Colombian Peso — Deteriorating fundamentals

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

4 Aug 2021 Manufacturing in Brazil Struggled in Q2, but Conditions will Improve Soon

Brazilian industrial production ended Q2 on a soft footing, but leading indicators point to a decent H2.

That said, supply-side constraints and rising prices remain a big near-term threat for manufacturers.

Mexico’s PMI remained resilient in July, but a modest downtrend likely will emerge in Q3.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

3 Aug 2021 BanRep Keeps Rates on Hold, but it will Hike Soon, as Inflation Bites

Colombia’s central bank kept the main rate on hold, but the split Board introduced a clear hawkish tone.

Inflation is rising rapidly, and prospects remain grim; BanRep will hike rates next month.

Chile's economic recovery consolidated in June, thanks mainly to solid services activity.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

2 Aug 2021 Mexico's Recovery Continues, as Spending on Services Ramps Up

Mexico's economy gathered speed in Q2, thanks to solid services activity and despite one-off shocks.

Manufacturing activity has stalled, due to global supply issues, but conditions likely will stabilise soon.

Further good news from Chile's retail sector and manufacturing ended Q2 on a solid footing.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

16 July 2021 Chile's Central Bank Joins the Monetary Tightening

Chile's central bank has joined the bandwagon of monetary policy normalisation that started in the region with Brazil and Brigade has expanded, more recently, to Banxico. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

15 July 2021 High Political Risk to Constrain the Commodity-Driven Rebound

Mexico — A pause despite an improving outlook

Colombia — Improving as social tensions ease

Chile — Political uncertainty prevails

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

14 July 2021 Rising Commodity Prices are Helping LatAm's Economic Upturn

Continued improving global growth and its impact on the goods sector are particularly beneficial in LatAm, where the rapid recovery of commodity prices poses added upside risks as the economies gradually reopen.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

8 July 2021 Temporary Downside Pressures; Q3 will be better

Brazilian Real — Starting Q3 on a weak footing

Colombian Peso — Investment grade days are over

Chilean Peso —The copper-driven sell-off is easing

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

30 June 2021 BanRep Keeps Rates on Hold, but Conditions are Deteriorating Rapidly

Colombia’s central bank, BanRep, left the reference rate on hold on Monday, at 1.75%, in line with market expectations.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

23 June 2021 LatAm FX Markets Under Strain as Global Conditions Turn Challenging

LatAm FX markets have been under severe strain over the last week, following slightly hawkish comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve, suggesting policymakers are now ready to talk about tapering.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

14 June 2021 Mexico's Industrial Sector Under Strain due to Temporary Shocks

The May industrial production data, released on Friday, brought discouraging news about the state of the Mexican economy in the very near term, due to supply issues and temporary shocks. But we expect better news in Q3.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

11 June 2021 Inflation Pressures Continue to Mount in Brazil and Mexico

LatAm as a whole is gradually recovering from the Covid shock, despite a temporary bump in late Q1 and April.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

9 June 2021 Solid Retail Sales Numbers in Brazil; the Outlook Remains Positive

The economic data flow in Brazil remains upbeat, following a temporary blip in late Q1, due to the worsening of the pandemic, which triggered localised lockdown measures and curfews.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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