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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

trade

21 Oct 2022 LatAm Monitor Politics Remains Centre Stage in a Complicated External Backdrop

The runoff polls continue to show Lula in the pole position, but anything can happen in a week.

The shambolic start to Gustavo Petro’s presidency will keep the COP and external accounts under strain.

Exports remain solid, but import contraction should help stabilize the trade deficit, albeit at a wide level.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

8 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor FX Update Bold Hikes Protect Currencies Against Political Risk

Brazilian Real — Will political risk sky-rocket soon?

Mexican Peso — Resilient, despite AMLO

Argentinian Peso — A new FX rate for soy exports

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

5 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor China's Economic Slowdown will Hurt LatAm Commodity Exports

  • China’s slowdown is bad news for LatAm, just as domestic demand suffers, due to high inflation.
  • Industrial output in Brazil remains resilient, but growth momentum will ease in the near term.
  • The switch in consumers’ spending to services from goods and global economic slowdown will hurt.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

30 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Mexico's Economic Recovery is Stalling, and Banxico is Watching

The Mexican economy remained relatively resilient in Q2, but momentum eased sequentially.
Downside risks will persist in the near term, forcing Banxico to slow the pace of tightening.
Core inflation, however, remains particularly sticky, complicating policymakers’ decisions.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

24 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Resilient Economic Activity in Peru, Despite Political Disruption

The Peruvian economy remained resilient in H1, despite elevated political uncertainty.

Domestic demand will slow marginally in H2, due to high inflation and increased interest rates.

External threats also remain significant, but the economy probably will weather the storm.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Economic Growth Falters in Chile, but Remains Resilient in Peru

Chile’s economy struggled in H1, and it is now practically in a technical recession.

The payback after a solid 2021 continues, and the near-term outlook remains grim.

Peru’s economic activity improved in June, despite rising inflation and tighter financial conditions.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

19 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Colombia's Impressive Economic Growth in H1 will Peter Out, Soon

Colombia’s Q2 GDP withstood an array of domestic and external shocks, but momentum will ease soon.

The current pace of economic activity is unsustainable; high inflation and uncertainty will bite.

BanRep will hike again in September; the bank is still behind the curve and key threats loom.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

17 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Inflation in Chile Likely will Ease in Q4, as the Recession Bites

Inflation is rising rapidly in Chile, led by rises in food and fuel prices, but the outlook is improving.

Favourable base effects, and flattening commodity prices, likely will help to bring inflation down soon.

A looming recession in H2 will also help to push prices down, allowing the BCCh to stop hiking rates.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

29 July 2022 Latin America Monitor Mexico's Massive Trade Deficit is Driven Mostly by Oil

Mexico's trade deficit increased in June, due mostly to rising oil imports, thanks to higher prices.

Exports are also performing strongly, particularly manufactured goods, but risks have emerged.

Colombia's BanRep will likely hike by another massive 150pbs today, and more tightening is coming.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

26 July 2022 Latin America Monitor High Inflation is Denting the Upturn in Mexico and Argentina

The IGAE report confirmed that Mexico’s economy remained resilient in Q2, but momentum is easing.

Argentina’s economic recovery continued in Q2, but the near-term outlook is negative...

...High inflation and tighter financial conditions will push the economy into a technical recession soon.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

18 July 2022 Chile's BCCh is Playing Harder, but Inflation Risks Continue to Mount

The inflation picture in Chile has deteriorated markedly, forcing the BCCh to increase rates boldly... 

...But the rapid tightening failed to bring the CLP under control, prompting FX intervention last week. 

Volatility likely will ease in the near term, but further rate hikes in the short run will be needed. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

14 July 2022 Battered by Deteriorating Domestic and External Conditions

Brazil — Increasing fiscal uncertainty is hurting

Mexico — Global risk aversion remains the drag

Chile — Hit by lower copper prices and politics

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

13 July 2022 Manufacturing Remains a Key Support for GDP Growth in Mexico

Industrial production in Mexico remains resilient, thanks mainly to solid manufacturing activity.

Activity in mining and construction continues to lag; deteriorating domestic conditions remain a drag.

AMLO is starting to bet on nearshoring, but he will have to stop clashing with businesses first.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

7 July 2022 Currencies Hit by Global Recession Fears

Mexican Peso — Global growth worries prevail

Colombian Peso — Down despite a moderated Petro

Chilean Peso — Hit by global recession fears

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

4 July 2022 Inflation in the Andes Remains High and Sticky

High and sticky inflation in the Andes is increasing the pressure on policymakers to act beyond Q3. 

The steady fall in currencies, due mainly to the hawkish Fed, is making things even more complicated. 

The strategy will be to act boldly now and bring the economy to a standstill, to allow rapid easing in H1. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

29 June 2022 Mexico's Trade Deficit Sank Further, due Mainly to High Oil Prices

Mexico’s deficit in May remained very large by past standards, due mainly to high energy prices.

The value of imports likely will continue to rise in Q3, but weaker domestic demand will be a drag later on.

Labour market conditions deteriorated, at the margin, in May, but enough to make Banxico uneasy.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

27 June 2022 Inflation Pressures Ease a Bit in Brazil; Mexico's IGAE Rebounds

Inflation is finally starting to show signs of softening in Brazil, but upward pressures in the core persist. 

Core CPI inflation likely will peak soon, allowing the COPOM to stop the tightening cycle in August. 

Mexico’s economic activity gathered speed in April, but the current pace is unsustainable. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

16 June 2022 Deteriorating Global Conditions Weigh on LatAm Markets

Brazil — Hurt by increased external noise

Colombia — Political risk is the near-term driver

Peru — Global concerns drag equities lower

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

9 June 2022 High Political Risk Limits the FX Rebound

Brazilian Real — Concerns about fiscal slippage

Mexican Peso — A decent near-term outlook

Colombian Peso — Anti-Establishment Populism Won 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

31 May 2022 Anti-Establishment Populism Won in Colombia's Presidential Vote

Gustavo Petro, the left-wing leader, clearly won the first round of Colombia’s presidential election.

He will face the former city mayor Rodolfo Hernández, who received the support of the defeated Fico.

This gives him the upper hand in next month's run- off, but even if Petro wins, Colombia will do well.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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