Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
The runoff polls continue to show Lula in the pole position, but anything can happen in a week.
The shambolic start to Gustavo Petro’s presidency will keep the COP and external accounts under strain.
Exports remain solid, but import contraction should help stabilize the trade deficit, albeit at a wide level.
Brazilian Real — Will political risk sky-rocket soon?
Mexican Peso — Resilient, despite AMLO
Argentinian Peso — A new FX rate for soy exports
The Mexican economy remained relatively resilient in Q2, but momentum eased sequentially.
Downside risks will persist in the near term, forcing Banxico to slow the pace of tightening.
Core inflation, however, remains particularly sticky, complicating policymakers’ decisions.
The Peruvian economy remained resilient in H1, despite elevated political uncertainty.
Domestic demand will slow marginally in H2, due to high inflation and increased interest rates.
External threats also remain significant, but the economy probably will weather the storm.
Chile’s economy struggled in H1, and it is now practically in a technical recession.
The payback after a solid 2021 continues, and the near-term outlook remains grim.
Peru’s economic activity improved in June, despite rising inflation and tighter financial conditions.
Colombia’s Q2 GDP withstood an array of domestic and external shocks, but momentum will ease soon.
The current pace of economic activity is unsustainable; high inflation and uncertainty will bite.
BanRep will hike again in September; the bank is still behind the curve and key threats loom.
Inflation is rising rapidly in Chile, led by rises in food and fuel prices, but the outlook is improving.
Favourable base effects, and flattening commodity prices, likely will help to bring inflation down soon.
A looming recession in H2 will also help to push prices down, allowing the BCCh to stop hiking rates.
Mexico's trade deficit increased in June, due mostly to rising oil imports, thanks to higher prices.
Exports are also performing strongly, particularly manufactured goods, but risks have emerged.
Colombia's BanRep will likely hike by another massive 150pbs today, and more tightening is coming.
The IGAE report confirmed that Mexico’s economy remained resilient in Q2, but momentum is easing.
Argentina’s economic recovery continued in Q2, but the near-term outlook is negative...
...High inflation and tighter financial conditions will push the economy into a technical recession soon.
The inflation picture in Chile has deteriorated markedly, forcing the BCCh to increase rates boldly...
...But the rapid tightening failed to bring the CLP under control, prompting FX intervention last week.
Volatility likely will ease in the near term, but further rate hikes in the short run will be needed.
Brazil — Increasing fiscal uncertainty is hurting
Mexico — Global risk aversion remains the drag
Chile — Hit by lower copper prices and politics
Industrial production in Mexico remains resilient, thanks mainly to solid manufacturing activity.
Activity in mining and construction continues to lag; deteriorating domestic conditions remain a drag.
AMLO is starting to bet on nearshoring, but he will have to stop clashing with businesses first.
Mexican Peso — Global growth worries prevail
Colombian Peso — Down despite a moderated Petro
Chilean Peso — Hit by global recession fears
High and sticky inflation in the Andes is increasing the pressure on policymakers to act beyond Q3.
The steady fall in currencies, due mainly to the hawkish Fed, is making things even more complicated.
The strategy will be to act boldly now and bring the economy to a standstill, to allow rapid easing in H1.
Mexico’s deficit in May remained very large by past standards, due mainly to high energy prices.
The value of imports likely will continue to rise in Q3, but weaker domestic demand will be a drag later on.
Labour market conditions deteriorated, at the margin, in May, but enough to make Banxico uneasy.
Inflation is finally starting to show signs of softening in Brazil, but upward pressures in the core persist.
Core CPI inflation likely will peak soon, allowing the COPOM to stop the tightening cycle in August.
Mexico’s economic activity gathered speed in April, but the current pace is unsustainable.
Brazil — Hurt by increased external noise
Colombia — Political risk is the near-term driver
Peru — Global concerns drag equities lower
Brazilian Real — Concerns about fiscal slippage
Mexican Peso — A decent near-term outlook
Colombian Peso — Anti-Establishment Populism Won
Gustavo Petro, the left-wing leader, clearly won the first round of Colombia’s presidential election.
He will face the former city mayor Rodolfo Hernández, who received the support of the defeated Fico.
This gives him the upper hand in next month's run- off, but even if Petro wins, Colombia will do well.
Filter by Keyword
Filter by Region
Filter by Publication Type
Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)
Latin America Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence