Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

metal Trade

1 Sept 2021 Chile's Retail Sector Started Q3 Strongly, Mining is Struggling

  • Chile's economy started the second half on a strong note; activity will continue to pick up steam.
  • The economy is rebounding, thanks to massive fiscal support and the improving Covid picture.
  • The labour market recovery continued in July, and leading indicators point to further strength in H2.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

13 Aug 2021 Brazil's Retail Sector, and Mexico's Manufacturing Stalled in late Q2

Consumers' spending in Brazil ended Q2 poorly, but it will improve soon as virus restrictions ease.

Mexico's industrial production fell in June, due mainly to the continued troubles in the auto sector.

Conditions will improve in the second half of the year, but supply-side disruptions will remain a drag.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

11 Aug 2021 Temporary Shocks will Keep Brazil's Inflation Too High For Comfort in Q4

  • The jump in Brazil's IPCA inflation in July shows that temporary shocks are filtering through quickly.
  • Inflation will remain well above the target range this year, forcing the COPOM to act boldly soon.
  • Peru's central bank president agreed to continue in the post, boosting financial markets, for now.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

10 Aug 2021 Core Inflation is Still Rising in Mexico, due to the Reopening of the Economy

Mexico's core inflation is at cyclical highs and rising; the reopening of the economy is mostly responsible.

Inflation will stay well above Banxico's target range over H2, forcing policymakers to hike interest rates.

Fixed investment and private consumption continued to recover in Q2, the near-term outlook is positive.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

6 Aug 2021 High Inflation will Force Brazil's BCB to Hike Rates Beyond Neutral Levels

Brazil's BCB indicates that it will tighten beyond neu- tral levels as the inflation outlook deteriorates.

The COPOM's hawkish rhetoric is good news in terms of re-anchoring inflation expectations.

Peru's BCRP will increase the main rate next week as the currency slide fuels inflation.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

5 Aug 2021 High Political Risk in the Andes Offsetting Upbeat Economic News

Peruvian New Sol —  President Castillo already on fire

Chilean Peso —The copper-driven sell-off

Colombian Peso — Deteriorating fundamentals

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

4 Aug 2021 Manufacturing in Brazil Struggled in Q2, but Conditions will Improve Soon

Brazilian industrial production ended Q2 on a soft footing, but leading indicators point to a decent H2.

That said, supply-side constraints and rising prices remain a big near-term threat for manufacturers.

Mexico’s PMI remained resilient in July, but a modest downtrend likely will emerge in Q3.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

3 Aug 2021 BanRep Keeps Rates on Hold, but it will Hike Soon, as Inflation Bites

Colombia’s central bank kept the main rate on hold, but the split Board introduced a clear hawkish tone.

Inflation is rising rapidly, and prospects remain grim; BanRep will hike rates next month.

Chile's economic recovery consolidated in June, thanks mainly to solid services activity.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

2 Aug 2021 Mexico's Recovery Continues, as Spending on Services Ramps Up

Mexico's economy gathered speed in Q2, thanks to solid services activity and despite one-off shocks.

Manufacturing activity has stalled, due to global supply issues, but conditions likely will stabilise soon.

Further good news from Chile's retail sector and manufacturing ended Q2 on a solid footing.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

28 July 2021 Mexico's Recovery Gathered Speed in May, Despite Temporary Shocks

Mexico's economic recovery continued to gather traction in Q2, thanks to improving services activity.

Manufacturing is struggling, due to supply issues, but conditions likely will stabilise over H2.

Brazil's external accounts remain solid, but the trend in key components is now rolling over.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

21 July 2021 Inflation Pressures are Easing in Argentina, but the Outlook is Grim

Argentina's inflation pressures continue to ease on a sequential basis, improving the ruling party's chances of performing well in the mid-term elections, slated for November.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

13 July 2021 Supply Issues are Hurting Mexico's Manufacturing Sector

We are expecting a 0.6% quarter-on-quarter rise in Mexican industrial output in Q2, slightly below our previous forecast, 0.8%, in the wake of May’s report.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

6 July 2021 Brazil's Industrial Recovery Resumed in May, and the Outlook is Benign

Brazil's industrial sector gathered momentum in mid-Q2, following a downtrend in the previous three months, when the sector was struggling with the worsening of the pandemic, and supply-related issues. Industrial production rose 1.4% month-on-month in May, following a 1.5% drop in April. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

30 June 2021 BanRep Keeps Rates on Hold, but Conditions are Deteriorating Rapidly

Colombia’s central bank, BanRep, left the reference rate on hold on Monday, at 1.75%, in line with market expectations.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

29 June 2021 Improving External Account Picture thanks to Better Global Growth

External accounts in LatAm likely will continue to improve over the next few months, thanks to the global economic recovery. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

23 June 2021 LatAm FX Markets Under Strain as Global Conditions Turn Challenging

LatAm FX markets have been under severe strain over the last week, following slightly hawkish comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve, suggesting policymakers are now ready to talk about tapering.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

4 June 2021 Mexico and Peru, Elections, Markets, and the Recovery in a Covid World

This Sunday, all eyes will be focused on the final result of the midterm elections in Mexico and the presidential run-off in Peru.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

2 June 2021 Chile's Recovery Stalled in April, but Momentum will Improve Soon

Data released in recent days have confirmed that the Chilean economy struggled in early Q2, due to the worsening of the pandemic which triggered localised lockdowns and curfews. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

1 June 2021 Brazil's Q1 GDP will Confirm a Resilient Economy Despite Covid

Data slated for today likely will confirm that Brazil's economic recovery consolidated in the first quarter and the near-term outlook remains benign. Real GDP likely rose about 2.0% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, following a 3.2% surge in Q4.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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