Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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- July activity was firm in Peru, but the slowdown narrative remains, due to increased political risk.
- Capex likely will suffer next year, if the government takes a misstep; a downtrend is already emerging.
- Chile's central bank minutes set the table for further bold rate hikes, neutrality is around the corner.
Colombia’s economic recovery continues; output is well above its pre-crisis level, but risks are emerging.
The pace of the rebound will ease soon, due to high inflation and tighter monetary policy.
Political risk is diminishing, thanks to a social-driven tax reform, but more tightening is coming.
- Brazil's economic upturn continued in Q3, but high inflation and tighter policy will dent the rebound soon.
- The Argentine president's nightmare worsens as his coalition tumbles and the economy deteriorates.
- Inflation is high, and sluggish demand, political risk and policy heterodoxy will limit the upturn.
- Mexico — Benign conditions prevail, for now
- Colombia — A decent rebound, but risks prevail
- Peru — Up, thanks to politics and commodities
- Brazil's retail sector started Q3 on a solid footing, thanks to lower Covid cases and further fiscal aid.
- The recovery, however, still looks set to slow over the coming months, as inflation picks up.
- A solid start to Q3 for Mexico's industrial sector, despite weakening survey data.
- Argentina's economic outlook and markets improve as the ruling party falters in BA province vote.
- Peru's BRCP increased interest rates last week; infla- tion rebounding on the back of the PEN sell-off.
- The door is open to further data-dependent hikes; politics and global volatility will force the Board to act.
- Brazil's inflation surprises to the upside in August; the near-term outlook remains challenging.
- A sharp inflation rebound supports the case for interest rates above neutral in the near term.
- Inflation in Chile overshot expectations, again; the BCCh will deliver more tightening to tame pressures.
- Increased inflation pressures and prospects of DM policy normalisation complicate LatAm policy.
- Inflation in Mexico slowed in August, thanks mainly to price controls, but core pressures are building up.
- The 2022 budget proposal signals a pledge to fiscal discipline, but some of the assumptions are shaky.
- In one line: Grim, supporting the case for interest rates above neutral.
- Colombian Peso — Pressures ease, for now
- Argentinian Peso — A brewing crisis
- Brazilian Real — Mr. Bolsonaro in the spotlight, again
- In one line: Above expectations, again.
- PMI surveys in Mexico suggest that momentum shifted lower in August, due to supply shocks.
- Consumer confidence deteriorated in Q3, on the back of the third Covid wave and high inflation.
- Fixed investment stalled in June, but the rec
- Inflation in Colombia rose sharply in most of Q3, de- spite a stuttering economic rebound in H1.
- The FX sell-off and rising commodity prices will make life more difficult for behind-the-curve BanRep.
- The economic recovery stalled in Q2, due mainly to social unrest; it will improve soon.
- The Chilean economy continues to surprise to the upside, and the good news will continue over Q4…
- …But risks are tilting to the downside due to higher inflation pressures and tighter economic policies.
- Peru's inflation rose sharply in August, due mainly to the lagged effect of the PEN's sell-of
- The Brazilian economy stalled in Q2, due mainly to ongoing manufacturing issues; Q3 will be better.
- Near-real-time indicators and sector data signal a decent expansion ahead, particularly in services.
- BCCh hiked rates boldly, leaving the door open to further tightening as inflation risks increase.
- Chile's economy started the second half on a strong note; activity will continue to pick up steam.
- The economy is rebounding, thanks to massive fiscal support and the improving Covid picture.
- The labour market recovery continued in July, and leading indicators point to further strength in H2.
- New Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations continue to fall in most of LatAm; Mexico still lags.
- The Delta variant remains a key threat, so victory is still a way off, despite an improving vaccine rollout.
- Brazil's economic recovery continues, but rising inflation and supply shocks are a real threat.
Consumers' spending in Brazil ended Q2 poorly, but it will improve soon as virus restrictions ease.
Mexico's industrial production fell in June, due mainly to the continued troubles in the auto sector.
Conditions will improve in the second half of the year, but supply-side disruptions will remain a drag.
Mexico — Doing well, despite many challenges
Chile — Politics and copper prices cap the upturn
Peru — Political uncertainty will remain a drag
- The jump in Brazil's IPCA inflation in July shows that temporary shocks are filtering through quickly.
- Inflation will remain well above the target range this year, forcing the COPOM to act boldly soon.
- Peru's central bank president agreed to continue in the post, boosting financial markets, for now.