Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Inflation

22 Sept 2021 Political Risk and Inflation Fears will Continue to Take Centre Stage

  • Rising political risk continues to cloud prospects for a sustained economic rebound and capex in LatAm.
  • Argentina’s President reshuffles his cabinet, and announces measures to bring back voters.
  • Chile's Presidential candidate Boric leads the polls ahead of November's election, but the race is open.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

21 Sept 2021 July Activity was Solid in the Andes, but Political Risk is the Narrative

  • July activity was firm in Peru, but the slowdown narrative remains, due to increased political risk.
  • Capex likely will suffer next year, if the government takes a misstep; a downtrend is already emerging.
  • Chile's central bank minutes set the table for further bold rate hikes, neutrality is around the corner.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

20 Sept 2021 Colombia's Recovery Consolidated in Q3, but Momentum will Ease Soon

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Colombia’s economic recovery continues; output is well above its pre-crisis level, but risks are emerging.

The pace of the rebound will ease soon, due to high inflation and tighter monetary policy.

Political risk is diminishing, thanks to a social-driven tax reform, but more tightening is coming.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

17 Sept 2021 Brazil's Recovery Continues; Argentina's Political Mess Worsens

  • Brazil's economic upturn continued in Q3, but high inflation and tighter policy will dent the rebound soon.
  • The Argentine president's nightmare worsens as his coalition tumbles and the economy deteriorates.
  • Inflation is high, and sluggish demand, political risk and policy heterodoxy will limit the upturn.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

16 Sept 2021 Less-Grim Political Conditions Support a Modest Equity Rebound

  • Mexico — Benign conditions prevail, for now
  • Colombia — A decent rebound, but risks prevail
  • Peru — Up, thanks to politics and commodities

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

15 Sept 2021 Retail Activity in Brazil Rebounded in July, but Momentum will Ease Soon

  • Brazil's retail sector started Q3 on a solid footing, thanks to lower Covid cases and further fiscal aid.
  • The recovery, however, still looks set to slow over the coming months, as inflation picks up.
  • A solid start to Q3 for Mexico's industrial sector, despite weakening survey data.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

14 Sept 2021 Argentina's Markets Rejoice as Ruling Party Loses Momentum

  • Argentina's economic outlook and markets improve as the ruling party falters in BA province vote.
  • Peru's BRCP increased interest rates last week; infla- tion rebounding on the back of the PEN sell-off.
  • The door is open to further data-dependent hikes; politics and global volatility will force the Board to act.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

13 Sept 2021 Accelerating Inflation in Brazil Points to a Selic Rate Above Neutral Soon

  • Brazil's inflation surprises to the upside in August; the near-term outlook remains challenging.
  • A sharp inflation rebound supports the case for interest rates above neutral in the near term.
  • Inflation in Chile overshot expectations, again; the BCCh will deliver more tightening to tame pressures.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

10 Sept 2021 Headline Inflation Slows in Mexico, thanks to AMLO, Core is Climbing

  • Increased inflation pressures and prospects of DM policy normalisation complicate LatAm policy.
  • Inflation in Mexico slowed in August, thanks mainly to price controls, but core pressures are building up.
  • The 2022 budget proposal signals a pledge to fiscal discipline, but some of the assumptions are shaky.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

LatAm Datanote: Inflation IPCA, Brazil, August 2021

  • In one line: Grim, supporting the case for interest rates above neutral.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

9 Sept 2021 A Modest Rebound as Political Risk Eases, but Tensions are Brewing

  • Colombian Peso — Pressures ease, for now
  • Argentinian Peso — A brewing crisis
  • Brazilian Real — Mr. Bolsonaro in the spotlight, again

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

8 Sept 2021 Mexico's Leading Indicators Point to a Modest Slowdown in Q3

  • PMI surveys in Mexico suggest that momentum shifted lower in August, due to supply shocks.
  • Consumer confidence deteriorated in Q3, on the back of the third Covid wave and high inflation.
  • Fixed investment stalled in June, but the rec

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

7 Sept 2021 BanRep Feels the Pressure from Accelerating Inflation; it will Act Soon

  • Inflation in Colombia rose sharply in most of Q3, de- spite a stuttering economic rebound in H1.
  • The FX sell-off and rising commodity prices will make life more difficult for behind-the-curve BanRep.
  • The economic recovery stalled in Q2, due mainly to social unrest; it will improve soon.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

6 Sept 2021 Central Banks in the Andes will Continue to Hike Rates in Q4

  • The Chilean economy continues to surprise to the upside, and the good news will continue over Q4…
  • …But risks are tilting to the downside due to higher inflation pressures and tighter economic policies.
  • Peru's inflation rose sharply in August, due mainly to the lagged effect of the PEN's sell-of

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

3 Sept 2021 Brazil's Q2 GDP Stalled, but Q3 Data will be Better as Some Shocks Ease

  • The Brazilian economy stalled in Q2, due mainly to ongoing manufacturing issues; Q3 will be better.
  • Near-real-time indicators and sector data signal a decent expansion ahead, particularly in services.
  • BCCh hiked rates boldly, leaving the door open to further tightening as inflation risks increase.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

1 Sept 2021 Chile's Retail Sector Started Q3 Strongly, Mining is Struggling

  • Chile's economy started the second half on a strong note; activity will continue to pick up steam.
  • The economy is rebounding, thanks to massive fiscal support and the improving Covid picture.
  • The labour market recovery continued in July, and leading indicators point to further strength in H2.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

31 Aug 2021 The Latest Covid Wave Continues to Ease, but Delta-Hit Mexico Still Lags

  • New Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations continue to fall in most of LatAm; Mexico still lags.
  • The Delta variant remains a key threat, so victory is still a way off, despite an improving vaccine rollout.
  • Brazil's economic recovery continues, but rising inflation and supply shocks are a real threat.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

13 Aug 2021 Brazil's Retail Sector, and Mexico's Manufacturing Stalled in late Q2

Consumers' spending in Brazil ended Q2 poorly, but it will improve soon as virus restrictions ease.

Mexico's industrial production fell in June, due mainly to the continued troubles in the auto sector.

Conditions will improve in the second half of the year, but supply-side disruptions will remain a drag.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

12 Aug 2021 Stocks Under Pressure Due to High Political Risk and Rising Inflation Pressures

Mexico — Doing well, despite many challenges

Chile — Politics and copper prices cap the upturn

Peru — Political uncertainty will remain a drag

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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