Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- LatAm central banks are taking a cautious approach to monetary policy due to a still-hawkish Fed.
- Mexico’s economic activity rebounded solidly in February, helping to avert a sharper downturn in Q1.
- Increased fiscal support is boosting growth, but rising real rates pose challenges in H2.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Thousands of Colombians protest against Petro’s economic and social reforms; good news for the COP.
- Economic activity is struggling to gain momentum, due to tight financial conditions and policy risk.
- The improving external accounts provide BanRep with flexibility; we expect further bold rate cuts in Q2.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Retail sales in Mexico performed poorly in Q1, due mainly to tighter financial conditions.
- The bad news won’t last; the sector will be supported by falling inflation and lower rates.
- The outlook, however, will likely be tempered by remittance trends and external risks.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s economic activity saw a solid improvement in February, as private consumption gathers speed.
- Increased fiscal uncertainty and a cautious US Fed complicate Brazil’s economic and rates outlook.
- The minutes of the last BCCh policy meeting strike a more dovish tone, but things have changed recently.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A solid start to the year, but downside risks are emerging.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Revised fiscal forecasts presented to Congress
- Mexico — Recap of the first presidential debate
- Colombia — Concerns over Petro’s populist measures
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Fiscal and exchange rate measures curb Argentina’s inflation picture; we expect further good news.
- Argentina’s fiscal situation is showing signs of improvement as the government tackles the deficit.
- Peru’s economy is gaining momentum amid low inflation and looser monetary policy.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s industrial sector will drag on Q1 GDP amid construction woes, despite manufacturing reviving.
- Residential construction is struggling, but infrastructure is showing signs of improvement.
- The long downturn in manufacturing output is over, according to the PMI, but downside risks remain.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Resuming rate cuts but keeping a cautious bias.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Peru’s BCRP surprised markets once again, with a 25bp rate cut to 6%; more easing is on the cards.
- Congress approved a bill allowing pension-fund withdrawals; financial markets will suffer temporarily.
- Argentina’s BRCA cut rates to 70%, as inflation pressures are easing on a month-to-month basis.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s March inflation data clear a path for solid monetary easing by the COPOM in May…
- …But robust private consumption could mean the BCB adopts a more measured stance in H2.
- Retail sales rebounded sharply in Q1 amid improving credit conditions; will this trend continue?
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Back to the target range, and the near-term outlook is benign.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil - Tailwinds amid political and fiscal headwinds
- Colombia - Supported by economic tailwinds, but…
- Peru - Slump as pension-fund withdrawal fears loom
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Further interest rate cuts likely, as inflation pressures continue to ease.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The minutes of the last policy meeting indicated a more hawkish stance from Banxico than expected.
- But the March inflation data undershot expectations, which will allow the Board to ease its tone.
- This, combined with the expected accommodative stance from the Fed, means more rate cuts ahead.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Disinflation consolidated in the Andes in March, but we expect the downtrend to continue in Q2.
- This will provide room for further policy accommodation, but policymakers will proceed with caution…
- …And rate cuts will be modest, given a number of domestic and external threats.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s industrial output is weak in Q1, due to tight financing conditions and despite some bright spots.
- Rising business confidence signals manufacturing will gain momentum in Q2.
- The external accounts remain robust; the 12-month trade surplus is at historic highs…will this continue?
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- A busy week for Andean economies amid economic and political developments.
- Chile’s central bank maintained its stance of gradual easing and flagged inflation risks.
- Upward revisions to growth and inflation forecasts in the IPoM point to a smoother easing path ahead.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazilian Real — Domestic and external factors weighing
- Mexican Peso — Outperforming amid attractive carry
- Colombian Peso — Attractive carry, supportive oil dynamics
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
