Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- Colombia’s economy performed relatively well in November, and the outlook is improving; just.
- S&P lowered the country’s outlook to ‘negative’ from ‘stable’ due to the sluggish economic growth.
- A rating downgrade will likely be avoided, but President Petro’s policy missteps are a real threat.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Undershooting expectations, by some way.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Struggling, despite relatively positive sectoral data in November.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Activity in Mexico’s retail sector is slowing, despite falling inflation and a still-healthy labour market…
- …But rising real interest rates and softening remittances from abroad will constrain the sector.
- Consumers will likely become more cautious until key domestic and external threats disappear.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Retail sales in Brazil grew strongly in November, thanks mainly to the Black Friday boost.
- Lower inflation and a resilient labour market are also offsetting the drag from rising real interest rates.
- Economic activity was resilient in Q4, but downside forces will prevent a rapid upturn any time soon.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A good report, boosted by Black Friday sales.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico — Presidential election hotting up
- Argentina — Pragmatic chainsaw switched on
- Chile — Pension reform continues to advance in Congress
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Milei has been busy in his first month in charge of Argentina’s economy, but it hasn’t been easy.
- Inflation turned out a bit better than expected, at a still-ugly 211%, the highest since 1990.
- The IMF backed Milei’s economic plan, approving the next disbursement under the current deal.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Disinflation continues in Peru, as temporary shocks fade and domestic demand remains sluggish.
- We look for the BCRP to reduce rates to about 5% by the end of H1 2024...
- ...But risks to the inflation outlook have increased at the margin in recent days, particularly geopolitics.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s industry is weakening, and risks are tilted to the downside as US manufacturing struggles.
- Construction activity is slowing, but this follows an impressive and unsustainable H1 2023.
- Geopolitical threats, alongside high interest rates and the US and Mexican elections, are the key risks.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: More rate cuts to come, despite the still-cautious tone.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Inflation pressures in Brazil remained under control at the end of 2023, as domestic demand eased.
- Favourable inertia effects and the BRL’s performance in recent quarters will push inflation down in H1.
- Further good news on the inflation story in Colombia; the COP’s rebound last year will be a drag in Q1.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — At an all-time high, and 2024 looks solid
- Mexico — Improving, but elections could bring noise
- Chile — Rally to continue after political risk eases
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Inflation in Mexico edged up in December, chiefly due to non-core pressures, as bad weather hit.
- Core inflation continues to fall, at the margin, thanks to the lagged effect of the MXN rebound last year.
- We expect Banxico to cut rates next month, but poor weather conditions could delay action to March.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Rapid disinflation continues in Chile, which will allow BCCh to accelerate the pace of monetary easing.
- Fighting a subpar economic recovery is now BCCh’s priority, assuming the CLP remains under control.
- Improving external accounts are allowing bolder action, and pointing to a capex contraction in H1.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- LatAm economic activity is under pressure, helping to bring inflation back under control.
- Still-tight financial conditions are hurting key sectors, but the economic outlook will improve soon.
- Rate cuts will help to revive activity, but increased political and geopolitical uncertainty is a threat.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY FALTERING AND INFLATION FALLING...
- ...BUT CENTRAL BANKS REMAIN CAUTIOUS, FOR NOW
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
