- Brazil’s real GDP rebounded in Q1, thanks mainly to improving domestic demand, but risks loom for H2.
- Fiscal challenges, a weakening external backdrop and bad weather conditions have clouded the outlook.
- COPOM minutes reinforce the hawkish stance, despite a split vote, and cite fiscal risks to inflation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Inflation continues to fall rapidly.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Inflation continues to fall rapidly.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Banxico’s unanimous decision to keep rates on hold at 11% is due to persistent inflationary pressures.
- Upward revisions to headline and core inflation forecasts signal a more hawkish bias than expected.
- The Board is signaling the door is open for further interest rate cuts, as disinflation remains on track.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Core disinflation remains on track, but food prices are now a problem.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A modest cut as inflation risks have tilted to the upside.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A solid end to Q1, and the outlook is benign
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A poor end to Q1, but the underlying trend remains positive.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
LATAM CENTRAL BANKS ADOPT A MORE HAWKISH POSITION
- A CAUTIOUS FED AND STICKY SERVICES INFLATION ARE HURTING
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Inflation continues to fall rapidly, leaving the door open to further rate cuts.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s disinflation remains on track, paving the way for another bold interest rate cut next month…
- …But a cautious COPOM is signaling a slower pace of easing amid the BRL sell-off, due to external risk.
- Argentina’s Milei delivers the largest fiscal surplus in three decades; his ‘shock therapy’ is paying off.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Banxico likely to move to the sidelines next month.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Retail sales in Mexico performed poorly in Q1, due mainly to tighter financial conditions.
- The bad news won’t last; the sector will be supported by falling inflation and lower rates.
- The outlook, however, will likely be tempered by remittance trends and external risks.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A solid start to the year, but downside risks are emerging.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Resuming rate cuts but keeping a cautious bias.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Peru’s BCRP surprised markets once again, with a 25bp rate cut to 6%; more easing is on the cards.
- Congress approved a bill allowing pension-fund withdrawals; financial markets will suffer temporarily.
- Argentina’s BRCA cut rates to 70%, as inflation pressures are easing on a month-to-month basis.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Back to the target range, and the near-term outlook is benign.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Further interest rate cuts likely, as inflation pressures continue to ease.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s industrial output is weak in Q1, due to tight financing conditions and despite some bright spots.
- Rising business confidence signals manufacturing will gain momentum in Q2.
- The external accounts remain robust; the 12-month trade surplus is at historic highs…will this continue?
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
