Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Chartbook Daily Monitor
- Mexico’s external accounts are still healthy, but thanks to a solid H1 2024; risks emerged in Q4.
- Trade uncertainty likely will deter new investment, particularly in H1; remittances will face volatility.
- The labour market remains strong, at face value, but signs of weakening are becoming clearer.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Inflation in Brazil rose less than expected in February, despite a spike in electricity tariffs.
- Weakening domestic demand will keep inflation pressures in check, but a range of issues remain.
- Mexico’s external accounts are under control, but both external and domestic issues cloud the outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Core inflation is under control, allowing Banxico to eye a 50bp rate cut, but trade tensions loom.
- The benign February inflation report reinforces the dovish stance, yet US tariffs could cloud the outlook.
- In Argentina, Mr. Milei’s austerity is keeping the fiscal recovery on track, but trade tensions are rising.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexican retail sales stagnated in Q4, with high inflation and weak remittances dampening consumption.
- The labour market remains resilient, but weak job creation signals risks to economic momentum.
- Peru’s growth momentum slowed in December, but the outlook is positive, assuming no tariffs.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico — Trade, security and tariffs
- Colombia — Leadership on shaky ground
- Chile — Presidential race gathering momentum
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s economic slowdown is deepening and will force the COPOM to end its tightening cycle soon.
- Colombia’s economy gathered speed in Q4, thanks to lower interest rates and despite political noise.
- Leading indicators point to a healthy H1, though some sectors will continue to lag behind the upturn.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Private consumption in Brazil slowed rapidly in Q4, and weakening fundamentals point to a poor H1.
- Falling consumer confidence and worsening PMIs highlight the continued economic struggles.
- Chile’s BCCh faces inflation pressures, amid speculation on potential interest rate hikes soon.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — A solid start to the year as sentiment improves
- Mexico — A solid rebound, but threats remain
- Colombia — Economic tailwinds offset political noise
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s inflation dipped slightly in January, but the near-term outlook remains bleak…
- …But pressures will ease in H2 as weakening domestic and external demand weigh on inflation.
- A very, very ugly outlook for Mexico’s industrial sector under Trump 2.0; it could be avoided though.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s disinflation has paused, complicating BanRep’s efforts to support activity.
- Increased political noise, elevated fiscal strain and external uncertainty are challenges for policymakers.
- Chile’s electricity-tariff hike sparks an inflation surge, dimming hopes for further rate cuts.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s industrial output beat consensus in December, yet leading indicators point to a weakening trend.
- January’s COPOM minutes reveal a hawkish stance, despite economic activity softening.
- Peru’s inflation remains well on target, paving the way for a final rate cut in Q2, assuming a stable PEN.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazilian Real — Resilience in the face of adversity
- Mexican Peso — Complex economic and external waters
- Colombian Peso — Trade and fiscal issues in the spotlight
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The industrial and commerce sectors are driving Chile’s growth, despite persistent issues in services.
- Confidence indicators are on the mend, as activity navigates complex reforms and external pressures.
- The BCCh will have to take a cautious approach amid sluggish employment growth and high inflation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Presidents Sheinbaum and Trump agreed to pause tariffs, focusing on border-security cooperation.
- BanRep held interest rates at 9.5%, surprising the consensus, citing inflation and Petro-Trump tensions.
- Increasing inflation expectations and high labour costs are further threats, but BanRep will cut again.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
EXTERNAL RISKS ARE FORCING A CAUTIOUS APPROACH…
- …THE PETRO-TRUMP SAGA HIGHLIGHTS THE GROWING THREAT
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
