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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Daily Monitor

14 May 2025 LatAm Monitor US-China tariff truce brings limited, though welcome, relief for LatAm

  • LatAm will see muted benefit from the tariff rollback, as global demand and prices remain under pressure.
  • The temporary truce reduces uncertainty but does not reverse regional capex and confidence headwinds.
  • Chile’s disinflation is gaining traction, offering room for further monetary policy normalisation in H2.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

13 May 2025 LatAm Monitor Inflation stable on the surface in LatAm, but pressures linger beneath

  • Brazil’s headline inflation is stable, but services and food prices signal still-sticky underlying pressures.
  • The COPOM will hold rates steady as inflation risks linger, amid strong demand and volatile food costs.
  • Colombia’s inflation accelerated in April, challenging BanRep’s easing plans and credibility.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

9 May 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's COPOM sticks to the script but signals a long pause

  • The COPOM signalled a pause to rate hikes amid persistent inflation and emerging economic cooling.
  • Balanced inflation risks and global uncertainty drive the BCB’s flexible, data-dependent approach.
  • We see the end of the tightening cycle, with potential rate cuts delayed until late Q4 or early 2026.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

8 May 2025 LatAm Monitor Tariff pause brings relief to LatAm currencies

  • Brazilian Real —  Stability tested as external risks mount
  • Mexican Peso — Rallying on trade relief, but…
  • Chilean Peso — Buoyed by copper and strong real data

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

7 May 2025 LatAm Monitor Chile's BCCh holds rates amid global risks and domestic fragilities

  • BCCh held the policy rate at 5.0%, as external risks remain elevated and inflation is volatile.
  • Resilient growth masks deeper job-market weaknesses, limiting the scope for near-term easing.
  • Commodity-price declines highlight Chile’s vulnerability to shifting global trade dynamics.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

2 May 2025 LatAm Monitor. A narrow escape from recession, but the picture is far from rosy

  • Agriculture props up Mexico’s GDP, but industrial recession reveals underlying economic fragility.
  • US tariffs hit manufacturing hard, while weakening labour data signal sluggish services momentum.
  • Monetary easing likely to continue, but tight fiscal space limits scope for meaningful stimulus ahead.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

30 April 2025 LatAm Monitor IMF suspends Colombia's FCL access, exposing fiscal woes

  • Colombia’s suspension from the IMF’s Flexible Credit Line marks a turning point in its economic trajectory.
  • The move is technically temporary, but it reflects deep fiscal vulnerabilities.
  • BanRep is likely to hold rates as the FCL suspension raises policy constraints and market pressures.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

29 April 2025 LatAm Monitor A temporary reprieve in Mexico amid persistent uncertainty

  • February’s IGAE rebound brought short-term relief but failed to alter Mexico’s waning growth trajectory.
  • External trade tensions and domestic political uncertainty continue to weigh heavily on capex.
  • Government growth forecasts are disconnected from prevailing conditions, with recession risk high.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

25 April 2025 LatAm Monitor Mexico's recession likely to be brief but sufficient to curb inflation

  • Mexico’s surprise inflation rebound in early April reflects temporary shocks…
  • …Primarily the lagged effect of MXN depreciation, rather than a fundamental shift in the inflation trend.
  • Retail sales point to a broader slowdown in domestic demand, despite a better-than-expected Q1.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

24 April 2025 LatAm Monitor Trade, fiscal and policy dynamics shaping the near-term outlook

  • Brazil — Uncertainty and fiscal risks resurfacing
  • Mexico — Reforms and trade noise persist
  • Colombia —  Reform gamble deepens risks

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

23 April 2025 LatAm Monitor Colombia's recovery continues but the trade shock is a key threat

  • Colombia’s economic rebound continues, thanks to falling inflation and resilient services…
  • …But other sector performances remain uneven and fragile, and financial volatility poses a growing risk.
  • The US–China trade war is a threat to key exports and investment; domestic policy options are narrowing.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

16 April 2025 LatAm Monitor Mexico's industrial rebound masks structural weakness and policy risks

  • February’s surge in Mexican industrial output likely reflects temporary front-loading to beat tariff risk.
  • Long-term nearshoring prospects clash with short-term volatility and tightening financial conditions.
  • Global trade tensions and currency volatility drove BCRP’s decision to hold interest rates steady.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

15 April 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil battles inflation as activity surprises and fiscal risks linger

  • Inflation in Brazil exceeded expectations in March, due mainly to food, as weather and supply shocks persist.
  • Activity data point to solid momentum, but industrial output is dropping and leading indicators softening.
  • Fiscal risk and BRL weakness complicate COPOM’s task, despite signs of inflation pressures easing ahead.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

11 April 2025 LatAm Monitor Mexico's inflation eases in March; job growth remains worryingly weak

  • Mexico’s core inflation is contained, allowing Banxico to cut rates despite mounting global trade uncertainty.
  • Job creation improved slightly in March, but the Q1 performance signals deeper structural weakness.
  • Brazil’s retail resilience faces mounting pressure from labour-market cooling and tight credit.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

10 April 2025 LatAm Monitor Hit by global trade tensions and domestic uncertainties

  • Mexican Peso — Exposed to further tariff noise
  • Argentinian Peso — Stability or mirage
  • Colombian Peso — Under stress from oil and trade shocks

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

9 April 2025 LatAm Monitor Inflation receding in Colombia, but underlying pressures persist

  • Colombia’s disinflation resumed in March, and still-tight financial conditions will help it continue in Q2…
  • …But the COP’s sell-off amid trade tensions will limit disinflation’s progress and hurt import costs.
  • Chile’s inflation rebounded in March but will slow in Q2, although trade volatility raises new risks.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

8 April 2025 LatAm Monitor Central banks facing turmoil from trade and financial shocks

  • A muted tariff hit masks deeper vulnerabilities in trade exposure, export composition and market volatility.
  • Central banks will shift gear as the trade shock, falling capex and weak demand cloud the outlook.
  • Peru’s disinflation is on track, but the trade war is a threat to the relatively benign outlook.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

4 April 2025 LatAm Monitor LatAm emerges as a modest trade hedge amid US tariff shock

  • USMCA compliance shields Mexico, for now, as tariff risks shift to non-aligning sectors.
  • The US tariff war creates winners in LatAm, as Asia bears the brunt, but collateral damage is a threat.
  • Faltering sentiment and tight financial conditions are weighing on Brazil’s industrial sector.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

2 April 2025 LatAm Monitor

  • BanRep left rates on hold, due to persistent inflation pressures despite mixed progress…
  • …But new Board members boost the doves’ influence, hinting at potential rate cuts ahead, COP permitting.
  • Chile’s IMACEC highlights temporary setbacks in the recovery, but fundamentals point to sustained growth.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

1 April 2025 LatAm Monitor Mixed signals for Chile in February, but Q1 overall looks decent

  • Chile’s economic data for February show weakness, but growth momentum remains positive for Q1.
  • Geopolitical tensions and the US trade war threaten Chile’s trade-dependent economy and key sectors.
  • Argentina’s economy has started Q1 on a solid footing, but key challenges are emerging.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

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