Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- Data to be released in coming days will likely confirm that the Mexican economy struggled in Q4.
- If core disinflation continues as we expect, Banxico will start to cut rates next month.
- Argentina’s economy is under pressure, but some good news is emerging, particularly on fiscal issues.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- December’s IBC-Br confirmed that activity in Brazil ended Q4 strongly, but with some caveats.
- Still-elevated real rates are holding back the upturn in private consumption; COPOM will have to cut more.
- Peru had a poor end to the year, but low inflation and looser monetary conditions will support growth in H1.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s economy managed to muddle through in Q4, thanks to the revival in consumption and capex.
- Leading indicators point to a better H1, though the recovery will remain subpar by previous standards.
- Tight financial conditions and still-elevated political/ policy uncertainty will limit the rebound.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A poor end to the year, but the details are less grim than the headline.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Sluggish start to the year as headwinds bite
- Mexico — Inflation, Banxico and the Fed
- Colombia — Reduced political risk is a boost, for now
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Industrial production growth in Mexico slowed sharply towards the end of last year.
- Some leading indicators point to still-difficult times ahead; external conditions will remain a drag in H1.
- The miserable inflation story continues in Argentina but is finally showing signs of improvement, just.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Rapid disinflation in Colombia is paving the way for bigger rate cuts from a still-cautious BanRep.
- The effect of El Niño and the large minimum wage increase will be offset by sluggish domestic demand.
- Consumer confidence is on the mend, thanks to the COP’s resilience, lower inflation and interest rates.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Peru’s BCRP cut the policy rate by the usual 25bp to 6.25%, as inflation continues to fall rapidly.
- The Bank has ample room for manoeuvre, but bolder action is limited for now by the PEN sell-off.
- Sluggish economic growth and challenging external conditions are testing the country’s fiscal resilience.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- At last Banxico has opened the door to interest rate cuts, as early as next month.
- Headline inflation has surprised to the upside recently, but due to the volatile non-core component.
- Core disinflation is on track and economic activity is slowing rapidly; Banxico is already behind the curve.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Incompatible with prior data, but the downtrend is on track.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The El Niño effect is pushing prices of key foods higher, but core pressures remain under control.
- Brazil’s disinflation is on track, despite the headline number surprising to the upside in January.
- Food prices are also causing trouble in Chile, and methodology changes have led to elevated noise.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A terrible end to the year, but conditions will likely improve in Q1.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazilian Real — Fundamentals supportive
- Colombian Peso — Shielded by high carry
- Chilean Peso — Lower carry still the key drag
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s industrial sector is strengthening, but the devil is in the detail; bold rate cuts are needed.
- The external balance improved substantially last year as exports were resilient and imports struggled.
- The minutes of the last policy meeting point to a cruising speed of 50bp rate cuts in the near term.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s BCCh cut the policy rate by 100bp to 7.25%, with one member voting for a bigger reduction.
- The Board increased the pace of easing as inflation is falling rapidly and the economy is struggling.
- The worst for the economy is over, but temporary shocks—including bad weather—remain drags.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Industrial sector ends 2023 on a strong note.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America