Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- The COPOM signalled a pause to rate hikes amid persistent inflation and emerging economic cooling.
- Balanced inflation risks and global uncertainty drive the BCB’s flexible, data-dependent approach.
- We see the end of the tightening cycle, with potential rate cuts delayed until late Q4 or early 2026.
- In one line: A solid end to Q1, but downside risks prevail.
- Brazilian Real — Stability tested as external risks mount
- Mexican Peso — Rallying on trade relief, but…
- Chilean Peso — Buoyed by copper and strong real data
- BCCh held the policy rate at 5.0%, as external risks remain elevated and inflation is volatile.
- Resilient growth masks deeper job-market weaknesses, limiting the scope for near-term easing.
- Commodity-price declines highlight Chile’s vulnerability to shifting global trade dynamics.
- In one line: Q1 ends on a strong note, but growth set to slow.
- Colombia’s central bank resumes its cautious easing cycle amid fragile growth and persistent inflation risks.
- BanRep balances disinflation momentum with fiscal slippage and intensifying external noise.
- Uncoordinated policy signals undermine credibility as Colombia faces deteriorating fundamentals.
- In one line: Surprise rate cut signals cautious support for the recovery.
LATAM SHIELDS ITSELF AMID TARIFF TURMOIL…
- …BUT VULNERABILITIES AND RISKS REMAIN ELEVATED
- Agriculture props up Mexico’s GDP, but industrial recession reveals underlying economic fragility.
- US tariffs hit manufacturing hard, while weakening labour data signal sluggish services momentum.
- Monetary easing likely to continue, but tight fiscal space limits scope for meaningful stimulus ahead.
- In one line: Agricultural rebound masks broad-based weakness.
- In one line: Consumption resilient amid headwinds, but confidence wavers as external risks build.
- In one line: The BCCh holds fire, as global risks intensify.
