Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- Brazil’s COPOM delivered another widely expected 50bp cut to the Selic rate and kept a dovish tone.
- The Board, however, signalled that this pace of easing would continue in Q1, as upside risks remain.
- We expect bolder action ahead, though, as economic activity struggles and external conditions stabilise.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico — Rebounding, and the outlook is benign
- Argentina — All eyes on Milei’s first steps
- Chile — A gradual recovery, but hurdles remain
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s November inflation numbers support the case for bolder rate cuts during Q1, fiscal issues permitting.
- Headline inflation is declining faster than expected in Colombia, but the core remains sticky, for now.
- The headline inflation fall is good enough to trigger action by BanRep next week.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Inflation overshot expectations in Chile; food prices and tourist packages did the most damage.
- Underlying pressures remain under control, and the sluggish economic recovery will put a lid on inflation.
- BCCh will cut by 75bp next week, as price pressures are subdued, despite the ugly inflation headlines.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A sharp m/m increase, but the rapid downtrend will resume soon.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s disinflation is continuing, despite recent upside surprises due to temporary seasonal factors.
- Core inflation is still falling, opening the door to rate cuts as the economy struggles.
- The outlook is benign thanks to the MXN, but key threats remain, particularly on the policy front.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazilian Real — Fundamentals supportive
- Mexican Peso — All good here, at least in the near term
- Argentinian Peso — Milei’s moment is here
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Surprisingly resilient, but high interest rates are now a drag.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s economy dodged a contraction in Q3, despite the drag from rising real interest rates.
- Solid private consumption, for now, and resilient exports are overshadowing the capex recession.
- The outlook is deteriorating, as rates continue to stifle economic activity, but 2024 will be better.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A poor start to Q4, due chiefly to plunging mining activity.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s sub-par economic recovery continued in October, with the non-mining sector a key driver.
- The near-term outlook is benign, but indicators point to difficult times for capex further out.
- Peru’s disinflation gathered speed in November, opening the door to bolder rate cuts this month.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
MONETARY EASING CONTINUES, AS INFLATION FALLS...
- ...THIS WILL PREVENT A PROTRACTED ECONOMIC DOWNTREND
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s unemployment fell in October to recent cyclical lows, but the good news won’t continue.
- Mexico’s job market remains resilient, buoying Banxico’s hawks, but the current strength can’t last.
- In Chile and Colombia, the job market also looks solid, but this is a lagging indicator; it will slow soon.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s disinflation is fully on track as economic activity loses momentum.
- This, coupled with benign external conditions, will allow BCB to accelerate the pace of policy easing.
- Peru’s economy has been able to dodge a technical recession this year, but high real rates are a threat.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Argentina’s Milei seems to be grasping orthodoxy, for now, by appointing a centrist as minister of economy.
- The Argentinian economy is resilient, but the survey data tell a clear story of deteriorating growth in H1.
- Households have been able to muddle through this year, but inflation is fast approaching 200%.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A stronger-than-expected Q3, but downside forces are emerging.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s economy did well in Q3 due chiefly to stronger services, but the good news won’t last.
- Growth momentum is easing; higher borrowing costs are triggering a slowdown in consumption.
- Interest rate cuts are coming, as the minutes of the last meeting suggest, but in Q4?
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
