Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- Argentina’s inflation fell sharply over 2025, though momentum is fading as utility tariffs normalise…
- …Fiscal discipline and a redesigned FX regime will determine whether inflation falls close to 20% in 2026.
- Primary weakness weighed on November activity in Peru, but underlying growth momentum is strong.
- In one line: Activity rebounds in November, but momentum remains weak.
- Household spending gains traction in Mexico, while capex remains weak on policy and trade uncertainty.
- The USMCA review adds volatility, delaying the capex recovery and reinforcing consumption-led growth.
- November’s activity rebound stabilises growth in Brazil, but tight financial conditions still constrain its recovery.
- In one line: Retail stabilizing after prolonged weakness.
- Brazil’s H2 slowdown reflects tight financial conditions; agriculture and retail prevent a worse picture.
- Retail and services are showing a tentative stabilisation, while industry is struggling under restrictive credit.
- Disinflation and softer activity set the stage for cautious COPOM easing starting in March.
- Brazil — Retesting records as rate-cut bets return
- Mexico — Hitting records on positive sectoral news
- Colombia — Firm flows, and election in focus
- Sticky services inflation and high indexation leave Colombia far from target, despite modest relief in Q4.
- A 23% minimum-wage increase threatens to entrench inflation persistence and delay long-term convergence.
- BanRep faces pressure to tighten aggressively as expectations rise and LatAm peers’ prices stabilise.
- Chile’s CPI surprised to the downside in December, as goods deflation deepened and core pressures eased…
- …A firmer CLP and slowing wages are anchoring inflation, leaving policy rates close to neutral.
- Low inflation, neutral rates and FX management mean BCRP is well positioned as election risks build.
- In one line: Inflation rises marginally, but disinflation remains on track.
- In one line: Under pressure, despite modest manufacturing gains.
- In one line: President Boluarte removed; uncertainty persists but economy remains resilient.
- In one line: Showing tentative signs of stabilisation, but tight financial conditions remain a drag.
- Disinflation is broadening in Brazil, as tradables cool and currency strength reinforces policy credibility…
- …The COPOM will begin a cautious easing cycle; fiscal risks and labour tightness will slow the pace of cuts.
- Industrial output is improving sequentially in Mexico, but weak exports and the USMCA review are threats.
- Sticky core inflation and narrowing policy leeway push Banxico to pause before cautious easing can resume…
- …Temporary fiscal and wage shocks will lift near-term inflation, but disinflation will maintain its easing bias.
- Disinflation is holding in Chile as policy nears neutral and the easing cycle approaches its end.
- Brazilian Real — Flows and shifting rate bets
- Mexican Peso — Range-bound after strong December
- Colombian Peso — Wage shock and geopolitics weigh
- October’s activity rebound reduces recession risk in Mexico, but sectoral momentum remains uneven.
- Services are cushioning any weakness, with industry, investment and external demand capping growth
- USMCA uncertainty, soft remittances and policy noise will keep Mexico’s growth below potential this year.
- US intervention in Venezuela raises regional tensions and reshapes political debate ahead of key elections.
- Rising crime and security issues push voters towards hard-line, market-friendly candidates.
- Chile’s election and upcoming Andean races signal a broader shift in LatAm’s political cycle.
- Banxico delivered another rate cut, but firmer inflation and guidance point to pauses ahead.
- Sticky services inflation and fiscal changes narrow the Bank’s space to ease heading into early 2026.
- The weakness of growth supports cuts, yet external risks and credibility worries limit the options.
- Faster disinflation and anchored expectations allow a cautious rate cut in Chile, after two straight holds…
- …Improving global conditions, firmer copper prices and resilient activity support Chile’s macro outlook.
- Growth is resilient in Argentina, as exports strengthen and fiscal discipline anchors stability.
- Brazil — Polarised political outlook
- Colombia — Markets brace for next year's election
- Peru — Stability but with political fragility
