Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- Brazil — President Lula gains ground amid tensions
- Mexico — Trade, security and stability
- Chile — Conservatives hold ground prior to crucial vote
- Core inflation remains elevated in Colombia, highlighting persistent demand across key sectors.
- BanRep is likely to hold rates as minimum-wage risks and inflation expectations challenge policy flexibility.
- Temporary price pressures lifted September inflation in Chile, but disinflation is likely to resume in Q4.
- Peru’s Congress has impeached President Boluarte,
amid surging crime and collapsing support.
- Interim President Jerí assumes office with a limited
mandate; restoring confidence will be a challenge.
- Peru’s economy is holding firm despite the saga,
supported by strong institutions and fundamentals.
- In one line: Disinflation holds, but core pressures persist.
- Brazil’s disinflation is continuing amid an electricity tariff shock and strong currency support.
- Mexico’s inflation is steady in late Q3, pressured by services despite softening in goods inflation.
- Central banks will tread cautiously, balancing rate cuts with sticky core inflation and economic growth.
- Brazil — Rally on easing inflation
- Mexico — From record peaks to profit-taking
- Chile — Market consolidates after regional volatility
- The mild inflation uptick in Peru was driven by base effects, underlying price pressures remain in check.
- Economic momentum is holding steady, with construction, credit and labour markets resilient.
- Fiscal discipline and solid external accounts support PEN stability amid mounting political uncertainty.
- The broad-based rise in Brazil’s industrial output in August offers short-term relief, as the risks persist.
- Investment and external demand remain major drags; high interest rates are hurting.
- Weak confidence and US trade frictions will likely continue to weigh on industry.
- In one line: Signs of modest recovery in August, but the outlook remains fragile.
- A mining accident disrupted output in Chile, hurting activity, while commerce provided stability.
- Fiscal revenues rose on higher royalties and copper prices, though election-year spending risks persist.
- A right-wing political shift would bring business friendly reforms, likely boosting investor confidence.
- In one line: Activity loses momentum in August due mainly to weak mining.
- Split in BanRep’s Board highlights tension between resilient domestic demand and stubborn inflation.
- Loss of IMF credit line underscores fiscal fragility, fuelling market concerns over Colombia’s credibility.
- Minimum wage talks risk entrenching inflation, limiting BanRep’s scope for near-term easing.
LATAM ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS POLICY STAYS RESTRICTIVE…
- …DISINFLATION ADVANCES, BUT CORE PRESSURES CLOUD OUTLOOK
- In one line: Retail and manufacturing support growth, labour market improving at the margin.
- Brazilian Real — Gains fade after early rally
- Mexican Peso — Resilient, but facing resistance
- Argentinian Peso — Volatility as political noise builds
- Economic activity in Argentina contracts again as fiscal constraints and political instability weigh…
- …The US backstop boosts stability, but the October mid-term elections will test the credibility of reforms.
- A resilient labour market in Brazil masks cooling momentum, with job creation fading.
- Import growth is far outpacing exports in Brazil, as the strong BRL and Chinese goods shift trade flows.
- High reserves and slowing demand are buffers, but financing gaps leave Brazil vulnerable to shocks.
- Mexico’s labour market is weakening, with formal job creation stalling, wages rising and capex subdued.
- Monetary policy in Mexico is shifting cautiously, as inflation is sticky and growth prospects weaker.
- The trade deficit widened in August due to the oil sector and tariff-related external uncertainty.
- MXN appreciation and USMCA compliance support stability, despite ongoing external and fiscal risks.
- In one line: Inflation benign despite September uptick.
- In one line: Inflation steady, Banxico set to ease.
