Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Weekly Monitor Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- BanRep raised rates last week, as inflation remains persistent and expectations are still de-anchored.
- Institutional tensions between the government and central bank risk undermining BanRep’s credibility.
- Fiscal fragility and external shocks also reinforce the need for a prolonged restrictive stance going forward.
- Banxico’s policy surprise reflects weaker activity, with the inflation spike considered temporary.
- External shocks from oil and tighter financial conditions raise upside risks and constrain easing.
- Disinflation is becoming more uneven; Banxico must balance supporting growth against inflation risk.
- Consumption in Colombia remains strong, but weak capex undermines medium-term growth prospects.
- Tight financial conditions and fiscal consolidation will weigh on demand, exposing fragile growth dynamics.
- Higher oil prices offer support, but inflation pressures and policy tightening limit upside for activity.
- Mexico’s industrial output fell sharply in January as key sub-sectors weakened simultaneously.
- Soft external demand, tight financial conditions and policy uncertainty continue to weigh on activity.
- Infrastructure spending and US supply-chain integration will likely support a gradual recovery in H2.
- Brazil’s jobless rate remains at historic lows, indicating labour demand is still far above sustainable levels.
- Real wage growth above 5% keeps services inflation sticky and limits room for rapid easing.
- Rising oil prices from Middle East tensions add upside inflation risk, impeding the COPOM’s policy path.
- Brazil’s IPCA-15 upside surprise reflects education and transport seasonality, not renewed pressures.
- Core trends have stabilised near target, reinforcing scope for gradual COPOM easing from this month.
- Fiscal uncertainty clouds the rate-cutting pace despite soft activity, steady prices and BRL rebound.
- An agriculture-led rebound lifted Argentina’s Q4 growth, yet job gains remain limited and uneven.
- Inflation is picking up at the margin, testing the durability of the success seen in recent quarters.
- Fiscal surpluses anchor credibility, but market access hinges on sustained discipline and reform.
- Food volatility lifted headline inflation in Mexico, but underlying dynamics remain the policy constraint.
- Core inflation is moderating slightly, yet stickiness in services is keeping Banxico cautious about easing.
- Gradual disinflation supports rate cuts in Q2, though risks remain tilted modestly upwards.
- Mexico’s Q4 GDP growth beat expectations, driven by strength in services, and easing inflation.
- Retail sales and leading indicators improved, but job-market cooling tempers domestic-demand outlook.
- Banxico is pausing easing, as trade risk, fiscal tightening and sticky core inflation constrain the outlook.
- Consumption and fiscal expansion are driving activity in Colombia, while capex remains subdued.
- Imports surged ahead of weak exports, widening external deficits and exposing structural issues.
- Election uncertainty and wage shocks hinder monetary policy, prolonging tight financial conditions.
- Base effects lifted Brazil’s inflation in January, but underlying price pressures were contained…
- …The COPOM is set to begin its easing cycle in March as inflation expectations remain anchored.
- The BCRP held rates at 4.25% as inflation converges to target, but we still see room for further easing.
- Sticky core inflation and fiscal pressures prompt the first policy pause by Banxico since March 2024.
- Rate cuts will resume once inflation moderates, with credibility guiding policy calibration.
- Chile’s inflation remains well contained, despite seasonal increases across several components.
- Mexico's Q4 rebound reflects gains in both industry and services, offsetting the hit to agriculture.
- Domestic demand is improving slowly, but weak capex, fiscal constraints and trade uncertainty remain drags.
- Banxico will pause easing as inflation remains sticky, and temporary upside shocks warrant attention.
- Activity in Argentina slipped in November, exposing weak momentum after the mid-term elections…
- …Manufacturing and commerce output fell sharply, while growth is focused on low-employment sectors.
- BCCh will pause amid easing inflation, BCB will hold despite stickiness, and BanRep will tighten as risks rise.
- Household spending gains traction in Mexico, while capex remains weak on policy and trade uncertainty.
- The USMCA review adds volatility, delaying the capex recovery and reinforcing consumption-led growth.
- November’s activity rebound stabilises growth in Brazil, but tight financial conditions still constrain its recovery.
- Disinflation is broadening in Brazil, as tradables cool and currency strength reinforces policy credibility…
- …The COPOM will begin a cautious easing cycle; fiscal risks and labour tightness will slow the pace of cuts.
- Industrial output is improving sequentially in Mexico, but weak exports and the USMCA review are threats.
- US intervention in Venezuela raises regional tensions and reshapes political debate ahead of key elections.
- Rising crime and security issues push voters towards hard-line, market-friendly candidates.
- Chile’s election and upcoming Andean races signal a broader shift in LatAm’s political cycle.
- Banxico delivered another rate cut, but firmer inflation and guidance point to pauses ahead.
- Sticky services inflation and fiscal changes narrow the Bank’s space to ease heading into early 2026.
- The weakness of growth supports cuts, yet external risks and credibility worries limit the options.
- Mexico’s industrial rebound in October reflects only base effects and construction timing.
- Manufacturing remains under strain, as US demand softens and trade policy uncertainty freezes capex.
- USMCA-renewal and tariff risks will dominate industry’s performance more than domestic demand.
- Contained inflation with a broad-based moderation allows BCCh to resume gradual easing soon…
- …CLP strength, lower food and oil prices, and relatively soft demand support a benign disinflation outlook.
- Mexico’s ambitious wage push will strain productivity, intensify inflation risks, and test Banxico.
