Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Chartbook Datanotes Weekly Monitor Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- Fuel and food drove inflation in Brazil, but broader price pressures are now beginning to emerge.
- Disinflation persists in parts of the basket, but momentum is slowing and becoming uneven.
- The COPOM will continue easing cautiously, as higher inflation and risks limit scope for aggressive cuts.
- BanRep raised rates last week, as inflation remains persistent and expectations are still de-anchored.
- Institutional tensions between the government and central bank risk undermining BanRep’s credibility.
- Fiscal fragility and external shocks also reinforce the need for a prolonged restrictive stance going forward.
- In one line: BanRep hikes again, doubling down on credibility.
IRAN-WAR SHOCK COMPLICATES LATAM EASING CYCLE
- OIL-DRIVEN INFLATION DELAYS POLICY NORMALISATION
- Banxico’s policy surprise reflects weaker activity, with the inflation spike considered temporary.
- External shocks from oil and tighter financial conditions raise upside risks and constrain easing.
- Disinflation is becoming more uneven; Banxico must balance supporting growth against inflation risk.
- In one line: Disinflation remains intact, but the oil shock has materially increased upside risk.
- In one line: Rates on hold, policy turns cautious after Middle East oil shock.
- In one line: Inflation surprised to the upside, while activity weakened sharply at the start of the year.
- Consumption in Colombia remains strong, but weak capex undermines medium-term growth prospects.
- Tight financial conditions and fiscal consolidation will weigh on demand, exposing fragile growth dynamics.
- Higher oil prices offer support, but inflation pressures and policy tightening limit upside for activity.
- Mexico’s industrial output fell sharply in January as key sub-sectors weakened simultaneously.
- Soft external demand, tight financial conditions and policy uncertainty continue to weigh on activity.
- Infrastructure spending and US supply-chain integration will likely support a gradual recovery in H2.
- In one line: Core pressures pushed inflation up slightly and the outlook is worsening.
- In one line: Inflation surprised to the downside, reinforcing Chile’s disinflation trend.
- In one line: Output rebounded in January, but the broader industrial trend remains fragile.
- Brazil’s jobless rate remains at historic lows, indicating labour demand is still far above sustainable levels.
- Real wage growth above 5% keeps services inflation sticky and limits room for rapid easing.
- Rising oil prices from Middle East tensions add upside inflation risk, impeding the COPOM’s policy path.
- In one line: Q4 confirms stagnation as tight policy weighs on capex.
- In one line: Services rebounded, partly offsetting renewed weakness in manufacturing.
LATAM ACTIVITY STABILISES AS POLICY PATHS DIVERGE
- DISINFLATION PROVES UNEVEN, WHILE POLITICAL RISK INTENSIFIES
- In one line: Activity softened at the start of the year.
- In one line: Seasonal firmness, but disinflation remains intact.
- Brazil’s IPCA-15 upside surprise reflects education and transport seasonality, not renewed pressures.
- Core trends have stabilised near target, reinforcing scope for gradual COPOM easing from this month.
- Fiscal uncertainty clouds the rate-cutting pace despite soft activity, steady prices and BRL rebound.
