Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Weekly Monitor Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- Activity in Brazil ended 2025 softly, with services weakening and industry hurt by tight conditions…
- …Imminent rate cuts and fiscal support will likely steady growth, though risks remain elevated.
- A chronic lack of stability and voter disaffection cloud elections in Peru, but fundamentals are the key.
- Base effects lifted Brazil’s inflation in January, but underlying price pressures were contained…
- …The COPOM is set to begin its easing cycle in March as inflation expectations remain anchored.
- The BCRP held rates at 4.25% as inflation converges to target, but we still see room for further easing.
- Mexican inflation stays contained but firmer core inflation justifies Banxico’s cautious pause.
- Non-core disinflation offsets tax-driven core stickiness leaving policy easing gradual in Q2.
- Colombia’s January CPI surge reflects the minimum-wage hike and the stalling convergence to target.
- Sticky core inflation and fiscal pressures prompt the first policy pause by Banxico since March 2024.
- Rate cuts will resume once inflation moderates, with credibility guiding policy calibration.
- Chile’s inflation remains well contained, despite seasonal increases across several components.
- Chile’s IMACEC rebounded, led by commerce, services and resilient domestic demand momentum.
- Falling inflation, pension-reform liquidity and easier credit conditions set a positive tone for H1.
- Banxico pauses easing as sticky core inflation and fiscal pressures delay convergence to target.
- Brazilian Real — Carry, and USD weakness
- Chilean Peso — Copper rally and policy credibility
- Mexican Peso — Strong start to the year, but…
- Brazil’s Q4 industrial weakness confirms a recession in the sector due to tight financial conditions.
- Sentiment has stabilised, but demand remains soft as high rates constrain manufacturing activity.
- A March rate cut will likely support a gradual recovery, but downside risks remain elevated.
- A 100bp rate hike signals alarm over inflation expectations after Colombia’s huge minimum-wage increase.
- Board divisions, fiscal slippage and fuel subsidies complicate BanRep’s efforts to restore policy credibility.
- Strong demand and tight job markets force the Bank to prioritise controlling inflation over near-term growth.
- Mexico's Q4 rebound reflects gains in both industry and services, offsetting the hit to agriculture.
- Domestic demand is improving slowly, but weak capex, fiscal constraints and trade uncertainty remain drags.
- Banxico will pause easing as inflation remains sticky, and temporary upside shocks warrant attention.
- Ongoing disinflation, cooling activity and BRL strength allow Brazil's COPOM to prepare for cautious easing…
- …The guidance has shifted to a calibration of easing, making a March rate cut the clear baseline.
- The BCCh held rates, signalling patience as disinflation outpaces expectations; further easing remains likely.
- The IPCA-15 confirms Brazil's inflation is contained, pressures localised, and disinflation trends firmly intact.
- Soft demand, a strong BRL and anchored inflation expectations support a March start to rate cuts.
- The external accounts remain relatively solid, allowing gradual Selic cuts without destabilising capital flows.
- Public spending and strong consumption drive activity in Colombia, while industry remains uneven.
- A widening trade deficit, record remittances and rising import intensity are reshaping the external picture.
- The minimum-wage shock is lifting inflation expectations, forcing BanRep to tighten further.
- Activity in Argentina slipped in November, exposing weak momentum after the mid-term elections…
- …Manufacturing and commerce output fell sharply, while growth is focused on low-employment sectors.
- BCCh will pause amid easing inflation, BCB will hold despite stickiness, and BanRep will tighten as risks rise.
- Inflation is still contained in Mexico, but excise taxes and services are slowing the final stage of disinflation.
- Sticky core inflation and firmer consumption argue for Banxico to pause after an extended easing cycle.
- Trade uncertainty, tariffs and USMCA risk reinforce the need for cautious policy in H1.
- Brazil — Legal battles and electoral risk
- Colombia — Risk premium rises ahead of elections
- Peru — Politics unsettled, markets remain resilient
- Argentina’s inflation fell sharply over 2025, though momentum is fading as utility tariffs normalise…
- …Fiscal discipline and a redesigned FX regime will determine whether inflation falls close to 20% in 2026.
- Primary weakness weighed on November activity in Peru, but underlying growth momentum is strong.
- Household spending gains traction in Mexico, while capex remains weak on policy and trade uncertainty.
- The USMCA review adds volatility, delaying the capex recovery and reinforcing consumption-led growth.
- November’s activity rebound stabilises growth in Brazil, but tight financial conditions still constrain its recovery.
- Brazil’s H2 slowdown reflects tight financial conditions; agriculture and retail prevent a worse picture.
- Retail and services are showing a tentative stabilisation, while industry is struggling under restrictive credit.
- Disinflation and softer activity set the stage for cautious COPOM easing starting in March.
- Brazil — Retesting records as rate-cut bets return
- Mexico — Hitting records on positive sectoral news
- Colombia — Firm flows, and election in focus
- Sticky services inflation and high indexation leave Colombia far from target, despite modest relief in Q4.
- A 23% minimum-wage increase threatens to entrench inflation persistence and delay long-term convergence.
- BanRep faces pressure to tighten aggressively as expectations rise and LatAm peers’ prices stabilise.
