Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Weekly Monitor Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- Brazil’s IBC-BR fell again in July, confirming a poor start to Q3 amid broad sectoral weakness.
- Retail and services are slowing as high borrowing costs erode resilience, despite job market support.
- Copom set to hold Selic rate at 15%, signalling prolonged tight policy amid sticky inflation.
- Markets reeled as political setback exposed fragility in Argentina’s macro backdrop and reform credibility.
- Inflation is slowing, but ARS pressure, weak activity, and tight reserves complicate policy execution.
- October elections will test Milei’s mandate and determine the durability of his economic program.
- Disinflation gains traction in Brazil, but sticky core inflation will keep COPOM on high alert.
- Energy and food drive relief to the headline number, but services and labour costs still pose inflation risks.
- BCCh holds rates at 4.75% as core inflation stays firm and labour market strains delay easing path.
- Brazil — Rally on easing inflation, election optimism
- Mexico — Upwards amid cautious optimism
- Colombia — Nears 13-year high on broad gains
- Headline inflation eases in Mexico, but sticky core services limit Banxico’s scope to ease.
- The Economic Package prioritises targeted capex, fiscal consolidation and sustained social spending.
- MXN strength and prudent debt management support stability; trade uncertainty restrains growth.
- Chile’s downside inflation surprise strengthens the case for a cautious 25bp policy rate cut today.
- Colombia’s inflation persists, as food and service components push the headline rate above 5%.
- BanRep remains cautious, with structural inflation drivers and fiscal reform clouding the policy outlook.
- Mexico’s economy is showing modest resilience, supported by manufacturing and services.
- Consumption is underpinned by wages and remittances, but capex is weakening amid trade tensions.
- Brazil’s trade surplus is holding up, but industry is deteriorating due to US tariffs and tight policy.
- Growth is steady in Chile, led by resilient services, a mining rebound and capex; net trade is a drag.
- Inflation is easing gradually, but sticky services prices and wage pass-through delay convergence to target.
- The fiscal deficit has widened, and labour market slack and political uncertainty cloud the outlook.
- Brazilian Real — Resilient, but volatility is persisting
- Mexican Peso — Stable, but capped by external noise
- Colombian Peso — Early rebound before consolidation
- Brazil’s Q2 GDP growth slowed sharply, as temporary supports fade and monetary tightening bites.
- Household consumption and services showed resilience, but capex saw renewed weakness.
- Peru’s inflation is firmly anchored, giving BCRP flexibility to balance demand and external uncertainty.
- Inflation in Brazil eased to 5.0% in August, helped by falling food prices and stronger BRL support.
- GDP growth slowed sharply in Q2, as earlier momentum in agriculture, industry and services faded.
- US tariffs and widening external deficits remain risks, keeping the COPOM cautious and Selic rate at 15%.
- Retail sales declined sharply in Brazil, with credit-sensitive segments under the most pressure.
- Services held firm up until June, but PMI data now point to a weakening trend.
- Consumer sentiment is fragile, and high interest rates continue to weigh on household spending.
- Mexico — Rally slows near resistance
- Argentina — Fragile rebound ahead of elections
- Chile — At record high, set for steady year-end gains
- Brazil's July IPCA undershot expectations, with the inflation rate easing to 5.2% from 5.4% in June…
- …Falling food and industrial goods prices, plus a stronger BRL, point to continued gradual disinflation.
- We expect the BCRP to hold at 4.50% this week, though a 25bp cut later this year remains possible.
- Chile's July CPI jumped, on electricity and services, pushing up inflation for the first time since March.
- BCCh launched an USD18.5B reserve accumulation plan to cut its reliance on a shrinking IMF credit line.
- Colombia’s inflation rose, as structural pressures persist, delaying the prospect of further rate cuts.
- Banxico opted for a smaller rate cut, balancing better headline inflation against sticky core pressures.
- Its updated forecasts show headline inflation easing but core elevated, delaying convergence to target.
- The more gradual 25bp pace is likely to continue, with data-dependency guiding further cuts in 2025.
- Brazilian Real — Under strain as trade risk rises
- Mexican Peso — Holding firm amid headwinds
- Colombian Peso — Rally ended by an array of risks
- Chile's non-mining sectors remain robust, helped by strong consumption and improving investment.
- The slump in mining output is weighing on headline growth, but external demand and copper are buffers.
- Fiscal pressures are rising as revenues lag behind target, raising the risk of budget-tightening ahead.
- Sticky core inflation and rising wage risk delay further cuts in Colombia, despite headline disinflation.
- Governor Villar flagged the worsening public finances; FM Bonilla offered little clarity on budget plans.
- We expect a shallow easing cycle, with cuts resuming only if inflation risks ease meaningfully.
- Mexico’s industrial and service sectors rebounded in Q2, offsetting weak agriculture.
- The US tariff extension brings near-term relief, supporting manufacturing, exports and capex.
- Domestic policy volatility, weak sentiment and a real wage slowdown still weigh on broader momentum.
