Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Weekly Monitor
- Brazil — Lula’s political skills put to the test
- Mexico — Sheinbaum’s judicial reform rattles markets
- Argentina — Milei’s uphill battle, despite approval
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s economic activity stalled in April, and down-side risks are intensifying, due mainly to the floods.
- The COPOM is likely to pause its easing this week, amid inflation concerns and despite faltering growth.
- Peru’s economy is rebounding in Q2, boosted by primary sectors, and the outlook remains positive.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BCRP left rates unchanged, defying expectations once again, as core inflation remains sticky in Peru.
- Muted inflation and soft economic activity will allow further policy normalisation in H2.
- Another boost for President Milei as inflation in Argentina slowed in May, undershooting expectations.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- A whirlwind start for President Milei in Argentina; reforms, protests, economic turmoil…and disinflation.
- The Senate has narrowly approved a controversial bill giving him a badly needed first legislative victory.
- Brazil’s retail sales rise in April but undershoot expectations; the medium-term outlook is worsening.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Extending losses amid uncertainty
- Mexico — Increased political risk rattling markets
- Colombia — Struggling amid fiscal uncertainty
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil faces an uphill inflation battle amid multiple headwinds, despite relatively subdued core pressures.
- The floods, BRL sell-off and fiscal woes have intensified the COPOM’s inflation challenges.
- Mexico’s industry is struggling due to a manufacturing slump, while construction remains resilient.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s trade surplus is holding steady, despite exports slowing amid challenging conditions…
- …Imports are showing signs of recovery, but tight financial conditions are limiting growth.
- Colombia’s current account deficit has shrunk, despite weak domestic demand and ongoing challenges.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico eyes further monetary easing amid subdued core inflation, but politics are now a huge threat.
- Chile’s inflation likely will resume its downtrend despite the recent uptick, thanks to the CLP rebound.
- Rising electricity tariffs, however, pose an upside risk to the inflation outlook; the BCCh is on the alert.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The MXN has steadied after the election shock, but populist reform fears linger.
- A mixed start for Brazilian industry in Q2, but the floods in the south have dented the outlook.
- The rebound will resume in H2 but faces headwinds from still-tight financial conditions and weak demand.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazilian Real — Tumbling amid policy uncertainty
- Mexican Peso — Hurt by MORENA’s landslide victory
- Argentinian Peso — Plunges amid policy uncertainty
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s economic rebound faces a number of headwinds despite solid Q1 growth.
- High interest rates and severe floods will dampen Brazil’s growth prospects over the coming quarters.
- Inflation in Peru cooled in May, paving the way for further rate cuts amid policy uncertainty.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Claudia Sheinbaum makes history after being elected as Mexico’s first female president.
- Ms. Sheinbaum’s victory was expected, but a potential MORENA supermajority brings uncertainty.
- The Chilean economic activity index rebounded in April, but disappointing details point to rate cuts.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The Brazilian labour market’s resilience will continue to raise inflation concerns for policymakers.
- Robust economic activity in recent months likely will slow the disinflation process, but not for long.
- Downside risks persist for the economy in H2; tighter financial conditions will be the main drag, by far.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico is bracing for historic elections, as Claudia Sheinbaum—AMLO’s protégée—eyes the presidency.
- Financial markets anticipate a Sheinbaum victory, but uncertainties linger and a surprise could happen.
- Legislative outcomes will shape Mexico’s economic outlook amid concerns over AMLO’s interventionism.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s May inflation data support a 25bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on June 19, but risks linger…
- …The floods in the south of the country have had a limited impact so far, but the hit will be felt soon.
- Inflation expectations are on the rise; a further deterioration would limit the central bank’s options.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s BCCh slowed its rate cutting pace to 50bp, citing lagged inflation pressures.
- It kept a relatively dovish tone, however, pointing to further easing in coming meetings, as FX fears ease.
- Board reaffirms data-dependent approach, highlights “clexibility” for future decisions.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s Q1 GDP upward revision masks the underlying economic slowdown; rate cuts are badly needed.
- Pre-election spending will fuel short-term growth, despite rising public debt and economic challenges.
- Core inflation is easing in May, allowing a still-hawkish Banxico to consider rate cuts next month.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mixed signals in Colombia’s Q1 GDP, as strong consumption clashes with weak investment.
- Policy uncertainty under President Petro is stifling the investment recovery; the outlook remains bleak.
- The more than 30% collapse in capex since Petro took office highlights the hit, amid high interest rates.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s economy gained traction in Q1, thanks mainly to improving domestic demand.
- Falling inflation and lower interest rates are gradually supporting the upturn, but downside risks remain.
- The recovery will likely lose speed but won’t collapse; further monetary policy normalisation will help.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s real GDP rebounded in Q1, thanks mainly to improving domestic demand, but risks loom for H2.
- Fiscal challenges, a weakening external backdrop and bad weather conditions have clouded the outlook.
- COPOM minutes reinforce the hawkish stance, despite a split vote, and cite fiscal risks to inflation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America