Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Asia Key Issues

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21 Jan 2021 The PBoC Shows its Hand Through its Open Market Operations

In the past couple of years, markets have begun to track PBoC moves much more tightly, as our first chart shows.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)20th Jan 2021 18:00China+

12 Jan 2021 Services Inflation is About to Stage a Recovery, Repairing Margins

Services Inflation is About to Stage a Recovery, Repairing Margins

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)11th Jan 2021 18:10China+

4 Jan 2021 China PMI Gives Early Warning on Producer and Services Prices

China's official manufacturing PMI was little changed, at 51.9 in December, compared with 52.1 in November.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)24th Dec 2020 06:32China+

18 Dec 2020 An All-Encompassing Period of Disinflation is Afoot in India

CPI inflation in India slowed faster than expected in November, dropping to 6.9%, from the nine-month high of 7.6% in October.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)17th Dec 2020 18:10China+

15 Dec 2020 Japan's Punchy Tankan Likely Overstates the Actual Q4 Recovery

Business sentiment in Japan continues to recover in the current quarter, with the main Tankan indices surprising to the upside.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)14th Dec 2020 18:10China+

9 Dec 2020 Expect Japanese Consumption to Disappoint the Most this Quarter

Japan's GDP rebound in Q3 was upgraded to 5.3% quarter-on-quarter, from 5.0% in the preliminary report, representing a marginally sharper recovery from the revised 8.3%...

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)8th Dec 2020 18:10China+

26 Nov 2020 More Evidence of Japan's Stalling Recovery, as Downside Risks Mount

The recovery in private consumption in Japan is showing clear signs of stalling.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)25th Nov 2020 18:10China+

25 Nov 2020 No Turnaround on the Horizon for Cooling Property Prices in China

Property prices in China continued to cool in October, as pressure remains on developers to avoid being caught out by the government's "three red lines" against...

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)24th Nov 2020 18:10China+

17 Nov 2020 The Third Virus Wave and the Weak Jobs Market Threaten Japan's Q4

Japan's economy grew by 5.0% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, recouping just over half of the revised 8.2% contraction in Q2.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)16th Nov 2020 18:10China+

28 Sept 2020 Korea's Second Wave is Almost Over, but the Hit will Bleed into Q4

Consumer confidence in Korea plummeted in September for the first time since its first wave of Covid-19 earlier this year, in line with our view that the August increase was a...

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)27th Sep 2020 19:10China+

15 June 2020 Korea's Unemployment Rate will Surpass the Financial Crisis Peak

Korea's unemployment rate rose faster than expected in May, jumping to 4.5%, from 3.8% in April. We've been arguing for some time that the delayed impact of the economic...

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)14th Jun 2020 19:10China+

10 June 2020 Collapse in Overtime Hours and Pay in April is Damning for Japan's Q1

Private consumption in Japan will take time to recover, even if some semblance of normality returns from this month.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)9th Jun 2020 17:10China+

29 May 2020 Expect Another BoK Cut, as the Data will Continue to Disappoint

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea yesterday voted unanimously to lower its base rate by 25 basis points to a record low of 0.50%.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)28th May 2020 19:10China+

14 May 2020 Korea's Stable Unemployment Rate Belies the Ongoing Virus Hit to Jobs

Korea's unemployment rate was unchanged in April, at 3.8%, beating even our below-consensus forecast for only a minor uptick, to 3.9%.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)13th May 2020 19:10China+

Asia 11 May 2020 Ignore China's Sturdy April Exports, Catch-Up can only go so Far

China's export data for April were a mixed bag, to say the least.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)10th May 2020 19:10China+

1 Apr 2020 Hold Your Horses... A V-Shaped Recovery in China isn't Secured, Yet

China's official PMIs for March surprised well to the upside, cheering markets across Asia.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)31st Mar 2020 19:10China+

26 Mar 2020 China's Covid-19 Crisis Looks Worse than its GFC Hit

Q1 is not over yet, and we still await a lot of important data.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)25th Mar 2020 19:10China+

25 Mar 2020 The Plunge in Japan's Services PMI Confirms a Recession is Underway

If Japan's flash PMIs for March are a sign of things to come, then the government really should get moving on fiscal stimulus.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)24th Mar 2020 19:10China+

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