Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Asia Key Issues

The Coronavirus Pandemic

17 Dec 2020 The Risk of a Double-Dip in Japan is Rising, due to the Third Covid Wave

Japan's flash Jibun Bank PMIs for December were mixed, but they broadly confirm the significant moderation in GDP growth in the current quarter.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)16th Dec 2020 16:40China+

16 Dec 2020 China's Q4 Recovery has Wavered Only Slightly, Thanks to Consumers

Industrial production growth in China has peaked, notwithstanding the likely spike in Q1, when the base effects kick in from the Covid- induced shutdowns earlier this year.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)15th Dec 2020 16:20China+

15 Dec 2020 Japan's Punchy Tankan Likely Overstates the Actual Q4 Recovery

Business sentiment in Japan continues to recover in the current quarter, with the main Tankan indices surprising to the upside.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)14th Dec 2020 18:10China+

14 Dec 2020 Where are the Potential Surprises in Asia at the Turn of the Year?

As we head into 2021, a number of potential surprises--both positive and negative--could throw our full-year forecasts for Asia out of whack early in the year.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)13th Dec 2020 18:10China+

11 Dec 2020 China's Money Data Show no Real Cracks in the 2021 Recovery Story

China's latest money and credit data continue to reassure the PBoC that its job to secure the economy's recovery is done.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)10th Dec 2020 18:10China+

10 Dec 2020 The PBoC Never Cared much about Food Prices... this Won't Change

CPI inflation in China has fallen below zero for the first time since 2009, but we highly doubt that this will spook the PBoC.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)9th Dec 2020 18:10China+

9 Dec 2020 Expect Japanese Consumption to Disappoint the Most this Quarter

Japan's GDP rebound in Q3 was upgraded to 5.3% quarter-on-quarter, from 5.0% in the preliminary report, representing a marginally sharper recovery from the revised 8.3%...

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)8th Dec 2020 18:10China+

8 Dec 2020 Read this Before You get Excited About China's Historic Surplus

China's trade surplus rocketed unexpectedly in November, flying to an all-time high of $75.4B.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)7th Dec 2020 18:10China+

7 Dec 2020 Did the RBI Just Pour Cold Water on a February Rate Cut?

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India voted unanimously to keep the benchmark repo rate unchanged, at 4.00%, for a third straight meeting, as widely expected.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)6th Dec 2020 18:10China+

3 Dec 2020 Korea's Export Recovery is Back on Track, but Q4 will be More Muted

The recovery in Korean exports resumed in September, with shipments rising by 4.0% year- over-year, a turnaround from the 3.8% decline in the previous month.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)2nd Dec 2020 18:10China+

2 Dec 2020 China's Sturdy PMI Numbers for Q4, so far, Call for a GDP Upgrade

Chinese factories clearly had a strong month in November, looking at the complete manufacturing PMI data.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)1st Dec 2020 18:10China+

1 Dec 2020 More Questions than Answers after India's Hefty Q3 GDP Rebound

India's GDP report for the third quarter surprised to the upside, with the year-over-year contraction moderating significantly to -7.5%, from -23.9% in Q2.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)30th Nov 2020 18:10China+

30 Nov 2020 Enjoy the Roller-Coaster in Chinese Industrial Profits, It Won't Last Long

China's industrial profits data for October are a taste of what the silly season for economic data will look like for the first quarter of 2021.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)29th Nov 2020 18:10China+

27 Nov 2020 The BoK's Challenge in 2021 is Managing Rate Hike Expectations

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea yesterday left its benchmark base rate unchanged, at 0.50%, as widely expected.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)26th Nov 2020 18:10China+

26 Nov 2020 More Evidence of Japan's Stalling Recovery, as Downside Risks Mount

The recovery in private consumption in Japan is showing clear signs of stalling.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)25th Nov 2020 18:10China+

25 Nov 2020 No Turnaround on the Horizon for Cooling Property Prices in China

Property prices in China continued to cool in October, as pressure remains on developers to avoid being caught out by the government's "three red lines" against...

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)24th Nov 2020 18:10China+

24 Nov 2020 Korean Exports are Barely Flinching, Bolstering the Case for a BoK Hold

Korea's 20-day trade data for November are one of the first real health checks for global trade since Covid-19 started again to sweep through Europe and the U.S.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)23rd Nov 2020 18:10China+

20 Nov 2020 India's Q3 GDP Rebound will be a Very Hard Act to Follow

India's GDP report for the third quarter, due a week from today, is likely to show that the year- over-year downturn moderated significantly to -9%, from -24% in Q2.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)19th Nov 2020 18:10China+

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