Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Venezuela Growth

23 July 2021 Welcome to a New, and Even More Dovish, ECB Rate Guidance

The ECB formally presented its new inflation target yesterday, and updated the forward guidance on rates attached to it.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)23rd Jul 2021 00:10Eurozone

22 July 2021 All Change at the ECB Today as It Presents Its New Inflation Target

Today's ECB meeting was supposed to be a snoozer, in which the council goes on holiday with the message that it will hold off making any major decisions on the pace of...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)22nd Jul 2021 00:10Eurozone

21 July 2021 Sticking our Neck out With a Call on EZ Net Trade in 2021 and 2022

This is not, on the face of it, the best time to take a step back and look at the prospects for net exports in the Eurozone in a post-Covid world.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)21st Jul 2021 00:10Eurozone

16 July 2021 Data are Conflicting, but we Think China's Growth Slowed in Q2

Sometimes when you put together the Chinese data, it feels like you are drawing from multiple jigsaw puzzles, each with pieces missing.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)16th Jul 2021 00:00China+

15 July 2021 How Well did the EZ Economy do in the Second Quarter?

Virus cases fell throughout the second quarter, allowing EZ governments to ease restrictions and the economy to roar back to life.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)15th Jul 2021 00:10Eurozone

14 July 2021 Export Trends Remain Weak Despite the June Pop

Chinese exports surprised to the upside in June, with growth picking up to 32.2% year-over-year, from 27.9% in May.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)14th Jul 2021 00:00China+

13 July 2021 GDP Growth Probably was at its Lowest Point this Year in Q2

We've expressed misgivings for some time about the sustainability of GDP quarterly growth into Q2.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)13th Jul 2021 00:10China+

12 July 2021 Taking Stock of Italy's Economy in Q2; It's Good News

We last set our outlook for the Italian economy at the end of May--see here--and in this Monitor, we take stock of what has changed since. In preview; it's good news.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)12th Jul 2021 00:20Eurozone

12 July 2021 The RRR Cut was About Managing Interbank Liquidity

The PBoC followed through with a Reserve Requirement Ratio cut of 0.5 percentage points on Friday, hot on the heels of a strong hint to do so from the State Council meeting...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)12th Jul 2021 00:10China+

9 July 2021 The ECB's New Inflation Target Signals Looser Policy, in Theory

The ECB sprang a surprise on markets yesterday, releasing the details of its policy review--see here--ahead of the planned announcement in September.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)9th Jul 2021 00:10Eurozone

9 July 2021 An RRR Cut Addresses Immediate Problems, it's not a Broad Easing

It's easy to fall into the trap of thinking that the Chinese monetary authorities are shifting to a broad-based easing stance.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)9th Jul 2021 00:00China+

8 July 2021 German Industry was Sluggish in H1, Blame Collapsing Auto Output

Manufacturing in Germany has stalled. Data yesterday showed that industrial production, including construction, edged lower by 0.3% month-to-month in May, matching the revised...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)8th Jul 2021 00:10Eurozone

8 July 2021 CPI Inflation Could Still Edge Higher in June, Despite Mid-Year Weakness

Energy inflation is not straightforward to forecast in China, thanks to the lack of clarity over the CPI weights.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)8th Jul 2021 00:00China+

7 July 2021 EZ Manufacturing is Being Held Back by Weakness in Autos

Weakness in the core remained a drag on euro area manufacturing midway through Q2, amid strength elsewhere.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)7th Jul 2021 00:10Eurozone

6 July 2021 The ECB Probably will Come up with a New Inflation Target in Q3

Judging by the questions we're receiving from readers, and reports in the financial news, the outcome of the ECB's strategic policy review is now starting to occupy investors'...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)6th Jul 2021 00:20Eurozone

6 July 2021 Local Government Expenditure will Soon Pick up, but Soon Enough?

China's on-balance sheet government deficit has recovered fast since the initial Covid hit early last year, reaching a seasonally adjusted 3.9% of GDP in Q1, on our calculations,...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)6th Jul 2021 00:10China+

5 July 2021 How to get a Better Sense of what is Happening in EZ Services

We recently wrote about the prospects of a reopening leap in core inflation--see here--as the restrictions are eased.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)5th Jul 2021 00:20Eurozone

5 July 2021 We Still Aren't too Worried About China's Credit/Money Slowdown

China analysts have a not-so-secret weapon; credit and money trends are very good leading indicators of GDP growth. At the moment, the signal from those indicators is worrying.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)5th Jul 2021 00:10China+

2 July 2021 Chinese Manufacturing is Underperforming; Variants or Reversal

Data in the last few months have suggested that China's foreign trade and manufacturing sector is underperforming compared with Korea's. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)2nd Jul 2021 00:00China+

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