Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Key Issues

Portugal Central Banks

23 July 2021 Welcome to a New, and Even More Dovish, ECB Rate Guidance

The ECB formally presented its new inflation target yesterday, and updated the forward guidance on rates attached to it.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)23rd Jul 2021 00:10Eurozone

22 July 2021 All Change at the ECB Today as It Presents Its New Inflation Target

Today's ECB meeting was supposed to be a snoozer, in which the council goes on holiday with the message that it will hold off making any major decisions on the pace of...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)22nd Jul 2021 00:10Eurozone

19 July 2021 BoJ Playing it Down, but Green Fund Provisioning is Significant

Governor Kuroda was managing expectations about the new green fund-provisioning scheme in the press conference. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)19th Jul 2021 08:21China+

15 July 2021 Supporting Green Finance Could Become a Major BoJ Policy Plank

The BoJ's policy meeting on Friday is set to provide an outline of the fund-provisioning scheme, announced at its June meeting, to support green finance.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)15th Jul 2021 00:00China+

13 July 2021 The ECB is All-In on the Climate, but What does it Mean in Practice?

The ECB is pushing forward with its commitment to incorporate climate change into its policy framework over the next few years.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)13th Jul 2021 00:20Eurozone

9 July 2021 The ECB's New Inflation Target Signals Looser Policy, in Theory

The ECB sprang a surprise on markets yesterday, releasing the details of its policy review--see here--ahead of the planned announcement in September.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)9th Jul 2021 00:10Eurozone

6 July 2021 The ECB Probably will Come up with a New Inflation Target in Q3

Judging by the questions we're receiving from readers, and reports in the financial news, the outcome of the ECB's strategic policy review is now starting to occupy investors'...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)6th Jul 2021 00:20Eurozone

29 June 2021 Who's Afraid of the Taper? Not Many it Seems, for Now

From an immunological perspective, variant risk is assessed on a spectrum--no variant is either completely resistant or susceptible to the vaccines--but for markets it is...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)29th Jun 2021 00:20Eurozone

18 June 2021 A Quiet SNB, and a Guide to the EZ Inflation Data in H2

Yesterday's decision by the SNB to keep its policy rate unchanged, at -0.75%, was widely expected.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)18th Jun 2021 00:10Eurozone

17 June 2021 Expect a Quiet SNB Meeting, but Higher CHF Sales Needed Soon

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will keep its powder dry today and leave its policy rate at -0.75%, a number we recommend investors get used to.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)17th Jun 2021 00:10Eurozone

15 June 2021 A Closer Look at the ECB's New Forecasts; are we too Pessimistic?

In preview, we still think the central bank is setting the bar a bit too high.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)15th Jun 2021 00:20Eurozone

14 June 2021 We're Betting on a Further Fall in EZ Unemployment in H2

In any given quarter, the change in the unemployment rate can be derived by the difference between the change in employment and the change in the size of the labour force as a...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)14th Jun 2021 00:20Eurozone

11 June 2021 If the ECB's New Forecasts are Right, PEPP will be Axed in Q4

The ECB conformed to our expectations yesterday, guiding markets towards unchanged and ample accommodation through Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)11th Jun 2021 00:10Eurozone

10 June 2021 We Expect a Dovish ECB today, but Difficult Decisions Loom in H2

The best way to explain the ECB's position, ahead of today's policy decision, is that the central bank has plenty of circumstantial evidence that a strong recovery has begun,...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)10th Jun 2021 00:10Eurozone

9 June 2021 Consumers will have to Step up to Deliver a Solid Q2 in the Eurozone

Data yesterday showed that the euro area economy did better than initially estimated at the start of the year, contrary to our expectations, though the main story didn't change.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)9th Jun 2021 00:10Eurozone

4 June 2021 The EZ Services Sector is Now Stretching its Legs

If the PMIs are right, services activity in the Eurozone rebounded strongly midway through the second quarter, as virus restrictions were eased.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)4th Jun 2021 00:10Eurozone

2 June 2021 The Rise in EZ Headline Inflation is Over, for a Brief Moment

Inflation in the euro area increased further midway through the second quarter. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)2nd Jun 2021 00:10Eurozone

25 May 2021 A More Dovish Tone from the ECB as Difficult Decisions on QE Loom

A More Dovish Tone from the ECB as Difficult Decisions on QE Loom

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)25th May 2021 00:20Eurozone

21 May 2021 The Euro Glut is Alive and Well, in Fact, it Has Rarely Been Bigger

The Euro Glut is Alive and Well, in Fact, it Has Rarely Been Bigger

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)21st May 2021 00:20Eurozone

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