Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Mexico Trade

21 July 2021 Sticking our Neck out With a Call on EZ Net Trade in 2021 and 2022

This is not, on the face of it, the best time to take a step back and look at the prospects for net exports in the Eurozone in a post-Covid world.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)21st Jul 2021 00:10Eurozone

19 July 2021 EZ Core Inflation will Go Haywire in Q3; Take it With a Pinch of Salt

Friday's detailed inflation data in the EZ conformed to expectations. Headline inflation dipped by 0.1pp, to 1.9%, matching the initial estimate, while core inflation fell to...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)19th Jul 2021 00:10Eurozone

16 July 2021 Data are Conflicting, but we Think China's Growth Slowed in Q2

Sometimes when you put together the Chinese data, it feels like you are drawing from multiple jigsaw puzzles, each with pieces missing.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)16th Jul 2021 00:00China+

14 July 2021 Export Trends Remain Weak Despite the June Pop

Chinese exports surprised to the upside in June, with growth picking up to 32.2% year-over-year, from 27.9% in May.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)14th Jul 2021 00:00China+

13 July 2021 The ECB is All-In on the Climate, but What does it Mean in Practice?

The ECB is pushing forward with its commitment to incorporate climate change into its policy framework over the next few years.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)13th Jul 2021 00:20Eurozone

13 July 2021 GDP Growth Probably was at its Lowest Point this Year in Q2

We've expressed misgivings for some time about the sustainability of GDP quarterly growth into Q2.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)13th Jul 2021 00:10China+

8 July 2021 German Industry was Sluggish in H1, Blame Collapsing Auto Output

Manufacturing in Germany has stalled. Data yesterday showed that industrial production, including construction, edged lower by 0.3% month-to-month in May, matching the revised...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)8th Jul 2021 00:10Eurozone

8 July 2021 CPI Inflation Could Still Edge Higher in June, Despite Mid-Year Weakness

Energy inflation is not straightforward to forecast in China, thanks to the lack of clarity over the CPI weights.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)8th Jul 2021 00:00China+

2 July 2021 Chinese Manufacturing is Underperforming; Variants or Reversal

Data in the last few months have suggested that China's foreign trade and manufacturing sector is underperforming compared with Korea's. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)2nd Jul 2021 00:00China+

28 June 2021 June PMIs will Provide Further Evidence of a Mid-Year Slowdown

China's official manufacturing PMI looks exposed in the context of the recent softening of regional trade flows. Korean 20-day export growth for June slowed to 29.4%...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)28th Jun 2021 00:10China+

21 June 2021 Did the EZ Trade Surplus Really Fall at the Start of Q2

The Eurozone's external surplus rebounded at the start of Q2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)21st Jun 2021 00:20Eurozone

17 June 2021 Expect a Quiet SNB Meeting, but Higher CHF Sales Needed Soon

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will keep its powder dry today and leave its policy rate at -0.75%, a number we recommend investors get used to.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)17th Jun 2021 00:10Eurozone

16 June 2021 Ignore the April Plunge in the EZ Trade Surplus; a Rebound Beckons

Yesterday's euro area trade data from Eurostat were alarmingly poor.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)16th Jun 2021 00:10Eurozone

8 June 2021 German Manufacturing was Soft in April; Spain was Much Better

Yesterday's main economic reports point to mixed conditions in euro area manufacturing at the start of Q2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)8th Jun 2021 00:20Eurozone

8 June 2021 China is Exposed to a Double Whammy Against Exports

It's now widely appreciated that Chinese exports are exposed, as the global economy switches lanes to services, from manufacturing.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)8th Jun 2021 00:10China+

7 June 2021 Having Your Cake and Eating it as the Household Savings Rate Falls

China is at a critical point in the recovery. The economy is switching lanes from the supply-led, export-supported manufacturing surge to consumer and services drivers.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)7th Jun 2021 00:10China+

4 June 2021 The EZ Services Sector is Now Stretching its Legs

If the PMIs are right, services activity in the Eurozone rebounded strongly midway through the second quarter, as virus restrictions were eased.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)4th Jun 2021 00:10Eurozone

4 June 2021 Did the U.S. Stimulus Give the Trade Cycle a Final Boost in May

Chinese exports have recovered much more quickly than elsewhere, thanks in large part to the still strong command element of the economy. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)4th Jun 2021 00:00China+

3 June 2021 The Stage is Set for a Decent Rebound in Swiss GDP in Q2

In this Monitor, we are introducing our coverage of the Swiss economy, with a look at the recent Q1 GDP numbers, and an outlook for the rest of the year.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)3rd Jun 2021 00:10Eurozone

2 June 2021 Bottlenecks are Biting in the North East Asian Supply Chain

China's PMIs strongly suggest that supply-side bottlenecks, if anything, are worsening.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)2nd Jun 2021 00:00China+

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