Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Key Issues

Industry Inflation Expectations

27 July 2021 What to Expect from the Barrage of EZ Economic Data this Week

We look for Q2 GDP growth in the EZ at 1.5% quarter-on-quarter, the same as the consensus. This week's EZ inflation reports for July are a banana-skin for forecasters; don't...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)27th Jul 2021 00:20Eurozone

23 July 2021 Welcome to a New, and Even More Dovish, ECB Rate Guidance

The ECB formally presented its new inflation target yesterday, and updated the forward guidance on rates attached to it.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)23rd Jul 2021 00:10Eurozone

22 July 2021 All Change at the ECB Today as It Presents Its New Inflation Target

Today's ECB meeting was supposed to be a snoozer, in which the council goes on holiday with the message that it will hold off making any major decisions on the pace of...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)22nd Jul 2021 00:10Eurozone

19 July 2021 BoJ Playing it Down, but Green Fund Provisioning is Significant

Governor Kuroda was managing expectations about the new green fund-provisioning scheme in the press conference. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)19th Jul 2021 08:21China+

19 July 2021 EZ Core Inflation will Go Haywire in Q3; Take it With a Pinch of Salt

Friday's detailed inflation data in the EZ conformed to expectations. Headline inflation dipped by 0.1pp, to 1.9%, matching the initial estimate, while core inflation fell to...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)19th Jul 2021 00:10Eurozone

16 July 2021 Supply Constraints & Reopening Boost Italian & Spanish inflation

Earlier this week we delved into German and French inflation data, looking for signs of supply-side price pressures in goods prices, and a reopening bump in Covid-sensitive...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)16th Jul 2021 00:10Eurozone

15 July 2021 How Well did the EZ Economy do in the Second Quarter?

Virus cases fell throughout the second quarter, allowing EZ governments to ease restrictions and the economy to roar back to life.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)15th Jul 2021 00:10Eurozone

15 July 2021 Supporting Green Finance Could Become a Major BoJ Policy Plank

The BoJ's policy meeting on Friday is set to provide an outline of the fund-provisioning scheme, announced at its June meeting, to support green finance.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)15th Jul 2021 00:00China+

14 July 2021 On the Hunt for Supply Pressures, and Reopening in the EZ CPI Data

Yesterday's detailed inflation data in Germany and France were similar, at least as far as the main story goes.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)14th Jul 2021 00:10Eurozone

14 July 2021 Export Trends Remain Weak Despite the June Pop

Chinese exports surprised to the upside in June, with growth picking up to 32.2% year-over-year, from 27.9% in May.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)14th Jul 2021 00:00China+

12 July 2021 The RRR Cut was About Managing Interbank Liquidity

The PBoC followed through with a Reserve Requirement Ratio cut of 0.5 percentage points on Friday, hot on the heels of a strong hint to do so from the State Council meeting...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)12th Jul 2021 00:10China+

9 July 2021 The ECB's New Inflation Target Signals Looser Policy, in Theory

The ECB sprang a surprise on markets yesterday, releasing the details of its policy review--see here--ahead of the planned announcement in September.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)9th Jul 2021 00:10Eurozone

8 July 2021 CPI Inflation Could Still Edge Higher in June, Despite Mid-Year Weakness

Energy inflation is not straightforward to forecast in China, thanks to the lack of clarity over the CPI weights.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)8th Jul 2021 00:00China+

6 July 2021 The ECB Probably will Come up with a New Inflation Target in Q3

Judging by the questions we're receiving from readers, and reports in the financial news, the outcome of the ECB's strategic policy review is now starting to occupy investors'...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)6th Jul 2021 00:20Eurozone

1 July 2021 All Aboard for a Wild Ride in the Second Half EZ Inflation Numbers

Yesterday's advance CPI data in the Eurozone broadly confirmed our expectations.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)1st Jul 2021 00:10Eurozone

1 July 2021 Manufacturing PMI Points to Q2 GDP Growth Slowdown

The official manufacturing PMI indicates that bottlenecks remain a problem.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)1st Jul 2021 00:00China+

30 June 2021 Eurozone Headline Inflation Fell only Marginally in June

Data yesterday revealed that inflation in Germany eased slightly at the end of Q2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)30th Jun 2021 00:10Eurozone

29 June 2021 Don't Write off a Consumer Spending Pop Just Yet

The potential for a consumption-led rebound in Chinese GDP growth is being underestimated, and we still expect a pop of faster growth.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)29th Jun 2021 00:10China+

28 June 2021 June PMIs will Provide Further Evidence of a Mid-Year Slowdown

China's official manufacturing PMI looks exposed in the context of the recent softening of regional trade flows. Korean 20-day export growth for June slowed to 29.4%...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)28th Jun 2021 00:10China+

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