Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Equities Monetary Policy

5 Aug 2021 High Political Risk in the Andes Offsetting Upbeat Economic News

Peruvian New Sol --  President Castillo already on fire Chilean Peso --The copper-driven sell-off Colombian Peso -- Deteriorating fundamentals

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

3 Aug 2021 China's Manufacturing Underperformance Continues

China's weak July PMIs play into a wider story of underperformance in trade and manufacturing. The official and Caixin reports are at odds on prices, but we reckon PPI...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

2 Aug 2021 Underlying Chinese Inflation is More Progressed than in DMs

China's PPI inflation is at or near its peak, and CPI inflation remains relatively tame... ... But underlying inflationary pressure is more ad- vanced in China, thanks to the...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

29 July 2021 The PMIs Should Offer Some Signs of Stabilisation this Month

Q2 CPI inflation exceeded the MPC's one-quarter ahead forecast by the most for 13 years... ...But only two members have implied they will vote to end QE; pushback from the...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

27 July 2021 What to Expect from the Barrage of EZ Economic Data this Week

We look for Q2 GDP growth in the EZ at 1.5% quarter-on-quarter, the same as the consensus. This week's EZ inflation reports for July are a banana-skin for forecasters; don't...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 July 2021 PBoC RRR Cut versus Fed Taper is a False Dichotomy

From all the PBoC's vast toolbox, the most important thing right now is the clues to be gleaned over intentions on rates from open market operations.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

14 July 2021 Export Trends Remain Weak Despite the June Pop

Chinese exports surprised to the upside in June, with growth picking up to 32.2% year-over-year, from 27.9% in May.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

12 July 2021 The RRR Cut was About Managing Interbank Liquidity

The PBoC followed through with a Reserve Requirement Ratio cut of 0.5 percentage points on Friday, hot on the heels of a strong hint to do so from the State Council meeting...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

9 July 2021 The ECB's New Inflation Target Signals Looser Policy, in Theory

The ECB sprang a surprise on markets yesterday, releasing the details of its policy review--see here--ahead of the planned announcement in September.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 July 2021 An RRR Cut Addresses Immediate Problems, it's not a Broad Easing

It's easy to fall into the trap of thinking that the Chinese monetary authorities are shifting to a broad-based easing stance.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

6 July 2021 The ECB Probably will Come up with a New Inflation Target in Q3

Judging by the questions we're receiving from readers, and reports in the financial news, the outcome of the ECB's strategic policy review is now starting to occupy investors'...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 July 2021 We Still Aren't too Worried About China's Credit/Money Slowdown

China analysts have a not-so-secret weapon; credit and money trends are very good leading indicators of GDP growth. At the moment, the signal from those indicators is worrying.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

29 June 2021 Don't Write off a Consumer Spending Pop Just Yet

The potential for a consumption-led rebound in Chinese GDP growth is being underestimated, and we still expect a pop of faster growth.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

28 June 2021 Don't Fear the Slowdown in EZ M1 Growth; the Trend is still Solid

Data on Friday showed that money supply growth in the Eurozone slowed further midway through Q2. Broad money, M3, rose by 8.4% year-over-year in May, easing from a 9.4% increase...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 June 2021 Moving Closer to the First Set of EU Recovery Fund Disbursements

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is currently on tour in Europe, negotiating with national governments on the final makeup of the spending plans for the...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 June 2021 A Quiet SNB, and a Guide to the EZ Inflation Data in H2

Yesterday's decision by the SNB to keep its policy rate unchanged, at -0.75%, was widely expected.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 June 2021 Expect a Quiet SNB Meeting, but Higher CHF Sales Needed Soon

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will keep its powder dry today and leave its policy rate at -0.75%, a number we recommend investors get used to.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 June 2021 If the ECB's New Forecasts are Right, PEPP will be Axed in Q4

The ECB conformed to our expectations yesterday, guiding markets towards unchanged and ample accommodation through Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 June 2021 Monetary Conditions Finally Look to be Stabilising

The PBoC has had its foot off the brake for most of this year so far, following tightening through the second half of 2020, culminating in its efforts to shake out speculative...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

4 June 2021 Did the U.S. Stimulus Give the Trade Cycle a Final Boost in May

Chinese exports have recovered much more quickly than elsewhere, thanks in large part to the still strong command element of the economy. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

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