Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Currencies Money

8 Oct 2021 No Capital Outflows Yet, but Contagion is Still Spreading

No cause for concern in foreign exchange reserves data. Capital outflow pressure appears modest and re- serves sufficient, for now. Property sector stress is growing,...

Craig BothamChina+

28 Sept 2021 A Traffic Light or a New Grand Coalition in Germany

Germany will get a Traffic Light or a new Grand Coalition, but we don't dare bet on either outcome. Slower growth in EZ real M1 points to a further dip in the composite PMI to...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Aug 2021 Did the Eurozone Survey Data Soften Midway through Q3?

The second Q2 GDP estimate for the EZ will confirm the advance report while we are away. Detailed GDP data in Germany will show that consumers' spending rocketed in Q2. We...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 Aug 2021 PBoC Easing Remains Unlikely, Despite July's Soft Money Data

Both M1 and M2 growth missed expectations in July, but the former arguably is due a turnaround. Slowing household demand for credit isn't exactly concerning, as they are still...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

28 July 2021 A Sneak-Peek at the Likely Pace of EZ GDP growth in H1 2022

Robust M1 growth points to solid GDP growth in the Eurozone, once the dust settles from reopening. Loan growth is slowing, but that's mainly due to base effects; the underlying...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 July 2021 All Change at the ECB Today as It Presents Its New Inflation Target

Today's ECB meeting was supposed to be a snoozer, in which the council goes on holiday with the message that it will hold off making any major decisions on the pace of...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 June 2021 Don't Fear the Slowdown in EZ M1 Growth; the Trend is still Solid

Data on Friday showed that money supply growth in the Eurozone slowed further midway through Q2. Broad money, M3, rose by 8.4% year-over-year in May, easing from a 9.4% increase...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 June 2021 Monetary Conditions Finally Look to be Stabilising

The PBoC has had its foot off the brake for most of this year so far, following tightening through the second half of 2020, culminating in its efforts to shake out speculative...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

4 June 2021 The EZ Services Sector is Now Stretching its Legs

If the PMIs are right, services activity in the Eurozone rebounded strongly midway through the second quarter, as virus restrictions were eased.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 June 2021 The Stage is Set for a Decent Rebound in Swiss GDP in Q2

In this Monitor, we are introducing our coverage of the Swiss economy, with a look at the recent Q1 GDP numbers, and an outlook for the rest of the year.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 June 2021 The Rise in EZ Headline Inflation is Over, for a Brief Moment

Inflation in the euro area increased further midway through the second quarter. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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