Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Currencies Growth Fiscal Policy

16 Mar 2022 Stronger than Expected, but for How Long, as Headwinds Build

China's state sector led a rebound in economic growth in early 2022, as investment surged. Data is always noisy at this time of year, however, and the surge is driven by frontloading spending. Growth will likely slow by April, given soaring Covid cases and base effects, prompting more easing.

Craig BothamChina+

27 Jan 2022 Chinese Property Sector Update, Keep a Cool Head on Easing

China's property sector plummeted over the course of 2021, and nosedives are hard to escape. Policy easing looks modest compared to previous cycles, in line with government messaging. The impact of easing on growth will also be weaker than markets expect, based on past cycles.

Craig BothamChina+

23 Nov 2021 Bottlenecks and Chinese Policy to Ease, but Keep Calm

Korean trade data show further signs of an easing in congested supply chains. Chinese policymakers turn more dovish, but no real relief for the property sector. Renminbi strength starts to bother the PBoC, but "two-way volatility" is more likely than devaluation.

Craig BothamChina+

17 Nov 2021 Japan's Recovery Can't Afford Policy Mistakes

Japanese growth fell sharply in Q3, as both consumption and capex declined. A near-term rebound is on the cards, as temporary headwinds fade. Beyond Q4, however, growth needs policy support merely to return to, let alone surpass, its trend.

Craig BothamChina+

26 Oct 2021 German GDP Rose Strongly in Q3, but by Less than the Consensus

We think GDP in Germany rose by 1.8% q/q in Q3, 0.4pp slower than the consensus forecast. Sell-side forecasts for German GDP growth in 2021 will have to come down, to around 2.5%... ...And we also struggle with consensus expectations for 4-to-4.5% growth in 2022; we're at 3.5%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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