Pantheon Macroeconomics

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22 Oct 2021 How will the EZ Respond to Rising Virus Cases in Q4?

A four-week Covid lockdown in Latvia is a warning shot across the bow for the EZ... ...But we're sticking to our view that hospitalisations will remain contained, even as...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Oct 2021 EZ Equity Earnings are Rising, but Can the Upturn Continue?

EZ equity earnings have recovered handsomely this year, leaving valuations more attractive. Markets still expect strong earnings growth in the next 12 months; the macro data...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Oct 2021 China's Policymakers Unmoved, Despite a Sharper Slowdown

Growth slowed in September, as energy shortages and property market weakness hit the economy. Industrial production, investment and GDP all reflected elements of the twin...

Craig BothamChina+

15 Oct 2021 The Evergrande Fiasco and Energy Prices Will Spoil the Recovery

A weak third quarter GDP print for China is a certainty, with the economy facing multiple headwinds. Early data hint at the damage done, but September is just the start. The...

Craig BothamChina+

14 Oct 2021 How Much Fiscal Support for the French Economy Next Year?

The burden of adjustment in France's budget deficit in 2022 will fall on lower expenditures... ...But the preliminary budget looks overall growth friendly; it will be 2.0pp...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 Oct 2021 Supply Chain Disruptions are Visible, Despite Export Strength

Expectations for a Chinese export slowdown in September were confounded... ...But this was due chiefly to one-off factors, and imports showed the impact of China's...

Craig BothamChina+

13 Oct 2021 GDP Growth Forecast Down and Inflation Forecasts Up in the EZ?

We look for lower consensus growth forecasts in Q4, even as inflation forecasts advance further. Fiscal stimulus is a wildcard for 2022 GDP forecasts, but near-term risks...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Oct 2021 A Hawkish Hold, but Future Hikes Likely to be Interrupted

The BoK struck a hawkish note despite holding rates, strongly suggesting a November hike. Household debt remains the focus of policy, but there's a risk of complacency over...

Craig BothamChina+

12 Oct 2021 Spain's Government is Predicting a Growth Party in 2022; Is it Right?

The Spanish government is continuing to support the recovery next year... ...But its GDP growth forecasts, reliant on hefty in- creases in investment, seem too high to...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 Oct 2021 We're Reducing our Q3 GDP Growth Forecasts in Germany

German auto output crashed in August; we're nudging our Q3 GDP growth forecasts down, to 2.0% q/q. The Q3 plunge in German industry is clear evidence that supply-side woes are...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 Oct 2021 No Capital Outflows Yet, but Contagion is Still Spreading

No cause for concern in foreign exchange reserves data. Capital outflow pressure appears modest and re- serves sufficient, for now. Property sector stress is growing,...

Craig BothamChina+

7 Oct 2021 German Manufacturing Crashed in Q3, but it Did Better Elsewhere

German manufacturing crashed in Q3, due to weakness in autos; GDP growth downgrades ahead. Spanish industrial production fell again in August, but output in the auto sector...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Oct 2021 How to Understand and Use Inflation Expectations in the EZ

EZ inflation expectations don't predict inflation, but they're not entirely without value either. Industrial production in France rose again in August; Q3 as a whole likely was...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 Oct 2021 Inflation in Switzerland is Likely as High as it Gets

Inflation in Switzerland likely has peaked, keeping it lower than the headline HICP in the EZ... ...Currency effects will soon be a drag on headline inflation, to the SNB's...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 Sept 2021 What is the Fiscal Multiplier for Government Spending in Italy

The Italian government's GDP growth forecast for next year looks too high to us. Spain's new ERTE scheme is the first of, probably many, Covid-led labour market reforms in the...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 Sept 2021 The ECB is on Team-Transitory on Rising Inflation in the EZ, for Now

Ms. Lagarde strikes a dovish tone at the ECB Forum, but sticks to the script that PEPP will end in Q1. Rate expectations have increased substantially in the EZ; we doubt the...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 Sept 2021 September Storms Cloud China's Growth Outlook

The energy crisis and Evergrande's distress prompt downgrades to our growth outlook. Energy shortages will likely have the bigger short term impact, with Evergrande a chronic...

Craig BothamChina+

28 Sept 2021 A Traffic Light or a New Grand Coalition in Germany

Germany will get a Traffic Light or a new Grand Coalition, but we don't dare bet on either outcome. Slower growth in EZ real M1 points to a further dip in the composite PMI to...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 Sept 2021 Energy Crisis will have a Greater Short-Term Impact than Evergrande

Widespread electricity rationing will drive activity down in September and October. Property is bigger long-term concern, but energy rationing will have a more immediate...

Craig BothamChina+

23 Sept 2021 Another SNB Snoozefest; Limited Impact from Evergrande on EZ

No one expects any changes at the SNB today, us included; we think policy will be on hold until 2024. The CHF will strengthen to the end of the year, but not enough to warrant...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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