Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Brazil Services

26 July 2021 Savings Data Suggest Households are Loosening the Purse Strings

Our analysis reveals that GDP growth in the first half may have been significantly stronger than billed. In particular, the household savings rate dropped sharply, back to...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)26th Jul 2021 00:10China+

16 July 2021 Supply Constraints & Reopening Boost Italian & Spanish inflation

Earlier this week we delved into German and French inflation data, looking for signs of supply-side price pressures in goods prices, and a reopening bump in Covid-sensitive...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)16th Jul 2021 00:10Eurozone

15 July 2021 How Well did the EZ Economy do in the Second Quarter?

Virus cases fell throughout the second quarter, allowing EZ governments to ease restrictions and the economy to roar back to life.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)15th Jul 2021 00:10Eurozone

14 July 2021 On the Hunt for Supply Pressures, and Reopening in the EZ CPI Data

Yesterday's detailed inflation data in Germany and France were similar, at least as far as the main story goes.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)14th Jul 2021 00:10Eurozone

13 July 2021 GDP Growth Probably was at its Lowest Point this Year in Q2

We've expressed misgivings for some time about the sustainability of GDP quarterly growth into Q2.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)13th Jul 2021 00:10China+

8 July 2021 German Industry was Sluggish in H1, Blame Collapsing Auto Output

Manufacturing in Germany has stalled. Data yesterday showed that industrial production, including construction, edged lower by 0.3% month-to-month in May, matching the revised...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)8th Jul 2021 00:10Eurozone

8 July 2021 CPI Inflation Could Still Edge Higher in June, Despite Mid-Year Weakness

Energy inflation is not straightforward to forecast in China, thanks to the lack of clarity over the CPI weights.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)8th Jul 2021 00:00China+

6 July 2021 Local Government Expenditure will Soon Pick up, but Soon Enough?

China's on-balance sheet government deficit has recovered fast since the initial Covid hit early last year, reaching a seasonally adjusted 3.9% of GDP in Q1, on our calculations,...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)6th Jul 2021 00:10China+

5 July 2021 How to get a Better Sense of what is Happening in EZ Services

We recently wrote about the prospects of a reopening leap in core inflation--see here--as the restrictions are eased.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)5th Jul 2021 00:20Eurozone

1 July 2021 Manufacturing PMI Points to Q2 GDP Growth Slowdown

The official manufacturing PMI indicates that bottlenecks remain a problem.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)1st Jul 2021 00:00China+

30 June 2021 Eurozone Headline Inflation Fell only Marginally in June

Data yesterday revealed that inflation in Germany eased slightly at the end of Q2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)30th Jun 2021 00:10Eurozone

28 June 2021 June PMIs will Provide Further Evidence of a Mid-Year Slowdown

China's official manufacturing PMI looks exposed in the context of the recent softening of regional trade flows. Korean 20-day export growth for June slowed to 29.4%...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)28th Jun 2021 00:10China+

25 June 2021 More Upbeat Survey Data in the EZ; Services are Driving the Upturn

Yesterday's national survey data in the core Eurozone economies added to the evidence that services are now driving the recovery.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)25th Jun 2021 00:10Eurozone

24 June 2021 EZ GDP Likely Rebounded Solidly in Q2, but Markets Fear Tapering

The evidence continues to support our own and consensus forecasts that the euro area economy is roaring back to life in the second quarter.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)24th Jun 2021 00:10Eurozone

18 June 2021 A Quiet SNB, and a Guide to the EZ Inflation Data in H2

Yesterday's decision by the SNB to keep its policy rate unchanged, at -0.75%, was widely expected.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)18th Jun 2021 00:10Eurozone

15 June 2021 A Closer Look at the ECB's New Forecasts; are we too Pessimistic?

In preview, we still think the central bank is setting the bar a bit too high.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)15th Jun 2021 00:20Eurozone

14 June 2021 What Do China's Emissions Targets Mean for Policy this Year?

Last year President Xi announced a new target for China, with the importance of GDP targeting diminishing.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)14th Jun 2021 00:10China+

11 June 2021 Monetary Conditions Finally Look to be Stabilising

The PBoC has had its foot off the brake for most of this year so far, following tightening through the second half of 2020, culminating in its efforts to shake out speculative...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)11th Jun 2021 00:00China+

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