Pantheon Macroeconomics

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15 Oct 2021 Spanish Firms Disproportionately Impacted by Surging Gas Prices

Gas prices in Europe have continued their rise since the start of the year... ...Governments are trying hard to shield consumers, but businesses will be hit harder. Our...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 Oct 2021 Core Inflation in Germany Will Rise above 3% in the Fourth Quarter

German core inflation is still rising; we think it will hit 3%-plus in Q4, before easing in January. Electricity inflation in Spain is still rocketing, threatening consumer's...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 Oct 2021 How Much Fiscal Support for the French Economy Next Year?

The burden of adjustment in France's budget deficit in 2022 will fall on lower expenditures... ...But the preliminary budget looks overall growth friendly; it will be 2.0pp...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Oct 2021 GDP Growth Forecast Down and Inflation Forecasts Up in the EZ?

We look for lower consensus growth forecasts in Q4, even as inflation forecasts advance further. Fiscal stimulus is a wildcard for 2022 GDP forecasts, but near-term risks...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 Oct 2021 Spain's Government is Predicting a Growth Party in 2022; Is it Right?

The Spanish government is continuing to support the recovery next year... ...But its GDP growth forecasts, reliant on hefty in- creases in investment, seem too high to...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 Oct 2021 We're Reducing our Q3 GDP Growth Forecasts in Germany

German auto output crashed in August; we're nudging our Q3 GDP growth forecasts down, to 2.0% q/q. The Q3 plunge in German industry is clear evidence that supply-side woes are...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 Oct 2021 German Manufacturing Crashed in Q3, but it Did Better Elsewhere

German manufacturing crashed in Q3, due to weakness in autos; GDP growth downgrades ahead. Spanish industrial production fell again in August, but output in the auto sector...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Oct 2021 How to Understand and Use Inflation Expectations in the EZ

EZ inflation expectations don't predict inflation, but they're not entirely without value either. Industrial production in France rose again in August; Q3 as a whole likely was...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 Oct 2021 Inflation in Switzerland is Likely as High as it Gets

Inflation in Switzerland likely has peaked, keeping it lower than the headline HICP in the EZ... ...Currency effects will soon be a drag on headline inflation, to the SNB's...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Oct 2021 Another Month, Another Upside Surprise in the EZ Inflation Data

EZ inflation rose further in September, probably by 0.5pp to 3.5%, higher than the consensus, 3.3%. Core inflation in the EZ was lifted by gains in Italy and Germany in...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 Sept 2021 What is the Fiscal Multiplier for Government Spending in Italy

The Italian government's GDP growth forecast for next year looks too high to us. Spain's new ERTE scheme is the first of, probably many, Covid-led labour market reforms in the...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 Sept 2021 The ECB is on Team-Transitory on Rising Inflation in the EZ, for Now

Ms. Lagarde strikes a dovish tone at the ECB Forum, but sticks to the script that PEPP will end in Q1. Rate expectations have increased substantially in the EZ; we doubt the...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 Sept 2021 A Traffic Light or a New Grand Coalition in Germany

Germany will get a Traffic Light or a new Grand Coalition, but we don't dare bet on either outcome. Slower growth in EZ real M1 points to a further dip in the composite PMI to...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 Sept 2021 Another SNB Snoozefest; Limited Impact from Evergrande on EZ

No one expects any changes at the SNB today, us included; we think policy will be on hold until 2024. The CHF will strengthen to the end of the year, but not enough to warrant...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 Sept 2021 A New Chancellor in Germany, but Same-Old Murky Coalition Politics

The polls in Germany have stabilised, pointing to an inconclusive result in Sunday's vote. The SPD's Olaf Scholz likely will be Chancellor, but the route to a stable coalition...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Sept 2021 Inflation Next Year Will be a Challenge for the ECB and Markets

Our 2022 core inflation forecast signal that trouble is brewing for markets and the ECB. Core inflation will fall in Q1, but it will be back at just under 2% by spring, and...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 Sept 2021 Winter is Coming in Europe; Hopefully it Won't be Too Cold

A cold winter will turn rising gas prices into a macroeconomic issue; Q4 risks are tilted to the downside. Car sales in the Eurozone aren't going anywhere, mirroring the...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 Sept 2021 EZ Wages are Back to Pre-Virus Levels, and More Gains to Come

Growth in EZ hourly labour costs plunged in Q2, but other, more timely, data point to robust wage gains. Ms. Lagarde's comments last week suggest that we should watch...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 Sept 2021 Will High, and Rising, Gas Prices Keep EZ Inflation Elevated?

The trend in oil prices suggests energy inflation will soon fall and even turn negative next year in the EZ... ...But high, and rising, gas prices will offset this impact,...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 Sept 2021 How to Think about the Trajectory of EZ Fiscal Policy Next Year

EZ fiscal policy will tighten next year, but it will remain much more supportive than before Covid.  EU grants will fund public expenditure to the tune of about 0.5% of GDP...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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