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Preliminary trade data from Korea point to a loss of momentum for global trade in March. War and Covid have tightened some bottlenecks, but demand is also under pressure from oil prices. The PBoC again opted not to ramp up monetary easing, despite recent messaging from Beijing.
China's CPI inflation surge was short-lived, and is set to be followed by a sharp reversal, soon. Producer prices are also rolling over rapidly, relieving inflation pressure at home and abroad. Omicron is now spreading in China, which will hit activity and inflation, but disrupt supply chains.
Korean trade data show further signs of an easing in congested supply chains. Chinese policymakers turn more dovish, but no real relief for the property sector. Renminbi strength starts to bother the PBoC, but "two-way volatility" is more likely than devaluation.
Ms. Lagarde pushed back against rate expectations yesterday, but markets didn't listen. A deposit rate hike in 2022 would mean a swift end of QE next year; that won't happen. Eurozone inflation likely blew past the consensus again in October; we look for a headline of 4% y/y.
No change in policy settings from the BoJ, but a decided turn for the worse in the growth outlook. The coronavirus, coupled with supply-side issues, is weighing on the short-term outlook. Currency weakness is drawing greater attention, and we think the BoJ will need to act next year.
Rising rate expectations are at odds with the ECB's forward guidance; we expect a push-back today. We still think the PEPP will end in March, but don't look for a clear signal today either way. Mixed consumer confidence data in the core, and a slowdown in headline EZ money supply growth.
Euro area energy inflation will rise further in Q4, but we think the core rate has peaked. Risks are tilted towards persistently high core and headline inflation in the next 12 months... ...But that doesn't justify the leap in Eurozone rate expectations in the past few weeks.
EZ equity earnings have recovered handsomely this year, leaving valuations more attractive. Markets still expect strong earnings growth in the next 12 months; the macro data suggest otherwise. The pace of policy tightening implied by global rate expectations will soon be an issue for EZ equities.
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