Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

Key Issues

Banco Central de la Repúublica

23 Nov 2021 Bottlenecks and Chinese Policy to Ease, but Keep Calm

Korean trade data show further signs of an easing in congested supply chains. Chinese policymakers turn more dovish, but no real relief for the property sector. Renminbi strength starts to bother the PBoC, but "two-way volatility" is more likely than devaluation.

Craig BothamChina+

29 Oct 2021 Either Markets aren't Listening to the ECB, or they Don't Believe it

Ms. Lagarde pushed back against rate expectations yesterday, but markets didn't listen. A deposit rate hike in 2022 would mean a swift end of QE next year; that won't happen. Eurozone inflation likely blew past the consensus again in October; we look for a headline of 4% y/y.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

29 Oct 2021 The BoJ Turns Bearish on Near- Term Risks

No change in policy settings from the BoJ, but a decided turn for the worse in the growth outlook. The coronavirus, coupled with supply-side issues, is weighing on the short-term outlook. Currency weakness is drawing greater attention, and we think the BoJ will need to act next year.

Craig BothamChina+

28 Oct 2021 The ECB will Push Back Against Rising Rate Expectations Today

Rising rate expectations are at odds with the ECB's forward guidance; we expect a push-back today. We still think the PEPP will end in March, but don't look for a clear signal today either way. Mixed consumer confidence data in the core, and a slowdown in headline EZ money supply growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Oct 2021 EZ Inflation is Still Red Hot, but a Cyclical Peak is Close

Euro area energy inflation will rise further in Q4, but we think the core rate has peaked. Risks are tilted towards persistently high core and headline inflation in the next 12 months... ...But that doesn't justify the leap in Eurozone rate expectations in the past few weeks.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Oct 2021 EZ Equity Earnings are Rising, but Can the Upturn Continue?

EZ equity earnings have recovered handsomely this year, leaving valuations more attractive. Markets still expect strong earnings growth in the next 12 months; the macro data suggest otherwise. The pace of policy tightening implied by global rate expectations will soon be an issue for EZ equities.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Oct 2021 GDP Growth Forecast Down and Inflation Forecasts Up in the EZ?

We look for lower consensus growth forecasts in Q4, even as inflation forecasts advance further. Fiscal stimulus is a wildcard for 2022 GDP forecasts, but near-term risks remain tilted to the downside. Stagflation risks are real, warning of less potent fiscal stimulus and a more constrained ECB.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Oct 2021 A Hawkish Hold, but Future Hikes Likely to be Interrupted

The BoK struck a hawkish note despite holding rates, strongly suggesting a November hike. Household debt remains the focus of policy, but there's a risk of complacency over growth. China is still deteriorating, and data over the next fortnight will be just a taste.

Craig BothamChina+

8 Oct 2021 No Capital Outflows Yet, but Contagion is Still Spreading

No cause for concern in foreign exchange reserves data. Capital outflow pressure appears modest and re- serves sufficient, for now. Property sector stress is growing, however, and cracks are appearing for key actors.

Craig BothamChina+

6 Oct 2021 How to Understand and Use Inflation Expectations in the EZ

EZ inflation expectations don't predict inflation, but they're not entirely without value either. Industrial production in France rose again in August; Q3 as a whole likely was decent. We think the PMI surveys are underestimating actual GDP growth in Q3, especially in Spain.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 Sept 2021 The ECB is on Team-Transitory on Rising Inflation in the EZ, for Now

Ms. Lagarde strikes a dovish tone at the ECB Forum, but sticks to the script that PEPP will end in Q1. Rate expectations have increased substantially in the EZ; we doubt the ECB is happy with this. Solid consumer sentiment data in France and Germany offer contrast to soft business surveys.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 Sept 2021 Another SNB Snoozefest; Limited Impact from Evergrande on EZ

No one expects any changes at the SNB today, us included; we think policy will be on hold until 2024. The CHF will strengthen to the end of the year, but not enough to warrant significant FX intervention. Markets are worried about Evergrande--rightly--but contagion is limited, for now.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Sept 2021 Inflation Next Year Will be a Challenge for the ECB and Markets

Our 2022 core inflation forecast signal that trouble is brewing for markets and the ECB. Core inflation will fall in Q1, but it will be back at just under 2% by spring, and through the summer. The ECB will stay dovish, but it will lift its inflation forecasts further; this will unsettle markets.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 Sept 2021 EZ Wages are Back to Pre-Virus Levels, and More Gains to Come

Growth in EZ hourly labour costs plunged in Q2, but other, more timely, data point to robust wage gains. Ms. Lagarde's comments last week suggest that we should watch negotiated wages closely in H2. We see few signs of accelerating wage growth in 2021 collective bargaining agreements, yet.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 Sept 2021 Will High, and Rising, Gas Prices Keep EZ Inflation Elevated?

The trend in oil prices suggests energy inflation will soon fall and even turn negative next year in the EZ... ...But high, and rising, gas prices will offset this impact, keeping energy inflation sticky. We doubt this will lead the ECB to taper more quickly, particularly if some restrictions return in winter.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 Sept 2021 A Slight Slowdown in PEPP is Coming in Q4, as Expected

The ECB will slow the pace of PEPP in Q4, probably by around €20B, to €60-€70B per month. Bond yields fell as Ms. Lagarde spoke, but will the ECB's decision on PEPP in Q4 satisfy markets? The German trade surplus snapped back in July, as imports plunged; more of the same is coming.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 Sept 2021 The ECB will Signal a Slower Q4 Pace of PEPP Purchases Today

The ECB will announce a slowdown in the pace of PEPP today, but markets likely won't flinch. The central bank's new forecasts will deliver upgrades to the outlook for growth and inflation. Trade data in France suggest that tourism is rebounding, but a full recovery is still a way off.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 Sept 2021 A V-Shaped Recovery in the EZ Economy is Now in Sight

German industrial output rebounded at the start of Q3, but the trend likely is still flat. Consumers' spending propelled the EZ economy in Q2; a full recovery in GDP is possible in Q3. We are lifting our full-year forecasts for 2021, but this is mostly book-keeping; growth is now slowing.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

31 Aug 2021 EZ Core Inflation Leapt in August, due Mainly to Technical Factors

Core inflation in the euro area rocketed in August, but we doubt that markets will notice. PEPP tapering is coming, but the overall tenor of the ECB's communication remains as dovish as ever. The EZ survey data are now softening, but that won't matter for GDP in Q3; for Q4, however, it might.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 Aug 2021 Your Guide to the Somewhat Confusing July CPI in Germany

VAT base effects in core goods were the main driver of the July leap in German inflation. The yawning gap between national and HICP services inflation will close soon; the latter will rebound. We now see clear evidence of a reopening bump in hospitality prices; will it be sustained?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Author

Global Publications Only

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters
Consistently Right

Access Key Enabled Navigation

Keywords for: Key Issues

Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence