Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Key Issues

Balance of Payments

9 Nov 2021 A Sprint to the Finish may Leave China's Trade Fading Next Year

China's latest trade data were better than expected, setting up a potential upside surprise for Q4. Energy imports will weigh more heavily on the trade balance, but external demand appears robust. Next year will be more challenging, given base effects and softening demand.

Craig BothamChina+

23 Sept 2021 Evergrande and PBoC Scramble to Reassure, but Doubts Remain

Evergrande's vague statement won't cut it, but the PBoC is on the case, for now... ...More will be needed from both parties, though, particularly with dollar debt default still looming. BoJ green policy has potential, but it needs fiscal support to be realised.

Craig BothamChina+

6 Aug 2021 The Trade Surplus is Likely to Remain Under Pressure

July exports likely weakened, while imports will be boosted by the tail end of commodities inflation. PPI inflation may not yet have peaked; headline CPI inflation is just about food prices. M1 growth should now be troughing, but an RRR cut is looking more likely nonetheless.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

3 Aug 2021 China's Manufacturing Underperformance Continues

China's weak July PMIs play into a wider story of underperformance in trade and manufacturing. The official and Caixin reports are at odds on prices, but we reckon PPI inflation ticked higher in July. The non-manufacturing gauge suggests that no fis- cal rescue has been forthcoming.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

2 Aug 2021 Underlying Chinese Inflation is More Progressed than in DMs

China's PPI inflation is at or near its peak, and CPI inflation remains relatively tame... ... But underlying inflationary pressure is more ad- vanced in China, thanks to the early recovery. More limited slack means services inflation is on a sustained uptrend.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

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