Pantheon Macroeconomics

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30 July 2021 German Inflation is now Red Hot, but Broadly as Expected

Headline inflation in the EZ likely was a touch stronger than we initially expected in July. Core and headline inflation in Germany is rocketing, mostly due to base effects...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 July 2021 EZ Equity Investors Can't Look to the Macro Data for Help in H2

The macro-fundamentals are starting to turn against equities, but the policy put is alive and well. Even if EZ equity earnings rise by 40% over the next year, as analysts...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

27 July 2021 What to Expect from the Barrage of EZ Economic Data this Week

We look for Q2 GDP growth in the EZ at 1.5% quarter-on-quarter, the same as the consensus. This week's EZ inflation reports for July are a banana-skin for forecasters; don't...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 July 2021 The Economic Upturn in the EZ Continued at the Start of Q3

The PMIs point to a sustained, and strong, expan- sion in EZ economic activity at the start of Q3. The renewed surge in virus cases is a threat to the lofty consensus Q3...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 July 2021 Welcome to a New, and Even More Dovish, ECB Rate Guidance

The ECB formally presented its new inflation target yesterday, and updated the forward guidance on rates attached to it.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 July 2021 Europe's New Green Deal is Trail- Blazing, but it's Going to Cost

Talking about a green energy transition in Europe is easy, but more often than not, actions fall short of promises, for political reasons.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 July 2021 Supply Constraints & Reopening Boost Italian & Spanish inflation

Earlier this week we delved into German and French inflation data, looking for signs of supply-side price pressures in goods prices, and a reopening bump in Covid-sensitive...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 July 2021 How Well did the EZ Economy do in the Second Quarter?

Virus cases fell throughout the second quarter, allowing EZ governments to ease restrictions and the economy to roar back to life.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 July 2021 On the Hunt for Supply Pressures, and Reopening in the EZ CPI Data

Yesterday's detailed inflation data in Germany and France were similar, at least as far as the main story goes.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 July 2021 Taking Stock of Italy's Economy in Q2; It's Good News

We last set our outlook for the Italian economy at the end of May--see here--and in this Monitor, we take stock of what has changed since. In preview; it's good news.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 July 2021 The ECB's New Inflation Target Signals Looser Policy, in Theory

The ECB sprang a surprise on markets yesterday, releasing the details of its policy review--see here--ahead of the planned announcement in September.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 July 2021 German Industry was Sluggish in H1, Blame Collapsing Auto Output

Manufacturing in Germany has stalled. Data yesterday showed that industrial production, including construction, edged lower by 0.3% month-to-month in May, matching the revised...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 July 2021 EZ Manufacturing is Being Held Back by Weakness in Autos

Weakness in the core remained a drag on euro area manufacturing midway through Q2, amid strength elsewhere.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 July 2021 The ECB Probably will Come up with a New Inflation Target in Q3

Judging by the questions we're receiving from readers, and reports in the financial news, the outcome of the ECB's strategic policy review is now starting to occupy investors'...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 July 2021 How to get a Better Sense of what is Happening in EZ Services

We recently wrote about the prospects of a reopening leap in core inflation--see here--as the restrictions are eased.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 June 2021 Eurozone Headline Inflation Fell only Marginally in June

Data yesterday revealed that inflation in Germany eased slightly at the end of Q2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 June 2021 EZ GDP Likely Rebounded Solidly in Q2, but Markets Fear Tapering

The evidence continues to support our own and consensus forecasts that the euro area economy is roaring back to life in the second quarter.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 June 2021 Moving Closer to the First Set of EU Recovery Fund Disbursements

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is currently on tour in Europe, negotiating with national governments on the final makeup of the spending plans for the...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 June 2021 A Quiet SNB, and a Guide to the EZ Inflation Data in H2

Yesterday's decision by the SNB to keep its policy rate unchanged, at -0.75%, was widely expected.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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