Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Argentina Germany

19 July 2021 EZ Core Inflation will Go Haywire in Q3; Take it With a Pinch of Salt

Friday's detailed inflation data in the EZ conformed to expectations. Headline inflation dipped by 0.1pp, to 1.9%, matching the initial estimate, while core inflation fell to...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)19th Jul 2021 00:10Eurozone

14 July 2021 On the Hunt for Supply Pressures, and Reopening in the EZ CPI Data

Yesterday's detailed inflation data in Germany and France were similar, at least as far as the main story goes.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)14th Jul 2021 00:10Eurozone

12 July 2021 Taking Stock of Italy's Economy in Q2; It's Good News

We last set our outlook for the Italian economy at the end of May--see here--and in this Monitor, we take stock of what has changed since. In preview; it's good news.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)12th Jul 2021 00:20Eurozone

9 July 2021 The ECB's New Inflation Target Signals Looser Policy, in Theory

The ECB sprang a surprise on markets yesterday, releasing the details of its policy review--see here--ahead of the planned announcement in September.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)9th Jul 2021 00:10Eurozone

8 July 2021 German Industry was Sluggish in H1, Blame Collapsing Auto Output

Manufacturing in Germany has stalled. Data yesterday showed that industrial production, including construction, edged lower by 0.3% month-to-month in May, matching the revised...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)8th Jul 2021 00:10Eurozone

7 July 2021 EZ Manufacturing is Being Held Back by Weakness in Autos

Weakness in the core remained a drag on euro area manufacturing midway through Q2, amid strength elsewhere.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)7th Jul 2021 00:10Eurozone

6 July 2021 The ECB Probably will Come up with a New Inflation Target in Q3

Judging by the questions we're receiving from readers, and reports in the financial news, the outcome of the ECB's strategic policy review is now starting to occupy investors'...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)6th Jul 2021 00:20Eurozone

1 July 2021 All Aboard for a Wild Ride in the Second Half EZ Inflation Numbers

Yesterday's advance CPI data in the Eurozone broadly confirmed our expectations.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)1st Jul 2021 00:10Eurozone

30 June 2021 Eurozone Headline Inflation Fell only Marginally in June

Data yesterday revealed that inflation in Germany eased slightly at the end of Q2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)30th Jun 2021 00:10Eurozone

28 June 2021 Don't Fear the Slowdown in EZ M1 Growth; the Trend is still Solid

Data on Friday showed that money supply growth in the Eurozone slowed further midway through Q2. Broad money, M3, rose by 8.4% year-over-year in May, easing from a 9.4% increase...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)28th Jun 2021 00:20Eurozone

24 June 2021 EZ GDP Likely Rebounded Solidly in Q2, but Markets Fear Tapering

The evidence continues to support our own and consensus forecasts that the euro area economy is roaring back to life in the second quarter.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)24th Jun 2021 00:10Eurozone

23 June 2021 Moving Closer to the First Set of EU Recovery Fund Disbursements

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is currently on tour in Europe, negotiating with national governments on the final makeup of the spending plans for the...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)23rd Jun 2021 00:10Eurozone

22 June 2021 No Clear Signal from the Polls in Germany to bet on Bund Volatility

With Mr. Biden recently installed in the Oval office, and the Conservative government in the U.K. not battling for re-election until 2024, the main sources of political risk...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)22nd Jun 2021 00:20Eurozone

16 June 2021 Ignore the April Plunge in the EZ Trade Surplus; a Rebound Beckons

Yesterday's euro area trade data from Eurostat were alarmingly poor.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)16th Jun 2021 00:10Eurozone

15 June 2021 A Closer Look at the ECB's New Forecasts; are we too Pessimistic?

In preview, we still think the central bank is setting the bar a bit too high.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)15th Jun 2021 00:20Eurozone

8 June 2021 German Manufacturing was Soft in April; Spain was Much Better

Yesterday's main economic reports point to mixed conditions in euro area manufacturing at the start of Q2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)8th Jun 2021 00:20Eurozone

7 June 2021 Don't Despair over Poor EZ Retail Sales at the Start of Q2

For forecasters, including us, pinning their hopes on a reopening-rebound in EZ Q2 GDP, chiefly thanks to rising consumers' spending, Friday's data were a slap in the face. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)7th Jun 2021 00:20Eurozone

4 June 2021 The EZ Services Sector is Now Stretching its Legs

If the PMIs are right, services activity in the Eurozone rebounded strongly midway through the second quarter, as virus restrictions were eased.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)4th Jun 2021 00:10Eurozone

3 June 2021 The Stage is Set for a Decent Rebound in Swiss GDP in Q2

In this Monitor, we are introducing our coverage of the Swiss economy, with a look at the recent Q1 GDP numbers, and an outlook for the rest of the year.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)3rd Jun 2021 00:10Eurozone

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