Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

Key Issues

15 Oct 2021 Spanish Firms Disproportionately Impacted by Surging Gas Prices

Gas prices in Europe have continued their rise since the start of the year... ...Governments are trying hard to shield consumers, but businesses will be hit harder. Our...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 Oct 2021 Core Inflation in Germany Will Rise above 3% in the Fourth Quarter

German core inflation is still rising; we think it will hit 3%-plus in Q4, before easing in January. Electricity inflation in Spain is still rocketing, threatening consumer's...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 Oct 2021 The Evergrande Fiasco and Energy Prices Will Spoil the Recovery

A weak third quarter GDP print for China is a certainty, with the economy facing multiple headwinds. Early data hint at the damage done, but September is just the start. The...

Craig BothamChina+

14 Oct 2021 How Much Fiscal Support for the French Economy Next Year?

The burden of adjustment in France's budget deficit in 2022 will fall on lower expenditures... ...But the preliminary budget looks overall growth friendly; it will be 2.0pp...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 Oct 2021 Supply Chain Disruptions are Visible, Despite Export Strength

Expectations for a Chinese export slowdown in September were confounded... ...But this was due chiefly to one-off factors, and imports showed the impact of China's...

Craig BothamChina+

13 Oct 2021 GDP Growth Forecast Down and Inflation Forecasts Up in the EZ?

We look for lower consensus growth forecasts in Q4, even as inflation forecasts advance further. Fiscal stimulus is a wildcard for 2022 GDP forecasts, but near-term risks...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Oct 2021 A Hawkish Hold, but Future Hikes Likely to be Interrupted

The BoK struck a hawkish note despite holding rates, strongly suggesting a November hike. Household debt remains the focus of policy, but there's a risk of complacency over...

Craig BothamChina+

12 Oct 2021 Spain's Government is Predicting a Growth Party in 2022; Is it Right?

The Spanish government is continuing to support the recovery next year... ...But its GDP growth forecasts, reliant on hefty in- creases in investment, seem too high to...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 Oct 2021 We're Reducing our Q3 GDP Growth Forecasts in Germany

German auto output crashed in August; we're nudging our Q3 GDP growth forecasts down, to 2.0% q/q. The Q3 plunge in German industry is clear evidence that supply-side woes are...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 Oct 2021 No Capital Outflows Yet, but Contagion is Still Spreading

No cause for concern in foreign exchange reserves data. Capital outflow pressure appears modest and re- serves sufficient, for now. Property sector stress is growing,...

Craig BothamChina+

7 Oct 2021 German Manufacturing Crashed in Q3, but it Did Better Elsewhere

German manufacturing crashed in Q3, due to weakness in autos; GDP growth downgrades ahead. Spanish industrial production fell again in August, but output in the auto sector...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Oct 2021 How to Understand and Use Inflation Expectations in the EZ

EZ inflation expectations don't predict inflation, but they're not entirely without value either. Industrial production in France rose again in August; Q3 as a whole likely was...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Oct 2021 Supply Chain Disruptions Add to Transitory Inflation Pressures

A shock return to positive territory for Tokyo CPI inflation... ...Partly driven by the BoJ's usual suspects, but with a larger contribution from goods prices. Supply chain...

Craig BothamChina+

5 Oct 2021 Inflation in Switzerland is Likely as High as it Gets

Inflation in Switzerland likely has peaked, keeping it lower than the headline HICP in the EZ... ...Currency effects will soon be a drag on headline inflation, to the SNB's...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Oct 2021 Another Month, Another Upside Surprise in the EZ Inflation Data

EZ inflation rose further in September, probably by 0.5pp to 3.5%, higher than the consensus, 3.3%. Core inflation in the EZ was lifted by gains in Italy and Germany in...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 Sept 2021 What is the Fiscal Multiplier for Government Spending in Italy

The Italian government's GDP growth forecast for next year looks too high to us. Spain's new ERTE scheme is the first of, probably many, Covid-led labour market reforms in the...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 Sept 2021 The ECB is on Team-Transitory on Rising Inflation in the EZ, for Now

Ms. Lagarde strikes a dovish tone at the ECB Forum, but sticks to the script that PEPP will end in Q1. Rate expectations have increased substantially in the EZ; we doubt the...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 Sept 2021 September Storms Cloud China's Growth Outlook

The energy crisis and Evergrande's distress prompt downgrades to our growth outlook. Energy shortages will likely have the bigger short term impact, with Evergrande a chronic...

Craig BothamChina+

28 Sept 2021 A Traffic Light or a New Grand Coalition in Germany

Germany will get a Traffic Light or a new Grand Coalition, but we don't dare bet on either outcome. Slower growth in EZ real M1 points to a further dip in the composite PMI to...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 Sept 2021 Energy Crisis will have a Greater Short-Term Impact than Evergrande

Widespread electricity rationing will drive activity down in September and October. Property is bigger long-term concern, but energy rationing will have a more immediate...

Craig BothamChina+

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Author

Global Publications Only

Filter by Date

  Quick Tag Filters
Consistently Right

Access Key Enabled Navigation

Keywords for: Key Issues

Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence