Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Key Issues

24 Sept 2020 The EZ Recovery is Now Seriously Threatened by the Virus' Return

Yesterday's advance EZ PMI data for September conformed to our expectations.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)24th Sep 2020 00:10Eurozone

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update September 23rd

In one line: The U.S. situation is deteriorating; hospitalizations jumped yesterday.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)23rd Sep 2020 10:46U.S.

22 Sept 2020 Is the ECB Considering Putting the PEPP out to Pasture

A Financial Times report over the weekend--see here--added to the speculation that the ECB is not going to lift the amount of asset purchases pledged under its Pandemic...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)22nd Sep 2020 00:10Eurozone

22 Sept 2020 What's a Plausible Path for GDP If Businesses Have to Close Again?

Our long-standing forecast for GDP to be about 5% below its pre-Covid level at the end of this year assumes that the government will not need to impose new nationwide restrictions...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)21st Sep 2020 18:00U.K.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update September 21st

In one line: U.S. Hospitalizations still falling, but could start to rise again soon.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)21st Sep 2020 12:01U.S.

21 Sept 2020 Inflation Risks in Argentina are Mounting, Despite the Benign Trend

The Argentinian economic recovery continues, from very depressed levels, and the rebound is confronting many setbacks.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)21st Sep 2020 00:20Latin America

21 Sept 2020 August will Prove to Be the High Water Mark for Retail Sales

Retailers made hay while the sun shone in August, but clouds now are looming overhead. The 0.8% month-to-month rise in retail sales volumes took them 3.3% above last year's...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)21st Sep 2020 00:10U.K.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update September 18th

An Interruption to the Downward Trend in U.S. Cases, or a Reversal?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)18th Sep 2020 13:07U.S.

18 Sept 2020 The Bank of Japan Still has Plenty of Room to Expand Covid Support

The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan yesterday kept its main settings unchanged, as widely expected. In another 8-to-1 vote, members maintained the policy balance rate and the...

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)18th Sep 2020 00:10China+

18 Sept 2020 COPOM on Hold, the "Likely End of a Long" Monetary Easing Cycle

Recent economic activity, labour market and inflation data all have surprised Brazilian policymakers' expectations, to the upside.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)18th Sep 2020 00:10Latin America

18 Sept 2020 QE to Remain the Main Monetary Policy Tool, at Least Until the Spring

The MPC surprised yesterday both with its bullish take on the economy's current health, and with the news that it will begin, in Q4, "structured engagement on the...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)17th Sep 2020 18:00U.K.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update September 16th

The decline in U.S. hospitalizations is slowing; test positivity still high.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)16th Sep 2020 11:08U.S.

16 Sept 2020 The Upturn in Redundancies is Only Just Getting Going

The latest official data continue to understate the collapse in labour demand since Covid-19.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)15th Sep 2020 18:10U.K.

15 Sept 2020 Has the EZ Reached a Ceiling for its Post-Covid-19 Rebound

The return of the virus in the Eurozone isn't what the economy needed, but we continue to think it differs from the first shock, for three key reasons.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)15th Sep 2020 00:10Eurozone

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update September 14th

U.S. Test Positivity is Stuck At 5%; Europe's Second Wave Persists

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)14th Sep 2020 11:59U.S.

14 Sept 2020 The Recovery in GDP will Continue to Decelerate Through the Autumn

GDP data for July, released on Friday, showed that the economic recovery following the Covid-19 lockdown still does not look V-shaped, even though virtually all restrictions on...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)14th Sep 2020 00:10U.K.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update September 11th

U.S. Cases Falling Again but the Positive Test Rate is Stubbornly High

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)11th Sep 2020 11:35U.S.

11 Sept 2020 The ECB Just Raised the Bar for a Boost to PEPP, Significantly

On a headline level, the ECB conformed to consensus expectations yesterday by leaving its policy stance unchanged.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)11th Sep 2020 00:10Eurozone

11 Sept 2020 The MPC will Preserve the Option of Another QE Extension in Q4

The MPC likely will steer clear of providing strong signals on the outlook for monetary policy at next week's meeting.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th Sep 2020 18:10U.K.

10 Sept 2020 Labour Market Data to Show Jobs Downturn Gathering Pace in Q3

The data calendar is so congested next week that it makes sense to preview Tuesday's labour market report early.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)9th Sep 2020 18:10U.K.

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