Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Key Issues

14 June 2021 We're Betting on a Further Fall in EZ Unemployment in H2

In any given quarter, the change in the unemployment rate can be derived by the difference between the change in employment and the change in the size of the labour force as a...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)14th Jun 2021 00:20Eurozone

14 June 2021 What Do China's Emissions Targets Mean for Policy this Year?

Last year President Xi announced a new target for China, with the importance of GDP targeting diminishing.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)14th Jun 2021 00:10China+

11 June 2021 If the ECB's New Forecasts are Right, PEPP will be Axed in Q4

The ECB conformed to our expectations yesterday, guiding markets towards unchanged and ample accommodation through Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)11th Jun 2021 00:10Eurozone

11 June 2021 Monetary Conditions Finally Look to be Stabilising

The PBoC has had its foot off the brake for most of this year so far, following tightening through the second half of 2020, culminating in its efforts to shake out speculative...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)11th Jun 2021 00:00China+

10 June 2021 We Expect a Dovish ECB today, but Difficult Decisions Loom in H2

The best way to explain the ECB's position, ahead of today's policy decision, is that the central bank has plenty of circumstantial evidence that a strong recovery has begun,...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)10th Jun 2021 00:10Eurozone

9 June 2021 Consumers will have to Step up to Deliver a Solid Q2 in the Eurozone

Data yesterday showed that the euro area economy did better than initially estimated at the start of the year, contrary to our expectations, though the main story didn't change.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)9th Jun 2021 00:10Eurozone

9 June 2021 Japan's Q1 GDP Upgrade was a Bit Disappointing Under the Surface

Japan has been a laggard in the vaccine race, with the virus keeping the economy on a weak footing into this quarter and the next.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)9th Jun 2021 00:00China+

8 June 2021 German Manufacturing was Soft in April; Spain was Much Better

Yesterday's main economic reports point to mixed conditions in euro area manufacturing at the start of Q2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)8th Jun 2021 00:20Eurozone

8 June 2021 China is Exposed to a Double Whammy Against Exports

It's now widely appreciated that Chinese exports are exposed, as the global economy switches lanes to services, from manufacturing.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)8th Jun 2021 00:10China+

7 June 2021 Don't Despair over Poor EZ Retail Sales at the Start of Q2

For forecasters, including us, pinning their hopes on a reopening-rebound in EZ Q2 GDP, chiefly thanks to rising consumers' spending, Friday's data were a slap in the face. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)7th Jun 2021 00:20Eurozone

7 June 2021 Having Your Cake and Eating it as the Household Savings Rate Falls

China is at a critical point in the recovery. The economy is switching lanes from the supply-led, export-supported manufacturing surge to consumer and services drivers.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)7th Jun 2021 00:10China+

4 June 2021 The EZ Services Sector is Now Stretching its Legs

If the PMIs are right, services activity in the Eurozone rebounded strongly midway through the second quarter, as virus restrictions were eased.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)4th Jun 2021 00:10Eurozone

4 June 2021 Did the U.S. Stimulus Give the Trade Cycle a Final Boost in May

Chinese exports have recovered much more quickly than elsewhere, thanks in large part to the still strong command element of the economy. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)4th Jun 2021 00:00China+

3 June 2021 The Stage is Set for a Decent Rebound in Swiss GDP in Q2

In this Monitor, we are introducing our coverage of the Swiss economy, with a look at the recent Q1 GDP numbers, and an outlook for the rest of the year.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)3rd Jun 2021 00:10Eurozone

2 June 2021 The Rise in EZ Headline Inflation is Over, for a Brief Moment

Inflation in the euro area increased further midway through the second quarter. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)2nd Jun 2021 00:10Eurozone

2 June 2021 Bottlenecks are Biting in the North East Asian Supply Chain

China's PMIs strongly suggest that supply-side bottlenecks, if anything, are worsening.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)2nd Jun 2021 00:00China+

1 June 2021 EZ Consumers' Spending, Ex-Services, Softened at the Start of Q2

Friday's headline data in the French economy weren't pretty. First, the third and final Q1 GDP estimate was revised down by 0.5pp, to -0.1% quarter-on-quarter, indicating that the...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)1st Jun 2021 00:20Eurozone

1 June 2021 The PMI Suggests PPI Inflation Likely Jumped Again in May

China's official manufacturing PMI was little changed at 51.0 in May, after April's 51.1, with the index remaining oblivious to U.S. stimulus efforts and in recent months.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)1st Jun 2021 00:10China+

28 May 2021 Italian Economy is Roaring Back to Life, but We're Still Cautious

Italian Economy is Roaring Back to Life, but We're Still Cautious

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)28th May 2021 00:10Eurozone

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