Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Key Issues

Global Economic Monitor

2 Aug 2021 Punchy Growth in the Periphery to Push EZ Forecasts Higher in Q3

EZ GDP data beat expectations in Q2, which will drive upward revisions to 2021 forecasts. We now expect full-year GDP growth in the Euro- zone of 5.0% in 2021, up from...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 Aug 2021 Underlying Chinese Inflation is More Progressed than in DMs

China's PPI inflation is at or near its peak, and CPI inflation remains relatively tame... ... But underlying inflationary pressure is more ad- vanced in China,...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

30 July 2021 German Inflation is now Red Hot, but Broadly as Expected

Headline inflation in the EZ likely was a touch stronger than we initially expected in July. Core and headline inflation in Germany is rocketing, mostly due to base effects...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 July 2021 EZ Equity Investors Can't Look to the Macro Data for Help in H2

The macro-fundamentals are starting to turn against equities, but the policy put is alive and well. Even if EZ equity earnings rise by 40% over the next year, as analysts...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 July 2021 The PMIs Should Offer Some Signs of Stabilisation this Month

Q2 CPI inflation exceeded the MPC's one-quarter ahead forecast by the most for 13 years... ...But only two members have implied they will vote to end QE; pushback from the...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

28 July 2021 A Sneak-Peek at the Likely Pace of EZ GDP growth in H1 2022

Robust M1 growth points to solid GDP growth in the Eurozone, once the dust settles from reopening. Loan growth is slowing, but that's mainly due to base effects; the underlying...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

27 July 2021 What to Expect from the Barrage of EZ Economic Data this Week

We look for Q2 GDP growth in the EZ at 1.5% quarter-on-quarter, the same as the consensus. This week's EZ inflation reports for July are a banana-skin for forecasters; don't...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 July 2021 The Economic Upturn in the EZ Continued at the Start of Q3

The PMIs point to a sustained, and strong, expan- sion in EZ economic activity at the start of Q3. The renewed surge in virus cases is a threat to the lofty consensus Q3...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 July 2021 Savings Data Suggest Households are Loosening the Purse Strings

Our analysis reveals that GDP growth in the first half may have been significantly stronger than billed. In particular, the household savings rate dropped sharply, back to...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

23 July 2021 Welcome to a New, and Even More Dovish, ECB Rate Guidance

The ECB formally presented its new inflation target yesterday, and updated the forward guidance on rates attached to it.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 July 2021 PBoC RRR Cut versus Fed Taper is a False Dichotomy

From all the PBoC's vast toolbox, the most important thing right now is the clues to be gleaned over intentions on rates from open market operations.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

22 July 2021 All Change at the ECB Today as It Presents Its New Inflation Target

Today's ECB meeting was supposed to be a snoozer, in which the council goes on holiday with the message that it will hold off making any major decisions on the pace of...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 July 2021 Sticking our Neck out With a Call on EZ Net Trade in 2021 and 2022

This is not, on the face of it, the best time to take a step back and look at the prospects for net exports in the Eurozone in a post-Covid world.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 July 2021 Europe's New Green Deal is Trail- Blazing, but it's Going to Cost

Talking about a green energy transition in Europe is easy, but more often than not, actions fall short of promises, for political reasons.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 July 2021 BoJ Playing it Down, but Green Fund Provisioning is Significant

Governor Kuroda was managing expectations about the new green fund-provisioning scheme in the press conference. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

19 July 2021 EZ Core Inflation will Go Haywire in Q3; Take it With a Pinch of Salt

Friday's detailed inflation data in the EZ conformed to expectations. Headline inflation dipped by 0.1pp, to 1.9%, matching the initial estimate, while core inflation fell to...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 July 2021 Supply Constraints & Reopening Boost Italian & Spanish inflation

Earlier this week we delved into German and French inflation data, looking for signs of supply-side price pressures in goods prices, and a reopening bump in Covid-sensitive...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 July 2021 Data are Conflicting, but we Think China's Growth Slowed in Q2

Sometimes when you put together the Chinese data, it feels like you are drawing from multiple jigsaw puzzles, each with pieces missing.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

15 July 2021 How Well did the EZ Economy do in the Second Quarter?

Virus cases fell throughout the second quarter, allowing EZ governments to ease restrictions and the economy to roar back to life.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 July 2021 Supporting Green Finance Could Become a Major BoJ Policy Plank

The BoJ's policy meeting on Friday is set to provide an outline of the fund-provisioning scheme, announced at its June meeting, to support green finance.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

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