Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Key Issues

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)

5 Jan 2021 Caixin PMI Implies China's Small Firms Due a Further Correction

Caixin PMI Implies China's Small Firms Due a Further Correction

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)24th Dec 2020 12:34China+

4 Jan 2021 China PMI Gives Early Warning on Producer and Services Prices

China's official manufacturing PMI was little changed, at 51.9 in December, compared with 52.1 in November.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)24th Dec 2020 12:32China+

24 Dec 2020 Is China Santa or the Grinch in the Global Inflation Outlook

China plays a pivotal role in the global inflation outlook.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)24th Dec 2020 00:10China+

23 Dec 2020 The Covid State of Play in Asia... Good for EMs, Bad for DMs

For some of Asia's giants, this year's Covid-19 woes are unlikely to get any better when the clock strikes 12 on New Year's Eve.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)23rd Dec 2020 00:10China+

22 Dec 2020 The PBoC is Comfortable with its Policy Settings

The PBoC is rounding out 2020 remaining neutral in interbank markets.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)22nd Dec 2020 00:10China+

21 Dec 2020 The BoJ Extends its Covid Support, the "Review" Won't Change Much

The Bank of Japan kept its main policy settings unchanged on Friday, as widely expected. But the Policy Board voted unanimously to extend the duration of the Bank's Covid-19...

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)21st Dec 2020 00:10China+

18 Dec 2020 An All-Encompassing Period of Disinflation is Afoot in India

CPI inflation in India slowed faster than expected in November, dropping to 6.9%, from the nine-month high of 7.6% in October.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)18th Dec 2020 00:10China+

16 Dec 2020 China's Q4 Recovery has Wavered Only Slightly, Thanks to Consumers

Industrial production growth in China has peaked, notwithstanding the likely spike in Q1, when the base effects kick in from the Covid- induced shutdowns earlier this year.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)15th Dec 2020 22:20China+

15 Dec 2020 Japan's Punchy Tankan Likely Overstates the Actual Q4 Recovery

Business sentiment in Japan continues to recover in the current quarter, with the main Tankan indices surprising to the upside.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)15th Dec 2020 00:10China+

14 Dec 2020 Where are the Potential Surprises in Asia at the Turn of the Year?

As we head into 2021, a number of potential surprises--both positive and negative--could throw our full-year forecasts for Asia out of whack early in the year.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)14th Dec 2020 00:10China+

11 Dec 2020 China's Money Data Show no Real Cracks in the 2021 Recovery Story

China's latest money and credit data continue to reassure the PBoC that its job to secure the economy's recovery is done.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)11th Dec 2020 00:10China+

10 Dec 2020 The PBoC Never Cared much about Food Prices... this Won't Change

CPI inflation in China has fallen below zero for the first time since 2009, but we highly doubt that this will spook the PBoC.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)10th Dec 2020 00:10China+

9 Dec 2020 Expect Japanese Consumption to Disappoint the Most this Quarter

Japan's GDP rebound in Q3 was upgraded to 5.3% quarter-on-quarter, from 5.0% in the preliminary report, representing a marginally sharper recovery from the revised 8.3%...

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)9th Dec 2020 00:10China+

8 Dec 2020 Read this Before You get Excited About China's Historic Surplus

China's trade surplus rocketed unexpectedly in November, flying to an all-time high of $75.4B.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)8th Dec 2020 00:10China+

7 Dec 2020 Did the RBI Just Pour Cold Water on a February Rate Cut?

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India voted unanimously to keep the benchmark repo rate unchanged, at 4.00%, for a third straight meeting, as widely expected.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)7th Dec 2020 00:10China+

3 Dec 2020 Korea's Export Recovery is Back on Track, but Q4 will be More Muted

The recovery in Korean exports resumed in September, with shipments rising by 4.0% year- over-year, a turnaround from the 3.8% decline in the previous month.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)3rd Dec 2020 00:10China+

2 Dec 2020 China's Sturdy PMI Numbers for Q4, so far, Call for a GDP Upgrade

Chinese factories clearly had a strong month in November, looking at the complete manufacturing PMI data.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)2nd Dec 2020 00:10China+

1 Dec 2020 More Questions than Answers after India's Hefty Q3 GDP Rebound

India's GDP report for the third quarter surprised to the upside, with the year-over-year contraction moderating significantly to -7.5%, from -23.9% in Q2.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)1st Dec 2020 00:10China+

30 Nov 2020 Enjoy the Roller-Coaster in Chinese Industrial Profits, It Won't Last Long

China's industrial profits data for October are a taste of what the silly season for economic data will look like for the first quarter of 2021.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)30th Nov 2020 00:10China+

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