Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Key Issues

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)

26 Jan 2021 Keep the Faith in a Q2 Rebound; Virus Trends Remain Encouraging

Keep the Faith in a Q2 Rebound; Virus Trends Remain Encouraging

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)25th Jan 2021 18:00U.K.

18 Jan 2021 November GDP Shows More Firms are Becoming Lockdown-Immune

November GDP Shows More Firms are Becoming Lockdown-Immune

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)18th Jan 2021 00:00U.K.

14 Jan 2021 The Lockdown is Working; No Need for Tougher Restrictions

The Lockdown is Working; No Need for Tougher Restrictions

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)13th Jan 2021 18:00U.K.

7 Jan 2021 Will the Post-Brexit Deal Recovery in U.K. Equity Prices Gather Steam?

The last-minute trade deal signed with the E.U. has put a spring in the s tep of U.K. equities.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)6th Jan 2021 18:00U.K.

6 Jan 2021 Spring Recovery Contingent on the Pace of Vaccine Rollout

The downturn in economic activity in Q1 is set to be even deeper than we first thought at the start of this week, following the new lockdown announced on Monday...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)5th Jan 2021 18:00U.K.

4 Jan 2021 January GDP Will Sink Below November's Lockdown Level

The emergence of a new strain of Covid-19— B117—which is about 70% more infectious than those before it, has lowered the level of economic activity that is...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)24th Dec 2020 12:30U.K.

16 Dec 2020 Still At Least Six Months Until the Labour Market Turns the Corner

Labour market conditions continued to deteriorate at a gradual pace in the autumn, despite uncertainty surrounding the future of government policies.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)15th Dec 2020 22:10U.K.

11 Dec 2020 GDP won't Return to October's Level until March

October's GDP figures conformed to our expectation that the recovery hit a wall as the second wave of Covid-19 developed.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th Dec 2020 18:10U.K.

10 Dec 2020 The Furlough Extension Likely didn't Prevent Further Job Losses

Next week's labour market figures look set to show that the downturn in employment regained momentum in November.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)9th Dec 2020 18:10U.K.

9 Dec 2020 GDP Likely to Dip Again in January, in Response to a Third Covid Wave

Near-real-time data suggest that economic activity has not fully recovered to October's level after England's lockdown ended on December 2.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)8th Dec 2020 18:10U.K.

7 Dec 2020 GDP Likely Held Steady in October, as the Second Wave Advanced

We expect October's GDP report, released on Thursday, to show that month-to-month growth slowed to about zero, from 1.1% in September, as consumers retreated to their homes as...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)7th Dec 2020 00:10U.K.

25 Nov 2020 Herd Immunity Is a Realistic Possibility by May

News from AstraZeneca that its vaccine is 70% effective at preventing Covid-19 symptoms leaves leaked government plans for a rapid immunisation programme looking realistic.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)24th Nov 2020 18:10U.K.

12 Nov 2020 The Boost to GDP from Post-Covid Dis-Saving will be Slow Burning

Positive news from Pfizer on the efficacy of its candidate vaccine has brought the post-Covid world into closer focus.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)11th Nov 2020 18:10U.K.

11 Nov 2020 Unemployment Will Peak at a Lower Rate than After the Last Recession

The labour market has continued to hold up better than we and most other forecasters feared at the start of the pandemic.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th Nov 2020 19:10U.K.

6 Nov 2020 The MPC Still Sees a Case for More Stimulus, Despite its QE Salvo

Markets interpreted the MPC's decision yesterday to buy £150B more gilts next year, together with its latest forecasts and comments in the minutes, as a sign that the...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)5th Nov 2020 18:10U.K.

5 Nov 2020 October's PMIs Add to Signs of Pre-Lockdown Stagnation

The downward revision to October's services PMI to 51.4, from the 52.3 flash estimate, adds to evidence that the recovery has ground to a halt, with GDP likely still about 8%...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)4th Nov 2020 18:10U.K.

3 Nov 2020 Covid will be Too Prevalent in December to Return to October's Lax Rules

It is highly unlikely that Britain will be able to return at the start of December to the light-touch restrictions that failed meaningfully to curb the transmission of Covid-19...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)2nd Nov 2020 18:10U.K.

2 Nov 2020 QE Extension Now Very Likely this Week, Given the Second Lockdown

The case for the MPC to extend its asset purchase programme into 2021 is compelling. The mere 2.1% month-to-month rise in GDP in August has left the Committee's September...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)2nd Nov 2020 00:10U.K.

12 Oct 2020 The Recovery was Stalling Even Before the Second Wave

August's GDP report represented a fatal blow to the V-shaped recovery thesis.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)11th Oct 2020 00:10U.K.

7 Oct 2020 Hospitality will Have to Shut Again, If Covid's Growth Doesn't Slow Soon

The government will have no choice but to introduce fresh nationwide curbs on economic activity before long, if the current steep upward trend in Covid-19 infections is sustained.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)6th Oct 2020 18:10U.K.

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