Global Datanote: CPI, India, April

• In one line: More food disinflation to come in May; the 2025 consensus remains far too high.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Bank of Thailand Decision

• In one line: Compelled by the US’ tariff war, and allowed for by a resumption of sub-1% inflation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Industrial Production, India, March

• In one line: Capping off an unremarkable Q1.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Decision

• In one line: Easing back on; three more cuts to go, from our vantage point.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Reserve Bank of India Decision

• In one line: Expect at least two more consecutive 25bp cuts.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision

• In one line: Keeping its powder dry, but we’re not quite sure why.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: February CPI & January IP, India

• In one line: Food disinflation strikes again; consumer non-durables IP stages a partial rebound.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Bank of Thailand Decision

• In one line: Expect one more—final—cut in Q2, after today’s surprise reduction.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision

• In one line: Patience is a virtue, in this climate.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Decision

• In one line: This surprise pause won’t last long.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: January CPI & December IP, India

• In one line: Setting the stage for an immediate follow-up rate cut in April; consumer goods output go MIA to close off 2024.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Reserve Bank of India Decision

• In one line: The first cut is finally here; expect at least one more by mid-year.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision

• In one line: A genuine surprise; at least three more cuts this year.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: CPI, India, December

• In one line: Carpet being rolled out for a February rate cut.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Industrial Production, India, November

• In one line: A credible pop in growth, Diwali noise aside.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Decision

• In one line: 75bp down; 100bp more—at minimum—in 2025.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision

• In one line: An anti-climactic end to the year.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Bank of Thailand Decision

• In one line: A pause that will probably hold for the first few meetings in 2025.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Nov. CPI & Oct. IP, India

In one line: No major surprises; red carpet being relaid for rate cuts.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global