- In one line: Falling inflation raises expectations of an interest rate cut this month.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Global
In one line: Ringgit weakness worries BNM, but its opting for non-rate measures.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Global
In one line: One for the hawks; slowdown easing quicker than previously thought and price intentions rise.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
- U.S. - Job growth is set to slow in spring, and cyclical job growth could stop
- EUROZONE - Services inflation too hot for an ECB rate cut in April; June it is then
- U.K.- Forecast Review: Sticky wage growth makes MPC cautious to cut
- CHINA+ - China’s Lunar New Year holiday-spending splurge won’t last
- EM ASIA - 8% growth in India unsustainable, with consumption still lacking
- LATAM - Brazil’s economy stagnates in H2; bold rate cuts still needed
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Is the door now shut on an April cut? Probably.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Falling output in France and Germany is holding back the recovery.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: Blame non-core factors for the February bounce.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Thank the labour market—a lagging indicator—for the six-month high.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- U.S. - Q: Where is the AI boom in the GDP numbers? A: Fast approaching
- EUROZONE- Inflation to wobble around Easter; PMI implies recovery still coming
- U.K.- £20B package of tax cuts coming, despite fragile public finances
- CHINA+ - BoK edging towards a rate cut; Q3 still most likely timing
- EM ASIA - Chickens have come home to roost in Thai GDP; what an abysmal Q4
- LATAM - Banxico to act on further evidence of Mexico’s slowdown and disinflation
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Still consistent with GDP growth exceeding the MPC’s forecast, and a very gradual slowing in services CPI inflation.
Samuel TombsGlobal
In one line: Core inflation remains on track for 2% by summer, but beware Easter effects in March and April.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Weakness in Germany holds back the recovery.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
- U.S. - Most of last week’s numbers tell us little about trends, or the outlook
- EUROZONE- Is the Eurozone falling behind the US on productivity, again?
- U.K.- Underlying Services Price Rises Still Slowing, Bolstering Rate Cut Hopes
- CHINA+ - China’s big five-year LPR cut signals focus on boosting home demand
- EM ASIA - Subianto’s decisive victory a short-term positive for continuity
- LATAM - December’s IBC-Br confirms activity in Brazil ended Q4 on a strong note
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: A poor end to the year, but the details are less grim than the headline.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Global
- In one line: It won’t be long before cuts enter the fray.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- U.S. - Fiscal policy is likely to be a headwind for growth this year
- EUROZONE- Up close and personal with the seasonally adjusted EZ HICP data
- U.K.- Services CPI inflation likely rose above the MPC’s forecast in January
- CHINA+ - Chinese pricing trends signal weak activity; ignore the holiday noise
- EM ASIA - Vehicle sales boost to Singaporean retail sales set to unwind in January
- LATAM - Finally, Banxico explicitly signals rate cuts; normalisation to start in March
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: Still waiting on the onion price correction to show in CPI; the trend in IP growth is clearly one of moderation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
