- US - April’s payrolls likely mark the start of a shift to much weaker trend
- EUROZONE - Still three more SNB cuts this year, despite rising inflation in April
- UK - MPC Preview: set to signal more cuts than the market expects
- CHINA+ - China’s broadening services recovery will go only so far
- EM ASIA - Taiwan’s Q1 GDP as good as it’ll likely get in 2024
- LATAM - Mexico’s GDP slowing amid macro concerns and policy dilemma
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line : Grim, but the reality on the ground is likely better.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: The core is still drifting lower, but slowly does it.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - Does Chair Powell still see no signs of cracks in the labor market?
- EUROZONE - Higher GDP won’t impede first rate cut in June, as core inflation falls
- UK- Forecast Review: strong growth and stubborn services
- CHINA+ - BoJ stands fast, refusing to bow to currency-market pressure
- EM ASIA - A strong—but frankly foolish—policy response from BI
- LATAM - Mexico to hold rates amid inflation surprise and economic rebound
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Slowing incomes and a rising saving rate threaten consumption
- EUROZONE - A decade covering the EZ; what have we learnt, and what’s next?
- UK - Inflation surprise cannot be dismissed as Easter volaility
- CHINA+ - China begins to flesh out its consumer goods trade-in plan
- EM ASIA - Malaysian manufacturing growth will only pick up further from Q1
- LATAM - Brazil’s economy starts 2024 on a solid footing, but challenges loom
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Great, but can the services PMI be trusted?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Decent, but exclusively due to strength in services
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Core inflation will fall further in coming months, but rising oil prices is a threat to the headline.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- US The core PCE deflator for March likely will scrape in just below 0.3%
- Eurozone Hunting for early Easter effects in the German and French CPIs
- UK Bernanke Review a missed opportunity for the BoE
- China+ China begins to flesh out its consumer goods trade-in plan
- EM Asia Singaporean manufacturing on a gradual recovery path, at best
- LATAM Broadening disinflation paves way for bold COPOM rate cut in May
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: The ECB will cut in June, barring a significant shift in its Q2 forecasts.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A dovish hold—as expected—with a clear signal of a June cut.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Daily Monitor
- U.S. - No softening yet in job growth, but Q2 likely will be very different
- EUROZONE - All set for a dovish hold by the ECB this week; rates will be cut in June
U.K.- Forecast Review: MPC has the confidence to cut, gradually
- CHINA+ - BoK likely to sit tight until Q3, mindful of rising cost pressures
- EM ASIA - Singaporean retail sales growth spikes in February on festive demand
- LATAM - Will Brazil’s industrial sector improve after a poor start to 2024?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- U.S. - Core PCE back on track following the January jump
- EUROZONE - EZ inflation likely fell to just over 2% in March; what now, ECB?
- U.K. - House prices to rise 4% in 2024 as confidence returns
- CHINA+ - China’s residential property market still festering; no big policy shift yet
- EM ASIA - Firmer external demand should power up Singapore’s Q1 GDP
- LATAM - Disinflation continues in Brazil, despite food-related pressures
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- U.S. - Manufacturing output is stabilising, but a real rebound remains distant
- EUROZONE - How will the ECB deal with inflationary fiscal tightening?
- U.K. - How fast and how far can the MPC cut interest rates?
- CHINA+ - Japan’s wage-price spiral still in its infancy; BoJ admits it moved early
- EM ASIA - CBC hikes to nip the impact of higher electricity tariffs in the bud
- LATAM - Banxico finally joins the LatAm easing party, but with caution
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Lifted by strong momentum in Southern Europe.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Better, but likely not enough to prevent another decline in GDP in Q1.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- U.S. - The wall between the Fed and the private sector is gone; rates now hurt
- EUROZONE - How resilient is the consensus position on the ECB?
- U.K. - No trigger for change by the MPC; rate cuts still a few months away
- CHINA+ - China’s credit data point to a dull economy; policy uplift yet to come
- EM ASIA - Raising our 2024 CPI forecast for India, and delaying the first RBI cut
- LATAM - Chile’s recovery to continue, along with robust external accounts
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
