Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

oil Germany

16 May 2022 Is it Safe for Investors to Start Buying Eurozone Equities?

The medium-term outlook for EZ equities has improved significantly in the past 12 months...

...But earnings expectations have to fall further in the near term, weighing on prices over the summer.

EZ manufacturing will slow sharply in Q2; core inflation pressures in France have intensified.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 May 2022 The EZ Primary Budget will Stay in the Red, but the Debt Ratio will Fall

The euro area’s primary budget balance swung to a significant deficit during the pandemic.

We think the primary deficit will narrow through 2024, but the balance will remain in the red.

Net interest costs will rise, but we think the debt-to-GDP ratio will fall, due to robust nominal growth.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, April 2022

 In one line: Core and food inflation climbed; energy inflation fell, a bit.  

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ZEW, Germany, May 2022

In one line: An upside surprise, but threats still loom.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 May Germany will Enter Recession in the Second Half of the Year

We still think German GDP growth will pick up a bit in Q2, as services activity improves.

But the economy probably will fall into recession in the second half of the year.

We now see full-year growth in 2022 at just 1.5-to-1.6%, with the same pace likely in 2023.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Germany, March 2022

In one line: Ugly; production did well in Q1, but it will fall sharply in Q2. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, March 2022

In one line: Grim; brace for a big downside surprise in production tomorrow. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Germany, March 2022

In one line: Stung by a collapse in exports to Russia; imports are still rising sharply. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 May 2022 Will the EZ Labour Market Take Stagflation in its Stride?

EZ unemployment was still falling by the end of Q1, defying the initial shock over the war in Ukraine.

The rate of improvement in the EZ labour market is now slowing, but it won’t stall.

Discretionary spending on goods in Germany is under pressure from higher inflation.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 May 2022 The ECB will Find it Hard to Justify QE Past Q3, even if Growth Slows

Inflation rose again in April, and the risk is that it will creep even higher as price increases broaden.

Energy inflation should continue to fall, but will remain elevated through Q2, at least.

The ECB will have to lift its inflation forecasts in June before starting to hike rates, probably in September.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Germany & Italy, Q1 2022

In one line: Germany avoids recession; Italian economy contracts on the back of a fall in net trade.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 Apr 2022 Is this the Start of a Sustained Fall in Energy Inflation? We Think So

The electricity price cap in Spain means energy inflation there will fall further than previously thought.

German food and core inflation surprised to the upside in April, offsetting the fall in energy inflation.

Today's EZ release will show a smaller fall than we previously forecast; to 7.0% from 7.4% in March.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, April 2022

In one line: Another rise, despite a confirmed fall in energy inflation.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

27 Apr 2022 Rise in PPI Inflation a Risk, but Not a Sign of Things to Come for CPI

EZ producer output price inflation has been surging recently, on the back of higher energy prices.

All signs point to a fall in the rate in the coming months, which would weigh on the CPI headline.

We concede, though, that the risks to this call are to the upside, and largely related to energy.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 Apr 2022 The EZ Budget Deficit will Fall in 2022, but by Less than in 2021

The fall in the EZ budget deficit slowed in Q4, as governments ramped up fiscal support again.

We look for a smaller fall in the budget deficit this year than last, despite strong automatic stabilisers.

France’s electorate voted to maintain the status quo, but low turnout means Macron cannot rest easy yet.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: IFO, Germany, April

In one line:  Better than expected but still weak. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 Apr 2022 Services Propels the EZ Economy into Q2 on a Solid Footing

EZ economic activity accelerated heading into the second quarter...

...All thanks to a pick-up in services activity; manufacturing nearly stalled, as German output fell.

We expect GDP growth to accelerate in Q2, barring an immediate embargo on Russian energy imports.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, April 2022

In one line: A drop in manufacturing output is dragging on activity heading into Q2. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Author

Global Publications Only

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: Eurozone Documents

Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence