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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

oil

11 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor Europe is Still Importing Russian Energy, but the Share is Falling

  • EZ imports of Russian oil and gas have dropped, but they remain well above zero...
  • ...The EU has made up more of the shortfall left by Russian energy in oil than in gas.
  • Filling gas storages next year will come at a higher price, especially if activity in Asia rebounds.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ Industrial Output Struggled in Q3, Despite a Decent August

  • EZ industrial production rose strongly in August, but we still think output fell over Q3 as a whole.
  • Current levels of oil and gas prices mean that Euro- zone energy inflation will soon fall sharply.
  • Spreads between yields in Italy and Germany are nearing levels that the ECB will struggle to ignore.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor The EZ Current Account Crashed at the Start of the Third Quarter

  • The Eurozone’s current account swung to a big deficit in July, playing catch-up with Eurostat’s data.
  • Currency weakness is still mainly increasing the cost of imports; but exports will benefit, eventually.
  • Portfolio in-and outflows are collapsing, and we think this trend has further to run.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor We Still Look for 75bp in October as Core Inflation Rises, Again

  • A further leap in core inflation in September will push the ECB to deliver another 75bp hike next month.
  • Energy inflation is now falling, slightly, but it won’t prevent the headline from rising again in September.
  • Disinflation in oil products is accelerating, but gas and electricity prices still have further to rise.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor Europe Faces Difficult Trade-Offs on Energy as Winter Approaches

  • The EU proposes further windfall taxes and energy saving to get through winter.
  • Brussels is also mulling big reforms of electricity markets, but likely after Christmas.
  • Delinking gas and electricity prices in the EU would risk outright supply shortages during peak demand.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor The End of Russian Gas Flows is Pushing the EZ into Recession

  • The surge in gas prices adds to our conviction that inflation will remain high, despite a hit to EZ activity.
  • A probable EZ recession is weighing heavily on the outlook for Switzerland’s economy in H2.
  • EZ investor sentiment tumbled in September; it will sour further as the ECB continues to hike.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor A New Record in the EZ Core CPI Signals a 75bp Hike Next Week

  • When the facts change, so do our forecasts; we now think the ECB will hike by 75bp next week.
  • Headline inflation in the Eurozone could hit 10% in September, with core inflation at 4.5%.
  • Core goods inflation is rocketing, and it likely will remain higher than implied by surveys, for a while.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

31 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor The ECB is Priming Markets for a Series of 50bp Rate Hikes

  • We now think the ECB will lift rates by 50bp three times this year, but still expect a pause in H1-23.
  • Today's EZ inflation data will offer little relief for markets recently stung by hawkish ECB comments.
  • Surveyed inflation expectations are falling, in line with the idea of a reduced tightening pace in 2023.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor Ms. Schnabel Sends a Clear Signal of a 50bp Hike in September

Eurozone inflation hit a new record in July, and it will rise to more than 9% by September.

Ms. Schnabel all but confirms that the ECB will hike its deposit and refi rates by 50bp in September.

Construction in the EZ is rolling over after a strong start to the year; more weakness is likely in Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor The EZ will Not Steer Clear of Recession, Even if Imports Fall

The EZ goods trade deficit widened again at the end of Q2 as imports rose and exports fell.

Imports should fall soon, but exports are also likely to soften as GDP growth in key trade partners slows.

Net trade will not prevent the incoming recession, exacerbating the impact from falling consumption.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ Manufacturing did Well in Q2, but it will Slow in Q3 and Q4

Industrial output rose in Q2, but leading indicators still point to a difficult H2.

Core inflation in France was still soaring at the start of Q3; the HICP rate could hit 5% by December.

We’re lifting our EZ inflation forecasts; we see no relief for the ECB in the next few months.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor Core Inflation in the EZ will Remain "Undesirably High" for a While

We now see core HICP inflation in Germany rising to just over 4% by September.

Core inflation in Italy is still rising; we see the HICP rate climbing to 4.5% in the next few months.

If yesterday’s softer U.S. CPI data is the start of a trend, EURUSD likely won’t hit parity by September.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor Are the Largest EZ Economies Already Rationing Energy

We now think it’s likely that the EU manages to fill its gas storage levels to the target 80% by November.

Storage will be drained more this winter than in the past, given lower flows, even assuming no cold snap.

This is despite rationing, which we doubt can be avoided, and will push the EZ into recession by Q4.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor Swiss Inflation will Peak in August; will Spanish GDP Slow in Q3?

We think Swiss inflation will peak in August; the September reading will be accompanied by a fall in CHF.

Survey data suggest that the risks to our Q3 GDP call for Spain are to the downside...

...Industry won’t dodge the slowdown elsewhere, but our forecast will come down if tourism data turn.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 July 2022 EZ Monitor German core HICP inflation is still rising; it will peak in September

HICP core inflation in Germany rose further in July; it will peak in September, at just under 4%.

Energy inflation in Germany is now falling, but upside risks in gas and electricity are still substantial.

ESI sank in July, adding to the evidence of a significant slowdown in the EZ economy.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

27 July 2022 EZ Monitor This Week's Data will Set the Scene for the Incoming Recession

Inflation likely remained hot in July as a rise in food inflation and the core rate offset a falling energy rate. 

GDP data will paint a picture of a weak EZ economy ahead of a probable recession in H2.

We pencilled-in a contraction in Germany, but a pick-up in growth in each of the rest of the big four.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 July 2022 Is This the Bottom for the EZ Trade Deficit? We Think So

The EZ trade deficit narrowed in May, helped by a 4.8% month-to-month leap in exports.

The cost of EZ energy imports likely will rise further, but volumes could fall as Russia cuts off the gas.

Imports from China were still soaring in Q2, but we think they will cool soon.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 July 2022 When will Swiss Inflation Start to Fall? August is a Good Bet

All signs point to a drop in Swiss imported inflation; weaker growth will weigh on domestic prices.

Calling the peak in the headline rate is fraught with difficulty; our best bet is August.

A snap election may still be avoided, despite Italy’s Prime Minister Draghi’s resignation.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 July 2022 Taking Stock of the Energy Situation in Europe, Again

Gas prices likely will rise further as markets come around to the idea of sustained Russian supply cuts.

The weaker euro will keep energy inflation elevated, despite the recent fall in oil prices.

A price cap on Russian oil will be difficult for the West to enforce in practice.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 July 2022 EURUSD is about to Hit Parity, and We See Little Reason to Buy

EURUSD is closing in on parity and it won’t stop falling there; don’t buy the dip yet.

We think French GDP rose by 0.4-to-0.5% q/q in Q2, better than the INSEE estimate...

...But we are less optimistic than the statistical office on H2; we see growth of just 0.1% in Q3 and Q4.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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