Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Eurozone inflation hit a new record in July, and it will rise to more than 9% by September.
Ms. Schnabel all but confirms that the ECB will hike its deposit and refi rates by 50bp in September.
Construction in the EZ is rolling over after a strong start to the year; more weakness is likely in Q3.
The EZ goods trade deficit widened again at the end of Q2 as imports rose and exports fell.
Imports should fall soon, but exports are also likely to soften as GDP growth in key trade partners slows.
Net trade will not prevent the incoming recession, exacerbating the impact from falling consumption.
Industrial output rose in Q2, but leading indicators still point to a difficult H2.
Core inflation in France was still soaring at the start of Q3; the HICP rate could hit 5% by December.
We’re lifting our EZ inflation forecasts; we see no relief for the ECB in the next few months.
We now see core HICP inflation in Germany rising to just over 4% by September.
Core inflation in Italy is still rising; we see the HICP rate climbing to 4.5% in the next few months.
If yesterday’s softer U.S. CPI data is the start of a trend, EURUSD likely won’t hit parity by September.
We now think it’s likely that the EU manages to fill its gas storage levels to the target 80% by November.
Storage will be drained more this winter than in the past, given lower flows, even assuming no cold snap.
This is despite rationing, which we doubt can be avoided, and will push the EZ into recession by Q4.
We think Swiss inflation will peak in August; the September reading will be accompanied by a fall in CHF.
Survey data suggest that the risks to our Q3 GDP call for Spain are to the downside...
...Industry won’t dodge the slowdown elsewhere, but our forecast will come down if tourism data turn.
HICP core inflation in Germany rose further in July; it will peak in September, at just under 4%.
Energy inflation in Germany is now falling, but upside risks in gas and electricity are still substantial.
ESI sank in July, adding to the evidence of a significant slowdown in the EZ economy.
Inflation likely remained hot in July as a rise in food inflation and the core rate offset a falling energy rate.
GDP data will paint a picture of a weak EZ economy ahead of a probable recession in H2.
We pencilled-in a contraction in Germany, but a pick-up in growth in each of the rest of the big four.
The EZ trade deficit narrowed in May, helped by a 4.8% month-to-month leap in exports.
The cost of EZ energy imports likely will rise further, but volumes could fall as Russia cuts off the gas.
Imports from China were still soaring in Q2, but we think they will cool soon.
All signs point to a drop in Swiss imported inflation; weaker growth will weigh on domestic prices.
Calling the peak in the headline rate is fraught with difficulty; our best bet is August.
A snap election may still be avoided, despite Italy’s Prime Minister Draghi’s resignation.
Gas prices likely will rise further as markets come around to the idea of sustained Russian supply cuts.
The weaker euro will keep energy inflation elevated, despite the recent fall in oil prices.
A price cap on Russian oil will be difficult for the West to enforce in practice.
EURUSD is closing in on parity and it won’t stop falling there; don’t buy the dip yet.
We think French GDP rose by 0.4-to-0.5% q/q in Q2, better than the INSEE estimate...
...But we are less optimistic than the statistical office on H2; we see growth of just 0.1% in Q3 and Q4.
Filter by Keyword
Filter by Region
Filter by Publication Type
Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)
Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence