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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

oil

21 Jan 2022 The ECB will Raise Rates in the First Half of 23; Conditions Apply

  • Inflation in the EZ has peaked, but core inflation above 2% will be a challenge for the ECB in 2022.
  • Watch services inflation closely after the decline in January; it could hit 3%-plus in Q3.
  • We see three conditions for the ECB to lift its deposit rate by 30bp in H1 2023.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 Jan 2022 Solid Q4 Retail Sales Growth Didn't Offset Weakness in Services

  • Retail sales data had a decent November, but online sales can't offset falling services spending.
  • Germany is on track to meet our expectations for Q4 growth, but we're reducing our forecasts in France.
  • EZ inflation has peaked; a strong rebound in the core will be a headache for the ECB in Q2 and Q3.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

23 Dec 2021 End in Sight for Surge in Energy Inflation, but Uncertainty Persists

  • Gas prices have further to rise in the short term boosting energy inflation into Q1.
  • But easing demand and base effects will then bring gas inflation hurtling down.
  • Political tensions with Russia, and Germany's plans to wind down nuclear energy, present upside risks.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

20 Dec 2021 EZ Inflation Will be Close to 3% in 2022, and the Core will Hit 2%

  • We are raising our headline inflation forecasts for next year, but we're still well behind the ECB.
  • Core inflation will hover around 2% for much of next year, causing a headache for the central bank.
  • More poor survey data reassert our view that Q4 and Q1 won’t be pretty for the EZ’s largest economy.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

13 Dec 2021 German Inflation is Running Hot; Industry in The Periphery Stutters

  • German core inflation will fall sharply in January, but then rebound; the HICP rate will stay sticky in 2022.
  • Spanish and Italian industrial production both fell at the start of Q4, in contrast to increases in the core...
  • ...We think industry will be a drag on GDP growth in Q4, just when risks to services activity are rising.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

10 Dec 2021 Real Net Exports in Germany are Rebounding, We Think

  • Germany's nominal trade surplus in goods fell further in October, but real net trade rebounded.
  • Net exports in services in Germany collapsed in Q3; that won't happen again in Q4.
  • The race to replace Jens Weidmann as Buba president is on; all contenders are relatively dovish.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

1 Dec 2021 Inflation is on Fire, but Not for Much Longer

  • EZ inflation is running red hot, hitting a record high of 4.9% in November.
  • Shipping costs to the Eurozone's most important trading partners are still rising...
  • ...Still, the fall in global measures points to shipping costs dragging headline inflation down.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

15 Nov 2021 How Inflationary is the Green Energy Transition in the EZ?

  • The green energy transition can be modelled as a sustained inflationary supply shock to the economy.
  • In the extreme case, a rise in oil and gas prices could lift EZ inflation by 0.5pp between now and 2026.
  • The price of CO2 emissions is rising; it could lift EZ inflation significantly over the next few years.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

10 Nov 2021 What is the Outlook for EZ Trade with its Main Trading Partners?

  • The trade wars between the EU and the U.S. seem over, but a new front is opening with the U.K.
  • Slowing demand from China is the biggest threat to euro area exports in the next six months.
  • Our forecasts for the U.S., U.K. and China point to a slowdown in EZ goods exports next year.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

21 Oct 2021 EZ Inflation is Still Red Hot, but a Cyclical Peak is Close

  • Euro area energy inflation will rise further in Q4, but we think the core rate has peaked.
  • Risks are tilted towards persistently high core and headline inflation in the next 12 months…
  • …But that doesn't justify the leap in Eurozone rate expectations in the past few weeks.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Oct 2021 EZ Equity Earnings are Rising, but Can the Upturn Continue?

  • EZ equity earnings have recovered handsomely this year, leaving valuations more attractive.
  • Markets still expect strong earnings growth in the next 12 months; the macro data suggest otherwise.
  • The pace of policy tightening implied by global rate expectations will soon be an issue for EZ equities.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 Oct 2021 The EZ Trade Deficits With Asia and China are Widening, Quickly

  • EZ imports are still outpacing exports by a hand- some margin; further downside for net trade in Q4?
  • The EZ trade deficits with Asia and China are widening, this could sting Q4 GDP growth.
  • Headline inflation in France is still rising, but the national core rate seems to have peaked.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Oct 2021 How to Understand and Use Inflation Expectations in the EZ

  • EZ inflation expectations don't predict inflation, but they're not entirely without value either.
  • Industrial production in France rose again in August; Q3 as a whole likely was decent.
  • We think the PMI surveys are underestimating actual GDP growth in Q3, especially in Spain.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 Oct 2021 Inflation in Switzerland is Likely as High as it Gets

  • Inflation in Switzerland likely has peaked, keeping it lower than the headline HICP in the EZ...
  • ...Currency effects will soon be a drag on headline inflation, to the SNB's dismay...
  • ...Meanwhile, rising natural gas prices are no worry for the Swiss, and wage pressures are limited.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 Oct 2021 On the Meaning of "Transitory" Inflation in the Eurozone

  • Inflation in the Eurozone rose further in September, but we are cautiously confident that this is the peak.
  • Core inflation will remain high in Q4, then fall in Q1, but then rebound quickly; this could unsettle bonds.
  • Ignore the negative messages from the monthly consumption data; spending jumped in Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 Sept 2021 GDP Growth in the EZ is Now Slowing, but How Quickly

  • The message from the PMI: The reopening boom is over, and supply-side woes are hitting demand.
  • We are adjusting our EZ GDP growth forecast for Q4 down a tad, to 0.7-to-0.8% quarter-on-quarter.
  • No change from the SNB, as expected; Spain's Q2 GDP growth cut by more than half.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 Sept 2021 Will High, and Rising, Gas Prices Keep EZ Inflation Elevated?

  • The trend in oil prices suggests energy inflation will soon fall and even turn negative next year in the EZ...
  • ...But high, and rising, gas prices will offset this impact, keeping energy inflation sticky.
  • We doubt this will lead the ECB to taper more quickly, particularly if some restrictions return in winter.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Sept 2021 The Red Hot EZ Inflation Prints Have Arrived, as Expected

  • EZ inflation is running hot, and it will rise further in Q4; will markets and the ECB flinch?
  • German unemployment fell further midway through Q3, and further improvement is in store.
  • Consumers' spending, ex-services, in France dipped in July, but Q3 as a whole will be decent.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 Aug 2021 Your Guide to the Somewhat Confusing July CPI in Germany

  • VAT base effects in core goods were the main driver of the July leap in German inflation.
  • The yawning gap between national and HICP services inflation will close soon; the latter will rebound.
  • We now see clear evidence of a reopening bump in hospitality prices; will it be sustained?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 Aug 2021 High Political Risk in the Andes Offsetting Upbeat Economic News

Peruvian New Sol —  President Castillo already on fire

Chilean Peso —The copper-driven sell-off

Colombian Peso — Deteriorating fundamentals

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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