EZ Datanote: EZ Money Supply, EZ, December 2023

In one line: Fall in M1 is fading.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: INSEE Consumer Confidence, France, January 2024

In one line: Perking up, but is it enough?

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Confidence, Germany, February 2024

In one line: Rebound in inflation and higher taxes hit confidence.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: IFO, Germany, January 2024

In one line: Pointing to downside risks to our rebound call.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Confidence, France, January

In one line: Mirroring the weak PMI.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance PMI, Germany, January 2024

In one line: Where is the recovery?

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance PMI, France, January 2024

In one line: Will the rebound be delayed?

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 January 2024 Eurozone Monitor PMIs support our view that GDP will rebound in Q1, marginally

•  ECB hawks will pounce on signs from the PMI of continued upward price pressures in services...
• ...But the PMIs continue to suggest the EZ economy remains in a rut & manufacturing costs are sliding.
• January’s inflation read will be more decisive for the timing of the ECB’s first rate cut; March is our call.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 January 2024 Eurozone Monitor ECB BLS supports the case for easing sooner rather than later

• Lending standards were tightened again in Q4, albeit less than in Q3; banks blamed risk perception.
• Demand for loans again fell across the board, partly reflecting the continued rise in interest rates.
• ECB doves can use the BLS to argue that financial conditions can ease, but will they?

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Consumer Confidence, Eurozone, January 2024

In one line:  Consumers still in the dumps.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Construction, Eurozone, November 2023

In one line: Q4 was ugly for construction.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ZEW, Germany, January 2024

In one line: In line with our view that the Q1 recovery in German GDP will be muted

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 January 2024 Eurozone Monitor House price growth will rise above zero only at the end of the year

• The fall in EZ residential house prices was extended in Q3, and likely again in Q4.
• In 2024, house prices should recover somewhat as demand rebounds, but not until the end of the year.
• We look for house prices to fall by 3.5% this year after a likely near-2% decline in 2023.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production & Trade, Eurozone, November

In one line: Industry was still in recession in Q4; boost from net trade was likely offset by weakness elsewhere last quarter. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Italy, November 2023

In one line: Ouch!

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Spain, November 2023

In one line: Outperforming France and Germany.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 January 2024 Eurozone Monitor Italy Close to the Bottom of the Pile Among the Majors in Q4

• Italian industrial output fell in November, defying the otherwise decent trail of hard data for Q4.
• We are sticking to our call for a 0.2% slide in GDP, setting up a weak base for this year.
• Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth will rebound this year, but the recovery will be gradual and tepid.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, November 2023

In one line: Wage growth will still slow if the labour market remains tight.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone